When is the best time to buy from the Mint?

It is a commonly believed myth.

As Chris said the dealers are in the same boat as we are, but they have a lot more money so they do the place multiple orders for the maximum number game. This pretty well guarantees that they will have a large number of items before the average collector does. Think of it this way,

Take 100 lincoln cents, 90 memorial and 10 wheat cents. These are going to represent the first 100 orders coming into the mint. The memorials represent the average collector ordering say 2 sets per order. The wheat cents are a dealer ordering at 50 sets per order. Put all 100 cents into a bag and start pulling them out one at a time (because the mint fills orders first in first out) Keep track and see how fast the number of sets the dealer gets out paces the number the collector gets.

If you are say order #80 you are going to see that the dealer has a whole lot of sets before you get yours.

Also the big dealers tend to have standing orders with smaller dealer to buy new items when they come out. So those collectors who are lucky enough to get theirs early do some flipping and the dealers they sell to then ship to the big dealers. Is it any wonder the new item tend to accumulate in the big dealers hands?

 

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Subscription orders are filled first regardless of whether you are a dealer or individual collector. It's the people who order online or by phone whose orders usually get filled last.

Chris

 

Big Dealers DO NOT get to return coins "in mass quantities".

They can get away with it maybe once and on occasion, possibly twice but eventually they'll get a phone call from the US Mint wanting some explanations since they DO NOT support cherry picking regardless of how much business is done with them. Each returned coin requires some type of inspection. Inspections require man power and man power costs money.

What dealers do do, is prescreen prior to submission and then sell the rest on the open market. Either to other dealers of individual customers.

The HOF coins are probably the worst example that a new person could even consider since, unlike most US Mint Offerings, the HOF coin release came in conjunction with a large Coin Show (Just like the UHR) and many thousands were sold, submitted, and resold before some online orders were even processed.

REAL TIME activity at this particular coin show simply boosted on line orders. A boost in online orders combined with inventory sell outs at a coin show is NEVER a good thing.

Typically, the first day of release for an offering does not coincide with a large coin show but when they do, then sellouts usually always happen.

The best time to order from the US Mint for popular items is on the day of release and at the time the market opens. You get what you get.

 

If a buyer offers an MS/PR68 graded coin on the open market, it will ALWAYS bring less money than that exact same coin in the original government packaging.

In other words, MS/PR70 is optimal and MS/PR69 is acceptable while MS/PR68 is not.

What YOU need to do, is pull your head out of this MS/PR70 hole and ask yourself what your goals are.

If it is ONLY MS/PR70 "graded" coins, then stick solely to MS/PR70 Graded coins and just forget about ordering from the mint as you'll experience nothing but disappointment. Especially if you're asking for other folks opinions.

You see, the MS/PR70 Grade is non-existent and merely the product of a marketing strategy similar to the First Strike™ and Early Release Programs.

There was a time when PCGS refused to grade any Silver Eagle as MS/PR70 because they are prone to spotting "after" they were encapsulated.

NGC started kicking PCGS's butt in the "income" area so PCGS relaxed their decision.
Had anything changed?

No.

PCGS just wanted their submissions back.

So what does this tell you about the MS/PR70 Grade?

 

Always excellent collecting advice; if you can't tell the difference, don't pay for the difference!

 

I don't entirely agree with this. With some products...they price has gone up and stayed there. A great example is the 25th Anniversary ASE set. I was able to get one directly from the mint and the price I paid is far lower than they can be bought today. I am very happy I bought the set from the mint.

 

That "market grading" is not a myth, and that TPGs, just like any business, will make decisions based on what they perceive as good for their business.

That being said, the grade has to theoretically exist, if the scale is 1 to 70 and not 1 to 69. Because if a coin can't ever truly be a 70, then that makes 69 the top grade. A coin can't truly be perfect, but "70" doesn't mean perfect (just very, very close).

THAT being said, I think the price differential between a 69 and a 70 is a bit ridiculous considering how common 69-70 is with modern mint products, to the point where something slabbed as 68 is considered less desirable than that coin in its original packaging. I just think, from a collecting perspective rather than an investing perspective, that I personally would rather spend that price difference on more coins than on the marginal, almost impossible to see, difference between a 69 and a 70.

I rarely buy modern mint products on the secondary market if I can help it, unless I just missed something I wanted the first time around.

So the smart time to buy something from the Mint, from a collecting perspective? As soon as you can! If it's a piece you really want and everyone else wants too, it's not going to get cheaper to wait. If it doesn't sell out at least you get it a lot faster.

From an investing perspective? To be honest, don't know, don't care. Read my signature lol.

 

I don't entirely agree with it either.
The fractional buffaloes are another prime example of which you speak. Also, I was able to flip the LP2's and LP4's in 2009. And how about those god awful but lucrative HOF coins? I could go on but I'd be here all day.

The mint has left most people with a very sour taste in their mouths; if I can avoid dealing with them, I most certainly will.

Their execution of getting products to the consumer is lousy at best. Their website is dated and is prone to crashing. Customer service at the mint is a disastrous game of he said she said, where I'm prone to get a different answer each time--to whatever my question may be. Need I add that the U.S. Mint is where halfway decent coin designs and ideas go to die as tacky shadows of their former selves?

Yeah, you'll hit a home run here or there, but you'll have to decide if the ulcers and grey hairs are worth it. I decided that it wasn't a long time ago, however, if things still work out on your end, then good for you.

 

As a general rule, I agree with you. They are a huge pain...they don't ship promptly and if you call them you can't get an answer. That is why I am very selective when I deal with them. When I see a product that I believe will be worth a premium for the long term (that I want)...I buy from them. Otherwise, I wait until it is on the secondary market and once the price drops I jump on it. The last product I bought from the mint was the 2011 ASE Set.

 

I love the design of a few of the commemoratives. The Smithsonian 1996 to me is beautiful, and of high strike quality. Same goes for the Eagle coins and the First Flight. Some of the more recent (after 2002 and onward) have left me cold. However, I don't see that the quality of the coin produced has dropped--a lot of foreign coins have more interesting designs and such limited mintages. More care is taken with a lot of the foreign contemporary coins.

 

I have a few subscriptions with the mint. I have not had one instance where I didn't like the coin sent from the mint. This includes spot purchases. Overall, I think they do a great job producing coins. They don't control the design of the coin, so it wouldn't be appropriate to comment on the recent lackluster commem designs. I do like the HOF coin. It's clever and clean. Next up for purchase will be the Kennedy anniversary coin/set.

 

OP, depends on the coin, mintage and demand.

I'd buy early if I was buying, why wait? I've had very good luck since 1999. The only complaint I can come up with is that the Mints shipping has struggled since moving from Memphis. Those folks were some coin shipping fools !!!