I set out on my journey is assembling a twelve Caesars set and have enjoyed it immensely. I remember at the outset making a foolish statement that I wanted to source them all in a denarius denomination and that was told that would be exceedingly difficult. And I did discover that to be the case along the way. I remember looking at Caligula denarii that were extremely pricey. Even more than Julius Caesar denarii….. So now I wonder why. Seems the denarii were the the more common denominations of the time. Why would a Caligula or Claudius denarius seem to be so much rarer than the others?
I would guess the best answer is 'sufficient supply'. Gaius/Claudius follow the extensive issues of Tiberius, add the RR in circulation - little need. The production we see are no more than publicity pieces.
You have to look at how long they were emperor-- Claudius ruled only 4 years. You also have to factor in popularity. Tiberius "tribute" denarii are pretty common, but still demand a premium.
I think that is what confounds me a bit. The first ruler I sourced was a Vitellius denarius and he only ruled eight months as I recall. And it wasn’t a very pricey coin.
I’m not sure but I would think that an person that served as Caesar and the availability comes down to the length of time they served as Caesar. If they served longer then more coins would have been produced. If they served a short time than not as many coins would be minted. So it all boils down to supply and demand.
When you say “popular”, I assume you are referring to current popularity among us coin geeks, right? No question that he wasn’t popular in his own time.
Yeh, as with so many things -- rather than there being one simple answer that holds to be 100% accurate in all situations, a more nuanced explanation is really required to fully grasp the issue. But as @Collecting Nut said, if you keep in mind the famous economic law of "supply and demand", you will have a large part of the answer. In a very real way "demand" = "popularity" as expressed above. Likewise "supply" = extant examples available (which is of course largely dependent on how many of the coins were originally produced -- which itself is largely dependent on the length of time an emperor reigned as expressed above). But again, it is admittedly more nuanced. Part of that is because both "supply" and "demand" are fluid rather than static. The finding and coming to market of just one hoard can alter the "supply" enough to impact the value of a coin type. It has been a few decades since I studied economics, so I just asked Mr. Google what the main points are within the Law of Supply & Demand, and found this: 1) If supply increases and demand stays the same, price will go down. 2) If supply decreases and demand stays the same, price will go up. 3) If supply stays the same and demand increases, price will go up. 4) If supply stays the same and demand decreases, price will go down. Of course even my slight expansion of what had already been said in this thread is not sufficient to fully answer the question by @Randy Abercrombie because other factors come into play also. As examples are the phrases seen in coin listings such as, "rare this nice", "rare in this grade", "such perfect centering on both sides is quite rare", "rare sub-type", "rare variety", etc. And the beat goes on . . . and the beat goes on . . . (Yes, that last phrase may invite an earworm into those over 65.) ;-)
