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Why is machine doubling not worth much?
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<p>[QUOTE="justafarmer, post: 829176, member: 3926"]Let’s approach this from a different angle.</p><p>The 1980-P cent mintage is approximately 10 times greater than the 1960-P cent mintage. 7.5 billion for 1980P compared to 750 million for 1960P. Keeping the assumption that a working die’s useful life is 1 million strikes means 8250 different obverse working dies were placed in service to produce this coinage. Suppose you have a bin full of 100,000 coins (a true random sample) that fairly represents the total population of these coins. In other words your bin contains (1960-P) 9090 cents and (1980-P) 90910 cents. There are I believe 6 different 1960P and 1 1980P obverse doubled dies cataloged on coppercoins for a total of 7. That means 7 million of the 8.25 billion coins struck exhibit the characteristics of an obverse doubled die. In other words 7 out of every 8250 coins were struck by an obverse doubled die. That means 84 of the coins in your bin were struck by an obverse doubled die.</p><p><br /></p><p>If you leave the bin as is the odds of you reaching in and pulling a 1960P-1DO-001 from the bin are the same as pulling a 1980P-1DO-001 from the bin. It is true my odds of pulling a 1960P doubled die from the bin is 6 to 1 greater than pulling a 1980P doubled die from the bin but still none of the doubled dies are rarer than the other. There are 12 specimens of each doubled die in my bin.</p><p><br /></p><p>Now if I were to sort this bin into 2 bins – 1 containing only 1980P cents and 1 containing only 1960P cents there would be 90910 coins in the 1980P bin and 12 would be doubled dies and there would be 9090 coins in the 1960P bin and 72 would be doubled dies. Now if I were to reach into the 1980P bin my odds of pulling a doubled die from there is 7500 to 1 but if I were to reach into the 1960P bin my odds of pulling a doubled die from there would be 750 to 1. But in truth the 1980P-1DO-001 isn’t any rarer than any of the 1960P doubled dies.</p><p><br /></p><p>So I’ll state my point once again but in a different way DOUBLED WORKING DIES may be rarer than Working Dies that are not doubled but the coinage they strike isn’t any rarer than the coinage struck by any other working die. A doubled die coin’s value comes the ability to use the doubled characteristics and easily attribute it to and identify the specific working die that struck it. </p><p><br /></p><p>Does this clear it up?[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="justafarmer, post: 829176, member: 3926"]Let’s approach this from a different angle. The 1980-P cent mintage is approximately 10 times greater than the 1960-P cent mintage. 7.5 billion for 1980P compared to 750 million for 1960P. Keeping the assumption that a working die’s useful life is 1 million strikes means 8250 different obverse working dies were placed in service to produce this coinage. Suppose you have a bin full of 100,000 coins (a true random sample) that fairly represents the total population of these coins. In other words your bin contains (1960-P) 9090 cents and (1980-P) 90910 cents. There are I believe 6 different 1960P and 1 1980P obverse doubled dies cataloged on coppercoins for a total of 7. That means 7 million of the 8.25 billion coins struck exhibit the characteristics of an obverse doubled die. In other words 7 out of every 8250 coins were struck by an obverse doubled die. That means 84 of the coins in your bin were struck by an obverse doubled die. If you leave the bin as is the odds of you reaching in and pulling a 1960P-1DO-001 from the bin are the same as pulling a 1980P-1DO-001 from the bin. It is true my odds of pulling a 1960P doubled die from the bin is 6 to 1 greater than pulling a 1980P doubled die from the bin but still none of the doubled dies are rarer than the other. There are 12 specimens of each doubled die in my bin. Now if I were to sort this bin into 2 bins – 1 containing only 1980P cents and 1 containing only 1960P cents there would be 90910 coins in the 1980P bin and 12 would be doubled dies and there would be 9090 coins in the 1960P bin and 72 would be doubled dies. Now if I were to reach into the 1980P bin my odds of pulling a doubled die from there is 7500 to 1 but if I were to reach into the 1960P bin my odds of pulling a doubled die from there would be 750 to 1. But in truth the 1980P-1DO-001 isn’t any rarer than any of the 1960P doubled dies. So I’ll state my point once again but in a different way DOUBLED WORKING DIES may be rarer than Working Dies that are not doubled but the coinage they strike isn’t any rarer than the coinage struck by any other working die. A doubled die coin’s value comes the ability to use the doubled characteristics and easily attribute it to and identify the specific working die that struck it. Does this clear it up?[/QUOTE]
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Why is machine doubling not worth much?
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