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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;calcol, post: 2553104, member: 77639&quot;]The hobby will have its ups and down, but it won&#039;t go away.&nbsp; Older coins are durable, fairly readily identified and authenticated antiquities.&nbsp; For those whose interest is in older coins (pre-WWII), there is relatively little to worry about.&nbsp; Although occasional hoards may surface, the number of these antiquities is well fixed.&nbsp; World population and wealth are growing.&nbsp; The average age of folks in wealthier countries is increasing too.&nbsp; Older people have the time, money and interest for involvement with history and antiquities.&nbsp; Folks are not likely to desist in their desire to have bits of history, so over the long run, truly rare coins will increase in value.&nbsp; Rare coins may or may not keep pace with inflation, but the collector market will always be there.</p><p><br /></p><p>A lot of collectability hinges on perception of rarity and historical significance.&nbsp; Beauty and composition are also important.&nbsp; In numismatics, over a run of a few centuries, mainstream money (i.e. issued by governments for use in commerce) has generally been more collectible than privately issued, non-precious-metal coins or coins not intended for commerce (commemoratives, etc.).&nbsp; I think this is due to the historical significance issue.&nbsp; One can imagine historical figures or just plain folks (maybe an ancestor) owning and using mainstream coins.&nbsp; Not so with patterns or commemoratives. Compare most early 20th century commemorative prices with rare mainstream issues of the same era.&nbsp; Example: Arkansas or Oregon commems (most mintages 10K or less) vs early Walkers (mintages in the 100,000s or millions).&nbsp; As another example, mint state 1989-CC Morgans are valued more than many patterns created in the same decade even though the patterns are far rarer.</p><p><br /></p><p>In the last half century, coinage has changed worldwide.&nbsp; Mainstream coins have become non-precious metal with mintages routinely in the billions.&nbsp; Precious metal coins are in the realms of bullion and commemoratives, both produced to generate profits for governments rather than for commerce.&nbsp; Hard to say what the collectability of any of these will be in coming decades and centuries.&nbsp; There may be little interest for quite a while until some become truly rare through attrition.&nbsp; It&#039;s also hard to predict whether mainstream coins (base metal) will be more collectible than commemorative and bullion coins (precious metal).&nbsp; Coins minted in the last few decades will probably see little numismatic appreciation (separate from melt value) for many decades to come.&nbsp; There will be exceptions and bursting bubbles.</p><p><br /></p><p>Although there will be fluctuations, interest (= value) in older rare coins is likely to increase with time.&nbsp; Viva numismatica!</p><p><br /></p><p>Cal[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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