What's Better: Undergraded OGH/CAC or Higher-Graded Modern Holder ?

Discussion in 'US Coins Forum' started by GoldFinger1969, Feb 7, 2021.

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  1. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    What's Better: Undergraded OGH/CAC or Higher-Graded Modern Holder ?

    The answer really depends on WHY you're buying the coin !

    Since the origin of the TPGs the mantra has always been - buy the coin not the slab. But it seems not everybody understands what that means. What it means is - completely ignore and forget about whatever it says on the slab.

    At the same time that mantra is flat out telling you that YOU have to grade the coin. And that presupposes that you have the ability to do that ! Problem is not everybody does. And THAT'S why the vast majority of collectors DO buy the plastic and not the coin. Because they cannot grade the coin themselves. And that's what keeps the TPGs in business.

    But it, the WHY, is even more complicated than that. And the reason I say that is because there are numerous reasons for buying a coin. And it is those reasons that determine what you do and how you do it. For example, you could be buying the coin because you want it in your collection. Or you could be buying the coin because you wish to flip it, either as an individual or as a dealer. Or you might be buying the coin because you are playing the Registry game. Or you may simply be buying the coin because you wish to show it to everybody else and brag about it. Or you may be buying the coin purely because you like it - and no, that's not the same thing as wanting it in your collection. Or you could be buying the coin because you need it as hole filler in a set.

    Now all of these things are different reasons and each reason has different thinking that goes along with determining how much that coin is worth to you, or not worth to you. And one cannot forget that emotion plays a part, sometimes a large part, in determining value.

    So when you ask - what's better ? - there's a lot to consider and think about. And that explains why there's so many different answers to what seems to be at first glance a rather simple and straightforward question. A question that is not simple and straightforward at all.
     
    GDJMSP, Feb 8, 2021
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  3. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    But that's tough/impossible to do, GD.

    I mean....if I see a coin that I really like and then see that the actual grade is far lower, my first thought isn't that I should ignore it and I mentally graded it ("liked" it) correctly....instead, I figure I missed something.

    OTOH, if I am currently seeing 2 similar Saints.....each in an OGH.....each close in price....one is CAC the other is not (maybe it hasn't been submitted but maybe it was and failed). If the coins are practically identical and if I really see no major difference in price, why not get the CAC, right ?
    On some coin types, I can grade pretty good...but grading correctly requires years of experience and thousands of hours of grading thousands of coins....and my HOBBY hasn't allowed me that level of intensity.

    If I were rich and retired, maybe. :D

    But I'm not.:(
    Great points.
    If you saw 2 coins, looked identical, but they each came with the holders I listed above, would you have a preference or you wouldn't care ?

    Also...even if YOU wouldn't care....might you think the person you are going to sell it to in 6 months or 6 years or 20 years might care ?
     
    GoldFinger1969, Feb 8, 2021
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  4. yakpoo

    yakpoo Member

    Sometimes I make an effort to "Grade" a company's stock on my own, but most times I just trust the Morningstar "Slab"...(metaphor).
     
    yakpoo, Feb 8, 2021
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  5. ddddd

    ddddd Member

    Generally speaking I prefer the undergraded coin in an older slab.

    I have cracked a select handful of coins over the years to try my luck (none of those slabs had any premium though and the potential increase would have been worth it...would have been since plenty didn't make it :(...although a few still worked out as a break-even/slight gain since they got the same grade at PCGS as at NGC :)).
     
    ddddd, Feb 8, 2021
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  6. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Check out these 3 MS66 No Motto Saints. Ignore the labels at first, if you can. I have large closeups of 2 of the coins but not the 3rd.

    All MS66's.....all within 5% of one another in price.

    Warranted....or not ?

    1908 NM Saint MS66 CAC WF Hoard.jpg 1908 NM Saint MS66 CAC WF Hoard reverse.jpg
    1908 NM Saint MS66 WFH.jpg 1908 NM Saint MS66 WFH reverse.jpg 1908 NM Saint MS66 CAC WFH.jpg 1908 NM Saint MS66 CAC WFH reverse.jpg #1 MS66 large.jpg #1 MS66 large reverse.jpg #2 MS66 large.jpg #2 MS66 large reverse.jpg
     
    GoldFinger1969, Feb 8, 2021
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  7. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    No it isn't. It's actually quite simple. Almost everybody ignores the opinions of others when making a buying choice on just about everything and make their choice based on their own opinion. So if oyu can do it with everything else, why can't you do it with coins ?

    Well, I managed to do it even before the internet existed and I wasn't rich or retired. And I typically worked anywhere from 10-12 hrs a day, often 7 days a week. It's not that your hobby doesn't allow you to do it, it's that you make a choice not to do it.

    I would never care what the slab says regarding grade. The only time I would care would be when I could not authenticate a coin myself.

    Of course. As I said above the vast of collectors are plastic buyers. So if you are planning to sell, what the plastic says greatly influences your buying decision. That's merely part of the thinking that applies if selling is your reason for buying.

    And oddly enough, sometimes it's even wise to crack a coin out of a slab and offer to sell it raw. Why ? Because potential buyers like to gamble and will often over-grade a coin and this makes them think their potential profit lies in the coin getting a higher grade, one equal to their own opinion. And that makes them overpay for the coin.

    This is one of the huge problems with TPGs slabbing problem coins. Those whose scruples aren't as high as they should be will buy slabbed problem coins, crack them out and offer them raw because many potential buyers simply cannot identify a problem coin. Thus they will significantly overpay for that coin.

    Like I said, it's quite complicated and it all depends on what your reason for buying is.
     
    GDJMSP, Feb 9, 2021
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  8. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Because if the label and the professional both say that a coin is an MS65 and I think it's an MS63, I'm not going to be able to convince the dealer to sell it to me at MS63 prices. :D
    A choice and constraining elements. But again.....not EVERYBODY can be a great grader. Right now, I'd say I'm at the OK-level.

    People want to buy coins NOW and not years down the road when they graduate from OK-level to Good or Great-level. :D
    You're a very good grader, you'd probably be within +/-1 of any official grade.

    But many would not be.
    Or even buying....in the examples above, if I determine and/or others coroborate that the coins are very close to one another...it'd be kind of dumb to NOT pay the same $$$ for the CAC coins.
    Sure, same thing with an OGH or CAC when the coin is between inflection points.
    Yup, one reason aside from Saints I would never consider buying a raw coin. Too many things to know about other coins where I am NOT an expert that can go wrong.
    I enjoyed this back-and-forth. :D

    What are your impressions on the 3 MS66 Wells Fargo NM's I posted above ?     No rush, but would be interested in your thoughts.
     
    GoldFinger1969, Feb 9, 2021
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  9. ksparrow

    ksparrow Coin Hoarder Supporter

    I agree. Since the CAC sticker means JA thinks it nice for the assigned grade, there's no guarantee it will upgrade if resubmitted. Might be worth a shot if the next grade up has a big jump in value. As Yakpoo says, so many coins in OGH have already been cracked and regraded, you have to ask, what's left? There are a lot of coins out there in Old Green Coffins that have problems, and you have to study them really carefully to make sure you don't get burned. The CAC bean adds a substantial measure of safety, but of course is not infallible.
     
    ksparrow, Feb 9, 2021
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  10. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    KS, Yap....what do you guys think about the 3 MS-66 Wells Saints I have listed above ?

    2 of them with a CAC.....all within 5% of one another in price, give-or-take.
     
    GoldFinger1969, Feb 9, 2021
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  11. ddddd

    ddddd Member

    They all seem ok for the grade (as far as I can tell as someone that is not a gold collector). The non-CAC has the blurriest photo, so it is harder to judge. They all have minor distractions (some hits) but they don't look egregious for the grade.

    What do you think?
     
    ddddd, Feb 9, 2021
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  12. ddddd

    ddddd Member

    By the way, here is one of my better OGH slabbed coins (Gold CAC!)

    IMG_4183[1].JPG IMG_4184[1].JPG
     
    ddddd, Feb 9, 2021
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  13. yakpoo

    yakpoo Member

    Gorgeous Frankie! I love the older cameos.
     
    yakpoo, Feb 9, 2021
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  14. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    I agree with your thoughts....I do see more luster and a drop fewer bag marks on the 2 CACs....if I were a buyer between the 3 coins, it's a no-brainer IMO to pay the extra 5 and 10% higher prices the CACs command if only for future re-sale.
     
    GoldFinger1969, Feb 10, 2021
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  15. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Maybe not. But if a coin is in a 65 slab and I think it's a 63, and they won't see it to me for 63 money - I simply walk away from that coin.

    And that is largely why the majority of collectors are plastic buyers - not coin buyers ;)
     
    GDJMSP, Feb 10, 2021
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  16. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    None of them are MS.
     
    GDJMSP, Feb 10, 2021
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  17. charley

    charley Well-Known Member

    i don't grade a coin from photos. i can't. i have stated (to many times to count...including multiple times on this forum) very few can with any accuracy at all. is your judgement that these pieces are not ms (60+)? in your opinion based on the large oversized photos? are you using technical or market grading standards?

    if the opinion is being arrived at by using the oversized photos, i do not think any such opinion of not ms can be supported, vs. coin in hand evaluation with a 5x loop.
     
    charley, Feb 10, 2021
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  18. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    I know, but the TPG's won't give out a grade of AU-66. :D
     
    GoldFinger1969, Feb 10, 2021
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  19. Pickin and Grinin

    Pickin and Grinin Well-Known Member

    Market grading has been putting circulated coins in MS holders for over 20 years.
    If a coin has rub, wear on the high points, cabinet friction, even tube stacking, no matter the reason. It is circulated. So it is up to you to decide if you want to pay the premium or not. Not the grader or TPG making excuses as to why it should still get an UNC grade.
     
    Pickin and Grinin, Feb 10, 2021
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  20. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    You must be seeing wear on all 3 coins on the high points.

    Can you tell us where ?
     
    GoldFinger1969, Feb 10, 2021
    #39 + Quote Reply
  21. charley

    charley Well-Known Member

    i see. thank you. that is not the issue, to me.
     
    charley, Feb 10, 2021
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