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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;ewomack, post: 2555235, member: 15588&quot;]Nothing has convinced me that humans, myself included, are capable of learning anything from history, but perhaps the wispy past could provide some clues in this case? I have read a number of theories and prognostications on the downfall of what many people once considered a noble, profitable and downright kingly pursuit: stamp collecting. The downfall of anything, even a hobby, remains difficult to analyze, but usually multiple factors contribute. Stamps seem to have crashed like a thousand mile diameter asteroid smashing into an ocean of pudding. I wasn&#039;t around at all for that hobby&#039;s heyday, but I&#039;ve heard at least the following theories about the downfall of those sticky-backs:</p><p><br /></p><p>-Collectors thought that stamps would appreciate in value, but when they no longer did, many people stampeded away from the hobby</p><p>-Too many stamps in general were being produced</p><p>-Too much &quot;planned obsolescence&quot; proliferated through thinly veiled &quot;limited edition&quot; sets and issues (C.T.O.s)</p><p>-Speculators began to dominate the market, they launched prices into the thermosphere and the inevitable bubble burst when these investors cashed out</p><p>-The price of buying stamps from the post office increased rapidly over time and priced many young people out of the hobby; the post office also apparently made it harder for collectors to obtain all varieties - plate blocks grew exponentially in number and became more and more prohibitively expensive</p><p>-Larger economic factors contributed, such as 1970s double-digit inflation</p><p>-Experienced collectors lost touch with younger collectors and possibly alienated many new collectors (i.e., the hobby became &quot;less kid-friendly&quot; or too &quot;expert oriented&quot;)</p><p>-Too much emphasis placed on making money and not enough on enjoyment or artistic value</p><p>-Only those who could afford the most expensive and rare stamps received any praise or awards for their efforts (i.e., &quot;only the rich need apply&quot;)</p><p>-In the 1980s, IRAs no longer allowed collectables in savings plans, causing a massive market dump of high quality material</p><p>-More prosaically, simple supply and demand conquered. Demand crashed.</p><p><br /></p><p>And all of this supposedly happened in the 1970s before Ebay and before the internet became a dominant market force. Many people claimed that Ebay caused collectable price increases rather than decreases and that the &quot;real bargains&quot; occurred before Ebay went online.</p><p><br /></p><p>Whether any of this can be applied to the coin hobby, I don&#039;t know. The past rarely dictates the future - which is a simpler and possibly clearer explanation as to why people can&#039;t learn from history. Coins do have the ultimate advantage over stamps, though, in that many contain bullion. So perhaps the analogy won&#039;t hold water. Perhaps.</p><p><br /></p><p>One thing that seems to factor in the collapse of anything is a strong belief in inevitability. This almost always leads to disappointment at some time. Examples: &quot;housing prices will <i>always</i> increase.&quot; &quot;Rare collectables will <i>always</i> appreciate in value.&quot; That word &quot;always&quot; or &quot;it never has&quot; and our stubborn belief in things that seem inevitable <i>always</i> seem to bite us. Hm. You can&#039;t <i>always</i> avoid &quot;always.&quot; What a bummer. Who made existence so complicated?[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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