Why is Morgan Dollar numismatic value dropping?

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

I guess we will see. The bottom will fall out eventually

 

I’m in my mid 60’s so I’ve seen my share of Morgan dollars. I buy US coins mostly from shops, shows, and antique stores.

What I have noticed is yes, there is some over grading but what I see more of is over pricing by the sellers. I’m not sure what a fair premium is for a Morgan, but $30 plus is pushing it for me.

The artificially toned Morgan market, makes it even harder and more confusing to determine the value.

So I pass on the Morgans.

As kids we thought the obverse was boring, we liked the eagle on the reverse.

We called it the Rodan coin.



.

 

But my point is that unless you get "strong hands" buyers who want to own coins long-term (years or decades) -- i.e., THE PUBLIC -- you can't have 100 dealers at a coin show all selling each other their stuff at minimal markup (if any) and making a profit, right ? In fact, they can't all be dealing with one another (that 80% you cite) and selling at a LOSS, either. Pretty much net-net they're breaking even dealing with one another -- it's a zero-sum game.

So you need the public to buy and move prices up, or if prices are falling, it's probably a good indicator (in fact, it MUST be the case) that the public is a net seller of coins (or we are still burning off the excess of a previous bubble, something I have talked about before).

Again, dealers aren't in business to break-even or lose money....a loss here or there might make sense but too many losses among too many dealers would indicate public liquidation of coins net-net.

I don't know if they are "low" but they seem realistic. I do see that the lower bound of the estimate seems to be the dividing line where you don't go much above except in rare cases. When you add in all the other taxes and fees, buying at the lower bound means you pay closer to the upper in many cases. Or even above it.

 

These discussions are leaving out a critical part of the Numismatic Circle of Life.

None of us live forever, and none of us can take our collections with us when we go. Some of us sell off our collections while we're still sharp, and get reasonable prices -- but many leave their coins without instructions to heirs who are completely uninterested in them, and those heirs either cash them in at the bank, or take them to a dealer who offers a small fraction of their value.

And, of course, some coins get stolen, and again "re-enter the market" at a hefty discount.

I just finished selling off a couple heavy bags of common silver for a friend. Her father tucked them away in tobacco cans. It was over $1500 worth at today's prices; she was expecting a few hundred. If she'd walked into any shop, I give 80% odds that the first words out of the dealer's mouth would be some variant on "what do you want for them?" (I've been in shops before). If she said "$500", a few dealers might say "oh, they're worth more than that" -- but I'm betting most would say "all right" (possibly after a skeptical scowl), and some would say "best I can do is $200".

I don't know if this part of the business exerts significant downward pressure on things like nicer Morgans. But I can't pretend that it doesn't happen.

 

I agree, the obverse is boring! I display them in my albums with the reverse showing. And yea, it does look like Rodan!

 

Great discussion - thanks for everyone's input!

I've been assembling two different coin sets over the last 5 years (a 1925 type set and an 8 coin gold type set), and within that time I have seen a lot more specific coins in specific grades going down rather than up. In response, I have slowed down my purchases and am spending more time researching than before.

I recently completed the 8 coin gold type set, and will be expanding it to the 12 coin set. I used to get "antsy" about grabbing what I thought were good deals/auctions, but I'm much more relaxed now having seen the downward trend in prices.

Patience is a virtue!

 

HUH ???

How can 100 guys or 2 guys trade back-and-forth and they ALL make money ? It's zero-sum.

I'm not talking about selling older inventory they purchased a long time ago on the cheap. And presumably they could sell that to the public and make a profit, too.

The more $$$ made by the first 4 SELLERS....the bigger the loss or underwater amount the 5th person, the BUYER, is....right ?

I get that the coin show is a great opportunity for dealers to find specific inventory. But in the balance, it has to be zero-sum. If not, that video I posted of the Baseball Card gatherings in Parsippany, NJ....where you only had dealers.....would also be profitable since all the dealers are trading with one another. In fact, the video told of how the industry and hobby are dying.

If all the coin dealers spend $1,000,000 buying other dealers coins...are you saying that's as good as me and the folks at CT going in with $1,000,000 and taking stuff off their hands ?

No...I completely agree. I know it's a tough business. I WANT the folks who I buy from to make $$$ -- better them than Ebay or HA.

I just don't see the mathematics of a bunch of dealers all trading with one another and ALL profiting from buying and selling....I see it as more zero-sum....I see specific NEEDS being filled and maybe you get a good deal where someone has such a low cost-basis that they are happy to make 80% on the coin and not 100% and the buyer gets a price low enough where he can re-sell it to the public and make a nice spread....but again...in the aggregate....???

Maybe I'm missing something. But I can't believe that $1 MM of dealers buying-and-selling to one another is the same as $1 MM coming from the public or CT.

Again...no argument...but can they ALL be making money trading with one another ???? I know I'm sounding like a broken record, but in the end without the public I see it as zero-sum.

Maybe this is why I never went into business for myself.

You might be right, Doug....I'm just having trouble visually seeing it.

It comes down to me as....what's better...dealers buying from one another (zero-sum for the most part) or new $$$ from the public and collectors like me (new money + buying at retail, not wholseale).

But I do appreciate your posts, I'm learning.

I think.

 

I've been looking at Heritage Auctions pretty consistently for months...not following all types of coins but for the most popular U.S. coins....rarely going WAY above the upper estimate range.

For Ancients/Foreign, it might well be different. Haven't looked at as much there.

I wonder how many registered HA/Stacks/other sites users are from overseas ? That would show up in more foreign/Ancient bidding that you wouldn't see on most domestic U.S. coins.

 

Regarding the 4 dealers making money by selling the same coin - as long as the fifth dealer has a customer willing to pay more than what the fifth dealer paid - BOOM - they all make a profit.

 

Doug, don't you agree that $1 MM of buying from the public/CT members is better than the same dealers spending $1 MM amongst themselves ?

 

Now you see why I am not a full-time coin dealer.

@C-B-D might have some insight. He does not sell at full retail so that things move. I do the same thing.

@messydesk might have some insight as well

 

One dealer I know says that if he doesn't lose money on 20% of his stuff, it means he's not buying enough coins. Presumably that 20% is not going to the retail customer.

 

There are many coins I buy right then flip them at show set up at for minimal profit get inventory movement.

other coins I may have only one in room so sell them for retail only so get much better profit.

on generic dollars and walkers I offer bluesheet

 

Well, there was The Great Southern Hoard recently introduced to the market. I believe it was 13,000 New Orleans Mint Morgan Dollars. I figure that had something to do with it along with the other reasons mentioned above.