Which grade Morgan to focus on??

I am still in the "study before you buy" mode, but I think I would like to get a few slabbed Morgans for several reasons, namely I like them, they are pretty & popular & fairly affordable, and they have a decent chunk of intrinsic silver content. Also while comparing a 2000 redbook to a 2010 I see that on average a number of the common date ms63's have doubled in price in 10 yrs, with the CC's doing much better than that. I presume the ms64 & ms65's did at least as well if not better.
I am NOT betting on retiring to the islands a few years after buying a few morgans, but if I am collecting them it would be nice to pick some that will increase in value instead of remaining flat. Knowing that it still largely depends on the individual coin, and with these thoughts in mind, would I be better off to concentrate on ms63, ms64 or ms65 morgans?? Thansk, Bill.

 

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MS64 & MS65 will give you a much better chance for appreciation since they have better eye appeal than most MS63's. Forget about values in the Red Book, but if you can get past copies of the CDN Greysheet, you will see that most increases, signified by a "+", are in the MS64 or better columns.

I try to stick to MS64 or better, and I have some in MS66 & MS67, but the only time I will go below that is when the price of the coin is more than I can afford.

Chris

 

If you are going for a nice collection, I vote for MS64. It is right before a big bump in the prices, although it is not exactly inexpensive itself. Another way to go is MS60, the cheapest mint coin available. But, it is a personal preference as I am sure you know. That is what I would suggest for the average collector.

If it were me, I would go for grades 3-5.

 

His concern was deciding on a grade that would have a better chance for appreciation, so MS60 is not a consideration.

Chris

 

Well, that is over my head. I figured %-wise, it would all be the same. But I really do not the experience to make that call.

 

I try to stay in 64 to 65 range and sometime go to the 66 range if the price is right

 

I went through this exact same mental exercise recently. I first decided to go with PCGS graded coins. I next decided MS64 for the bulk of my purchases, with the option to go higher for more "collectible" pieces. The reason, MS64 is still affordable for me ($30 to $60 range) and the coins look pretty good. I left the option to go higher for more "collectible" pieces because those are the ones that will be worth significantly more in 10, 20 or 30 years and I'd like to have the most upswing as possible at my spending comfort level. So far I have seven MS64s and one MS65 CC.

This is my first slabbed collection. I might look at Washington quarters next.

 

Doug,

Based on those charts, it would appear that now might be a good time to buy since the market seems to be rather static. Wouldn't you think that there may be an upward trend coming within the next few years?

Chris

 

I know you are right about that and I may be too pessimistic, but I just can't see a big drop in prices anytime soon.

 

That was kinda what I was thinking. And no offense meant, but if I'm a dummy then it's kinda comforting to know I'm not the ONLY ONE!!!

 

No offense taken. I just started collecting 6 months ago when my 10 year old showed an interest.

Here are our Morgans:

 

I also semi recently started collecting Morgans and Decided on a Pcgs Set. Originally I wanted to do MS64 because there are so many affordable coins in this grade, and all in all they are pleasing to look at. Unfortunaly after I bought 7 or 8 for 40-60 I started to realize that some of the most common dates are actually still very affordable in MS65 and even MS66...Unfortunately I had an impulse buy on a 1878 8tf and 1878 7/8tf in grades MS61 and 63..neither of which I am happy with. So now I have to go back and revamp my collection strategy. I decided to accept the wisdom of so many on this forum and buy the best I can afford. Except for the coins where ms60-63 are my price range. There I will probably look for attractive Au coins. I got caught up in the rush and now I have a couple of regrets...

 

The reason that I was thinking we may be headed for an upward trend is because silver is at a relatively high price. Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the last spike in silver in 2008?

Chris

 

If I'm reading this silver chart correctly, the 2008 silver price never went below the Jan/Feb, 2006 price level which is less than 3 years, not 10 years. It started 2008 at about $11.40, peaked in Feb/Mar at about $20.50 and ended 2008 at about $10.70. Also, in one of your earlier posts you said that common-date Morgans up to, and including, MS64 had a tendency to trend with the spot price of silver. So, don't you think the rise in the price of silver leading up to the peak in 2008 and the drop in price afterward spurred Morgan sales? What am I missing, here?

Chris

 

Higher grades have done better in absolute terms and in higher rates of return for a long time when it comes to numismatic value. IF, you think that trend will continue, then much of the tried and true advice to invest in higher grade material for NUMISMATIC VALUE is valid.

Investment in lower grade material for it's BULLION value is far riskier as any commodity investment is by nature.

The real trick is to figure out whether current circumstances make NUMISMATIC investment more attractive than BULLION investment to you based on your personal tolerance of risks and perception of the times. Any person can find a reason for none, either or both to be a reasonable way to invest. Some will be right and some will be wrong.

I do recommend that you avoid any investment in a fund rather than physical assets because of the risks associated with that structure. Margin purchases are only for the daredevils who are comfortable risking financial devastation for the hope of accurately forecasting the market AND getting out before the forecast trend reverses. Then again, I'm risk averse and you might not be.

 

Thanks, Marshall, but we were talking about the silver market as it applies to Morgan dollars in various grades.

Chris

 

I'll try to be clearer. Lower grade Morgans which are near to their bullion content and therefore have a low numismatic premium should be considered a Bullion play with all the volatility associated with it. The higher grade Morgans have a higher numismatic premium over bullion value. Those have normal market risks and price swings associated with normal market investment.

The grade you choose should be one that is associated with the type of investment you are comfortable making. Lower graded if you want to play the commodities market and High Grade (MS65+) for normal investment markets. The middle grades will tend to be left for collectors with moderate means rather than investors.

Is this clearer?