Mods: Please move this to the main CT forum if you think it belongs there. Cuban coins seem to be very expensive, partly due to its relatively low mintage, and partly, I believe, due to the embargo against Cuba by the US. When US-Cuban relations come to a point where trade bans are fully lifted, will we see a decrease in Cuban coin values in the short run? I know that there were talks with perhaps only minor practical changes so far, but maybe open trade is on the horizon soon. One example is the Cuban Peso from 1915-1934 (below). There aren't a lot of them around, but at the same time, they aren't especially rare either. But their prices compared to many other nations of the Americas is quite high. Will the US market see a substantial drop in value of this and other Cuban coins once the embargo is completely lifted? Should I hold out and see if an uncirculated example will decrease in value? Thanks in advance!
I would agree with probably not. Even though they may become more available I wouldn't expect them to come flooding in just because the embargo was lifted. There is also the possibility of them becoming more popular as they become more available which could drive the prices of the nicer pieces up.
I don't see that the embargo has or had anything to do with the market value. Your assumption seems to be that there is a large proportional supply in Cuba which will become available later. Regardless of the embargo, if there were coins available on the island which could have been sold, most likely it would have happened. Smuggling isn't really that hard and happens all the time.. I don't collect them but most Cuban coins probably left decades ago after the revolution. I collect Bolivian republic decimals (1864-1909). These coins are probably a lot scarcer but I'd say almost none of better ones remain locally because there is no market for them. I also presume (but do not actually know) that Cuban Americans are the primary collectors, there is a proportionately large concentration based in the US and if the supply is not that large as I suspect, that this is the reason for the relatively high prices which I have also noticed.
I suspect the opposite can happen! If you give it a thought - older collections with higher grade coins often get moved out of the country. In particular countries with chaotic history, coins are often not well preserved and hence it's easier to find higher grade coins outside home country. Russian coinage is a prime example. Once Cubans do get cashed up, it should not be a surprise that they want to collect higher quality examples.
I would expect the price to increase since they can be more actively traded. There are lots of Cuban Americans and the ability to more easily locate and trade coins will spur the market. There will be some big surprises among Cuban coins and which are desired by new collectors.
I don't disagree but so long as they remain a communist country it's unlikely that the average citizen is going to do a great deal better economically. There will be enough money in only a few years for people to buy new cars but it could be a long while until they have any middle class.
Coins from Cuba are also not allowed to be labeled as such on eBay. There are other ways to term it but worst case scenario, you could have your PayPal account removed due to legal violations, which PayPal always takes the most extreme interpretation of (their words). Cuban coins are also sold from other countries outside the US, so there are ways to get them. However, they're roundabout means and that only adds to the cost (these sellers know about US restrictions on Cuban made goods, and they will price accordingly; they too must be creative with their naming).
It's all about wanting something that you cannot have. If you want it you pay the price, no matter what. Dave
I don't think the prices are terribly high. With those mintages, aesthetics, and Cuba's renown, they actually seem a tad low. I lean towards prices not budging much or increasing if embargo is lifted
