Reply to Thread

Message:: [QUOTE="GoldFinger1969, post: 4274040, member: 73489"]On the DJIA ???? That's a loss equating to the 1929-32 collapse.  That was a multi-year collapse in GDP; this is at worst 1-2 quarters of negative GDP growth. Goldman forecast a 25% (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) drop in real GDP in Q2.  There are no quarterly data prior to 1947, but the real GDP fell 13% in 1932, the 3rd consecutive year of negative real GDP growth.  Nominal GDP fell even faster -- about -23% (because prices fell faster). We had 4 consecutive negative years of GDP growth and a collapse of 25% in real GDP and 50% in nominal GDP. Nothing like that now, so I think the lower bound is the 2008 Financial Crisis. That's the "worst case" -- I can make a case we are bottoming here or S&P 2,000.<img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie100" alt=":wideyed:" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" /> Or not........<img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie8" alt=":D" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" />[/QUOTE]