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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;jrs146, post: 2552907, member: 82094&quot;]As a kid I was big in to baseball cards. I watched that hobby ride the bubble all the way to the top and then saw nearly the entire hobby collapse very quickly. Although sports cards have regained some popularity over the years the collector value will never be what it was in the 90&#039;s. </p><p><br /></p><p>Although coin collecting shares some similarities they also have many differences. If anything will bring down coin collecting as a hobby it very well could be the same factors that brought down baseball cards. </p><p><br /></p><p>First the similarities:</p><p><br /></p><p>Grading - in my opinion this was the largest factor that impacted the baseball card market. Before grading everyone assumed a card fresh out of the pack was mint. After grading that same card may be worth 1/4 the value because it was not a true mint card. You could make a similar parallel in coins on this one for sure. </p><p><br /></p><p>Next is the price guides. Anyone who collected sports cards is familiar with Beckett. It was the Bible for all things sports cards. The funny thing about Beckett guides is that the prices only went up up up. This certainly helped drive the frenzy and push prices envelope further and eventually to a bubble. Of course everyone now wanted to know for sure that their card was worth that much and the grading services took off as a result. This does sound a lot like coins... one big difference is that the price guides for sports cards published very little information on production numbers. Coin guides seem to do a much better job. </p><p><br /></p><p>The third factor was the card companies. They took full advantage of the bubble and produced what seemed to be very rare cards. The problem was they made so many variations and there were so many companies that the there really wasn&#039;t much sacristy at all. Just too many companies producing too many cards. </p><p>Again, I see a similarities between the US mint and the money hungry sports card companies. </p><p><br /></p><p>The last nail in the coffin was the internet. Once any Joe could hop on eBay and see all the baseball cards for sale it was easy to see just how many examples of the same card were out there. Coupled by the fact that unless it was a 10 gem mint it has only a fraction of the value, the bubble burst. </p><p><br /></p><p>When the bubble burst, the hobby went with it. People were just too burned once they realized their collection was worthless. Many collectors started out thinking that if they started as a kid and their mother didn&#039;t throw out their cards that at Some point they would have the value of vintage cards. This could just never be the case due to production numbers and grading. People got bored once the reality set in. </p><p><br /></p><p>One thing to note though is even well after the bubble burst, the real rare vintage cards still maintained their value. They had true scarcity and a much stronger value. With coins this is even more true. </p><p><br /></p><p>So I could easily see this happening for modern day graded coins where the rarity factor is not the same as older coins. We may even be seeing that bubble build as we speak. But I think for those who stick to rare coins, there will be much less of a risk of the hobby dying. Values will be much more stable and that will keep the drive for people to collect strong enough to see it pass to the next generation. </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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