Why would a 1999 NGC MS-70 ASE be worth $25,000 ?

i'm all for that, hey we have our OWN collections right? some guys are all about the raw eagle in danscos and who am i to tell them thats wrong...

 

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On how many occasions have you taken NGC or PCGS up on their "guarantee" with respect to a coin they graded 70 and which you found fault with?

Regardless of your answer, you make it sound as if grading is much more black and white and consistent than the market and reality have shown it to be, and over a long period of time.

 

i havent found fault with any of my ms70's yet. yes i know non perfect ms70's are certified. i know if i try to grade coins for more than 45 minutes i get eye strain and have trouble - i couldn't imagine doing it day in & day out. so mistakes are made. i'm just saying, for a "real" ms70 that you get and you verify for yourself, there is a difference over an ms69.

and you might get an ms69 to slab a ms70 but if you can see the flaw then its not a true grade. and if you're dealing with a $1500 MS70 coin that has flaws and the ms69 version is worth $80 then you will have problems selling it because you will be certain that buyer will look at it with a loupe. thats why people say buy the coin not the slab. theres always mistakes made even within ms69 grades. and why you can get a good deal on a really nice ms69 that looks perfect but then see a crappy ms69 with milk spots or hazing all over the back.
i own one ms69 that looks nearly flawless other than a light rub mark, and another ms69 that has half the coin full of milk spots. i am not saying the slab is always right or that its always consistent. the thread poster was saying theres no difference between an ms69 and ms70 and i'm saying there is, especially when graded correctly
or an ms70 with toning spots. i'm not saying there aren't mistakes.
i'm just saying i can tell the flaws in all my ms69's and cannot on my ms70's and that is a difference to me, no matter how small. those ms69's are "not perfect", and the ms70's are perfect as far as i can see even with a 10x loupe.
i'm not knocking ms69's by all means, most of my collection are ms69 due to price. and if you're just collecting specimens, ms69 is the way to go. but most ms69 are not numismatic items because they are far too common. they are just bullion plus that fun factor. ms70 gets you into the numismatic territory for certain years because they are truly rare.

 

i think you're missing the point though. you say "to those collectors and registry guys". that is a submarket who want the best and fight for the best coin. with ASE they are pretty much either handled and worth bullion, ms69, or ms70. ms68 and below is bullion, you're wasting your money slabbing it. so theres no distinction other than bullion, MS69, or MS70

start looking at 1921-D Walking Liberty and say why would anyone want to pay over $40k for an MS66 when you can buy a G10 for $300? They're the same coin. Made the same year in the same mint. Its because there are so few MS+ coins, thats why it deserves its grade and price. And theres a very very slim but strong market for that coin. A casual hobbiest would get that G10 or less and complete their collection.
Its 2 different markets. People are saying that theres no reason to pay extra for a true MS70 ASE, or that you cant tell the difference, well thats just silly. Maybe theres no reason for YOU to buy one, especially if you buy it at bullion prices or buy them raw. You're investing in bullion, not in numismatic coins. Same reason people pay thousands of times face value for rare nickels and quarters.
Yes prices go up and down just like houses go up and down and even silver goes up and down. If you loaded up on 2011 ASE's when it was $42 you just took a bath. There are just as many examples of numismatic coins from 10 years ago that are worth 10 fold. Most of the coins that lost a lot of value were truly speculative coins with a "perceived" rarity like the 1995-W silver eagle. There were 30,000 made and nearly every single one was slabbed, so it has a high survival rate. Low mintage but high survival. Versus a 1999 bullion that people bought for $9-10 as bullion and due to demand had poor mintage quality control. Where only 78 or so exist. If its a 99 and hasnt been slabbed, it probably won't be other than maybe 1 or 2 a year from old sealed rolls.
And whats interesting is I bought 2010 and 2011 MS70 silver ASE cheaper when silver was $37-42/oz than when it was $28-30 so semi-numismatic follows supply & demand not just spot.

Tell you what, as an example, you buy $3000 worth of silver. I'll take one of my MS70 25th anniv sets that i paid $300 for thats sealed and we'll see which is worth more in 5 years. Its going to be one of the KEY years besides 95-w since it has 2 special coins and has such low mintage.

 

If it were women instead of coins, would you rather have

two 9's or one 10 ?

and who does the grading ?

 

and if you're buying for silver value then you're not collecting nice older silver coins at all. you can't buy nice key date morgan dollars anywhere near silver value, they're worth $20 a coin and you're lucky to find rough coins or average extremely common coins for $25-30. we're not even speaking the same language. when silver was $30 i bought a bunch of scrap jewelry for $27/oz, i bought i as bullion. but if start talking numismatic we're not talking about spot other than the base price of these coins. that $200,000 morgan dollar will not go up or down depending on spot. spot could hit $200 and it could go down. or spot could hit $5 and that morgan could triple. thats numismatic, you're talking about bullion.
bullion is a good investment, in fact, its best to start out in bullion then if you fancy some nice coins, go slowly into numismatic. but the minute you started talking about spot vs numismatic coin values we got lost.

 

doug i think you made the point there. there are plenty of people who would take 2 5's over 1 10 lol...
and there are plenty of people who take 1 10 over 2 9's. in fact, the entire entertainment business is about marketing products based on the 10's out there.
i think most of these comments people are generalizing saying noone should pay more than a couple bucks over spot for any coin, or whatever. i clearly said many times there are different types of collectors and each favors their own. my point was there is a difference between certain coins, and some people don't care which is fine. its THEIR collection after all, they can do whatever they want.

 

I have "learned" over the years that questioning the graders can be quite expensive and that the TPG's will protect their opinions regardless of whether or not you agree.

I recently purchased a couple of 1972-S MS68 IKE's that I could guarantee that if I'd have cracked them out and resubmitted them that they'd come back as MS66.
I decided to exercise my "grade guarantee" rights and submitted the coins under the grade guarantee.
I learned that exercising a grade guarantee isn't a "freebie" as I was charged $27 per coin before they would even look. If I was right, I got my $27 back. If I was wrong, they kept the $27.

I learned that after paying my $27 and waiting nearly 60 days for what I felt were quite simple results, that the graders felt the coins were in fact MS68's and as such, correctly graded. That lesson, cost me $54 plus return shipping.

Often times, what one thinks they know about MS/PR70 coins and specific "Grade Guarantee's", can be an expensive lesson since the TPG's are fully aware of their particular standards and the expense required to correct such "mistakes in opinion".

While I do not question your abilities, I do question the statement: "I'm going to call NGC or PCGS and claim that written guarantee because they failed." as it's often times not quite as simple as that.

 

That's what I was getting at when I asked how many times he had utilized a grading guarantee on a 70 coin.

I maintain that it is impossible for a grading company to be objective and fair, when they are the ones who get to decide if their previous grading opinion was "correct". Especially, with the accompanying financial consequences involved.

And, no matter how perfect an owner of a 70 coin thinks or knows it to be, if cracked out and submitted for grading, it could easily grade lower.

 

you know what you're absolutely right. i probably wouldnt hassle with TPG, but i would return it to the person who sold it to me. many reputable sellers allow returns because as we all agree TPGs arent perfect. im not sure how this thread got turned around to me advocating TPGs are perfect, my original point was that i can personally tell the difference between every ms69 coin and every ms70 coin i have, and would pay more for the ms70 if it is truly ms70, and many other people can tell too.
i jumped on when the point was being made that noone should ever pay more for a ms70 than an ms69 because they're all the same coin and noone can tell the difference and i disagree. i'm in the market for a 1995-w and you better bet i will look at it closely, and if i find one that i think is flawless i will pay extra money for it because you're talking about the difference between a $2800 coin and a $20,000 coin.

but on this we all agree, you buy the coin not the slab.

 

I think supradealz did quite well defending his statements. Probably the best arguement for MS70 coins I have read so far. I'm one of those MS69 buyers out there. I do buy some MS and PR 70 coins, but only when the premium is small separating the two. But I now have a better understanding on why some people will dig into their pockets much deeper than I will. Very good points were made by all the posters here.

 

All I'm going to say on this topic is this:

Anyone who can consistently tell the difference between MS 69 and MS 70 coins must be a much better grader than I am -- or they are overstating their own ability -- because I do not possess the skill to do so and it is not for lack of trying.

 

Who the devil would want two women in their life? Things are complicated enough with one........

 

i used to work in software so i spent time under a loupe figuring out how to tell counterfeit from real. the first time someone showed me how to read microprinting i was like wow i never noticed that. but once you see it you can see it even without a loupe you just cant make it out. so some of the skills cross over. once i see a little pinhead blemish on a coin i can see it from arms length away.

its a little bit obsessiveness to detail and being able to do comparative analysis.

 

I meant in the same "session", so to speak....

 

Just having some fun Doug.

 

I don't care if you're Mark Feld (i.e. a former grader, whom I suspect will agree with me), much less a former programmer who is detail oriented, owns a loupe and has studied these coins in detail. Join the club.

Bottom line: I don't believe you have the ability to distinguish between 69 and 70 TPG-graded coins with consistency if the grades are hidden, nor can you predict with consistency how the TPGs will grade raw coins at this level. Anyone can do it with coins they know (i.e. in their collection), nobody I've met in my years of collecting can do it blind.

That's not a comment on your ability to grade so much as it is the inconsistency in these grades by TPGs.

In other words, no level of detail focus or comparative analysis will allow you to predict the unpredictable.

Said in yet another way, coin grading is subjective, by definition, and subjectivity is inherently unpredictable.

If you can accurately guess grades at the 69/70 level, you will be the first person in this hobby I've met capable of such a feat, and I will happily eat crow.

Respectfully...Mike