Which Coin is a Better Investment ?

Discussion in 'Ancient Coins' started by Al Kowsky, Sep 21, 2019.

  1. Al Kowsky

    Al Kowsky Supporter! Supporter

    I'm proposing a hypothetical question in this thread. If given a choice between the ancient Kushan gold coin and the American Jefferson nickel dated 1945-D, pictured below, which coin do you feel would make a better investment ?

    11200404.jpg
    India, Kushan Empire. Vima Kadphises, Circa AD 113-127, Gold Double Dinar: 15.93 gm, 24 mm, 12 h, Baktria Mint, graded EF by CNG. Photo courtesy of CNG. This coin recently sold in the CNG Auction 112, Lot 404, for $18,880.00 (including the buyers premium) with an estimate of $20,000.00.

    721078-1 (2).jpg 37148069_max.jpg
    This Jefferson nickel is the highest graded coin of its date and mint mark with a census population of 1. Photo courtesy of PCGS. It has a PCGS valuation of $20,000.00, and is currently being offered for auction by G.C. with an opening bid of $25,000.00.

    Here are some thoughts to consider. It's entirely possible that a large hoard of Kushan gold coins like the one pictured above could be discovered, drastically dropping the value of of this coin. On the other hand, 37,158,000 Jefferson nickels dated 1945-D were struck, and it's entirely possible that some collector could have original unopened rolls of these nickels with some coins equal or superior to this coin, drastically dropping the value of this coin. There's no doubt in my mind which coin would make a better investment. What do you think ?
     
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  3. physics-fan3.14

    physics-fan3.14 You got any more of them.... prooflikes?

    It is dangerous to think of coins as investments.

    In terms of value, I think the gold piece is probably a better value. The Jefferson's value seems tenuous, but I keep being surprised by the prices paid.
     
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  4. Mat

    Mat Ancient Coincoholic

    I myself would pick the Kushan, sure it's a bit of less value than the Jefferson currently, but from my own collecting perspective, I would find the history and art of the Kushan much more enjoyable than the boring Jefferson nickel.

    Both as you mentioned, could have new one's surface & causing the value to fall.

    But it's your money, do what your gut tells you. U.S. collectors pay stupid money for a graded printed piece of paper & plastic tombs.
     
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  5. Ed Snible

    Ed Snible Well-Known Member

    You didn't mention it, but this 1945-D nickel is the finest known of the 37 million struck. https://www.pcgs.com/coinfacts/coin/1945-d-5c-fs/84026 . There are 4 in MS-68, and only one in this grade, MS-68+.

    The value of the finest-known of anything usually corresponds to the wealth of the under-bidder. In the US the wealth of the top 0.1% has been rising very rapidly. If any of them collect war nickels, the very best example will appeciate in value.

    I don't know how many Vima Kadphises staters there are out there. This one looks super nice. I would be honored to have this one in my collection. Many Indian-Americans are doing well, and India as a whole is doing much better. Check out this chart of their per-capita GDP:
    GDP_per_capita_of_India_(1820_to_present).png
    India has always had elites that can afford Kushan staters but we are seeing the country climb out of poverty. Typically the values of the good coins go up in times like this.

    I'd say both coins are of sufficient quality to be investment-grade.
     
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  6. Silverlock

    Silverlock Supporter! Supporter

    US coin prices have declined substantially in the past few years. The MS70 hype seems to be playing out as well. I’d say the ancient is a better “investment”, though putting the money in QQQ would be a better option.
     
  7. Al Kowsky

    Al Kowsky Supporter! Supporter

    Please read my description of the Jefferson nickel again :smuggrin:.
     
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  8. ToughCOINS

    ToughCOINS Dealer Member Moderator

    Registry collectors often drive pricing to artificially high levels because ego and emotion play too large a part in determining how desirable the coin is . . . the attributes of the coin often being forgotten in favor of the label in its holder. Even if a coin is improperly graded, the number still influences the registry collector, and unduly so.

    Pass on the nickel and buy the stater (even though I only know US coinage).
     
  9. johnmilton

    johnmilton Well-Known Member

    First I don't view coins as an investment. Having said that, some things have a better chance of holding their value.

    I have never been a fan of high grade, super high priced, common date modern coins. To me they have become prime examples of the "bigger fool theory." The main attraction, which really drives them is the coin registry p---ing contest.

    You take a coin, like this war nickel, that is super common, and drive the price to the moon because it is "the finest graded." Notice that I didn't say "the finest known" because no one really knows what that is given the total populaton of surviving examples. Add to that "grade-flation" and your "finest graded" could become one of a herd of coins unless you re-submit it for grading hoping for a higher grade.

    I don't know anything about the gold piece. I assume that it's rare. In that case, I'd rather have it, but I won't keep it for long, because it does not interest me.
     
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  10. Inspector43

    Inspector43 70 Year Collector

    I don't care about labels and plastic. Date, Mint Mark and Eye Appeal, in my opinion, are the essential attributes to coin collecting. Collecting plastic became almost essential with the advent of on-line auctions and the rash of counterfeits. And, it is more of an ego thing to pass around in a clique. I have some 1944 D Jefferson's, but I found them all in circulation.
     
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  11. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    I'm pretty sure that the top-pop nickel is more vulnerable to sudden deflation, because if and when anyone turns up an MS-69 (or re-submits a 68 enough times to get a random bump, or is the first one to submit another 68 after the guidelines next get loosened), it'll probably knock a zero off that price.

    I suppose the threat of a hoard discovery puts the gold at risk, too, but "top pop" is always going to be a uniquely vulnerable position.
     
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  12. Johndoe2000$

    Johndoe2000$ Well-Known Member

    I think the nickel is the one that could show a potential profit much sooner than the gold piece, If or when a bidding war ensues for any finest known US coin.
     
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  13. Silverlock

    Silverlock Supporter! Supporter

    Having gotten too close to this quite by accident in its formative years, I cannot stress to anyone seriously contemplating investing in modern coins the necessity of doing your homework. Learn the players, the processes, and most important of all, the connections between the players. I cannot stress that last point strongly enough. I don’t see how anyone can do the requisite research and still consider the MS70 game an “investment” by even the most casual definition of the word.
     
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  14. bsowa1029

    bsowa1029 Franklin Half Addict

    Gradeflation will take its toll on that Jefferson.
    10-15 years from now there will be several of that date/mm graded 69 or 69+ and probably a dozen or so at 68+.
     
  15. Yorkshire

    Yorkshire Well-Known Member

    Id rather buy 20x £1k coins than 1x for 20k

    Also I wouldn't buy a coin just because of the grade either soon as another 68+ gets graded the value on that is going down
     
  16. Johndoe2000$

    Johndoe2000$ Well-Known Member

    You sure about that ? I sure wish I could tell the future as well as you seem to be able to. ;)
    Your post makes it seem that you suspect a change in grading standards. That can't possibly happen right ??? ;)
     
  17. bsowa1029

    bsowa1029 Franklin Half Addict

    Standards definitely will not loosen. They’ve been strict as heck since ‘86.
     
  18. Silverlock

    Silverlock Supporter! Supporter

    The sad part is you don’t need gradeflation. Think deBeers. It’s an unregulated market where all you need to profit is change (rimshot).
     
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  19. Johndoe2000$

    Johndoe2000$ Well-Known Member

    LOL.
     
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  20. Sallent

    Sallent Live long and prosper Supporter

    tenor-1.gif
     
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  21. ToughCOINS

    ToughCOINS Dealer Member Moderator

    Ba Dump Bump
     
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