Why is 1909S VDB more expensive than 1909S?

I took the plunge and put out some big $ (ouch) for a 1909S yesterday.

While researching the coin, I went to Heritage, PCGS, and NGC to look at the recent price structure. I found the oddest thing - the rest of you probably realize this, but I did not. Here we have the population and value for 1909S VDB.
https://www.ngccoin.com/coin-explor...9-1958-pscid-99/1909-s-vdb-1c-ms-coinid-12426.

MS62: pop 316, $1775
MS63: pop 330, $1900
MS64: pop 286, $2150
MS65: pop 94, $2800
MS66: pop 16, $5250

And here we have the same for 1909S.
https://www.ngccoin.com/coin-explor...58-pscid-99/1909-s-lincoln-1c-ms-coinid-12432

MS62: pop 87, $350
MS63: pop 86, $380
MS64: pop 84, $450
MS65: pop 20, $565
MS66: pop 3, $1100

How has the 1909S VDB kept this aura of mystery about it for 107 years without people realizing it is not actually the scarcer coin? MS66 has five times as many examples, at five times the price.

Oh, yes, and everyone likes pictures.

 

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If you compare the actual number of coins minted, you'll see that the VDB has a considerably smaller mintage. There are thousands and thousands of them available, but overall they are scarcer.

The population data is skewed by selection bias - because they are so much more popular, more of them have been submitted. They are popular, well marketed, widely known, and have strong demand - and thus, a high price.

 

And one of the reasons there are so many more certified is because there are so many counterfeit S-VDB's out there. I have heard many say the odds are if you buy an uncertified S-VDB, the odds are it is a fake. Not saying there are not fake 09-S's, but significantly fewer of them. Thus there are many more uncertified 09-S's.

 

Nice coin you picked up.

 

Thanks. I am eager to see it in person.

While searching on the internet and eBay, the search engines kept returning both S and S VDB. The feeling was that the population of offerings was also skewed towards the VDB.

I don't disagree about selection bias. But didn't that start as soon as the VDB was yanked from production? I thought that the VDB was hoarded but the 09S was ignored. So there may be a factor where there really are more high grade examples, and more have been graded.

I'll try to find that comment.

 

From the NGC site:

"Always treated as a poor relation to its predecessor having the initials V.D.B., the 1909-S cent without initial is actually much more challenging to find across all Mint State grades. Though almost four times as many of this revised variety were coined, it was not until the 1930s that there was much interest in collecting Lincoln Cents. Only then did prices for the 1909-S begin to advance. "

So I still think the question still has some basis for discussion - and the ongoing selection bias is still strong even if the numbers don't support it.

 

Very nice coin. Not my top choice to spend $1,000+ on but to each their own.

 

It was much, much less - I researched it pretty hard. And there isn't a VDB in my plans, nor 22 no D, nor 55 DDO. I like to have something a little special about each coin but don't care about "completeness ", however that is defined.

 

Maybe this will give you some perspective. I started searching Lincolns ~1953. I managed to find a 31-S and 2 09-S's. For a fair time, I was getting $20+ each week or so for several years, but I never managed to find an single S-VDB or a 14-D.

 

I was searching about 12-15 years later and didn't find anything that great.

Yet I think it's consistent. When we roll-searched we saw a sampling of the coins that were circulated. You should see four times as many of 09S vs. 09S VDB. But upper grades depend more on how many were set aside, and apparently the VDB had the advantage there. The circulated ratio should be 1 to 4 one way, while the current mint state ratio is 4 to 1 the other way.

To my thinking, the 09S is a serious bargain in any MS grade.

 

I will give you another reason for the pricing. There are just about as many ms67 1943 Lincolns as there are total ms67 for all the rest of Lincolns (wheats) combined. Yet somehow they command a price higher than several others. I think it has to do with 7070 albums (type sets). There is only one year for a steel cents to put in that hole. Thus the demand. Just like the VDB cents except they only have half a year. You have to have either the 09-VDB or the 09-S VDB to put in that hole. BTW, there are 2393 MS66 09-VDB's, but only 556 09-'s. But they both command about the same price.

 

This makes sense to me. All the albums give a spot to each of the coins with a popular mystique. And that reinforces it even more.

 

I have a nice XF 09 S-VDB. I may get a 22 Plain (Strong Reverse) someday if finances dictate. I bought my 55 Double Die back in 2005 back when my XF/AU was only going for $575. It's now the most valuable coin in my entire collection.

 

VERY nice coin, by the way. That's about the most RED "Red and Brown" designated coin I've ever seen.

 

Thanks. I will try to update the thread with pics when it arrives. (But I am a lousy photographer.)

 

I think it's a case of the coin loosing just a little blast red and more likely :
By "netting" the color they did not need to "net" the grade down to MS-64 Red due to all the carbon spots on both sides.

 

I did suspect those might be carbon spots on the reverse. Before I took the plunge I took a long look at them in the photo. I think they are dirt, but I will find out for sure in a few days.

So to paraphrase, they may have chosen to assign RB instead of RD, instead of dropping the numerical grade a full point.

I usually buy raw, or coins I think are undergraded. I think I can safely say I try to buy the coin and not the slab. But in this case, I had some lingering concerns. I am supporting my own judgement with the thought that CAC had the coin in hand and took a close look. We'll see.

 

Not only that, but there are still plenty of raw 09 VDBs in upper grades, like mine. I guess the mystique remains strong - they were interesting in 1909 and they are now.

 

That's very hard to believe. Nevertheless, IMO, anyone who buys a 1909 VDB cent in any MS grade when they can get a 1909-S for a little more money is ...well, perhaps they have a registry set they are working on.

 

They ARE carbon spots and no telling when they occurred or if they got larger and more numerous after the coin was slabbed. The TPGS's use compressed air to blow off the coin and case before sealing. I suspect that on occasion some moisture is transferred to coins.

You have a nice genuine coin w/CAC sticker. Easy for me to say that perhaps you should find one without any spots and trade out of yours.