What percentage of coins are over-graded?

A recent thread by @kaparthy posed the question of potential "hobby killers.

This provoked a response from me that kind of surprised me. I posted that I thought that most coins out there were over-graded. Maybe approaching 90% of them.

Then I realized that this is probably the "glass is half empty" part of me talking.

What do you all think? Am I grossly exaggerating the numbers here?

And to be clear, I'm talking about both TPGs *and* 2x2 flips, etc. If you think that the two categories deserve separate percentages/ratios (and I think that you might), then please clarify that in your post.

I eagerly await your responses as this will be an education for me. Thanks.

 

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I would say as far as slabbed I’d say at least 1/3 in my opinion maybe more with current gradeflation. As to raw as a dealer I look at a lot of coins and many have surface issues and have old cleanings etc. unbelievable how many coins at a glance look original but with a loupe they’ve been wiped and have hairlines under the toning

 

Slabbed, I'm with Mainebill, probably about a third. Raw, it's a minefield, around 80-90%.

 

Great thread...what would be more interesting would be to hear from our grading experts and/or past TPG graders as to the % overall AND the % over time depending on the Slab era.

According to Doug and other vets, the imposition of "market grading" started right around 2004. I was under the impresson that the standards loosened during the 1st Coin Bubble of 1989-90 but maybe even those "loose" standards were tight by today's standards, dunno.

Regardless....I do NOT think that overgraded coins are a hobby killer. What I think kills the hobby is counterfeits, where someone is out 80-95% of the value of what they paid. If you overpaid for an overgraded (slabbed) coin, it won't kill you or your collection.

But if you bought a phony rare Morgan or a 1924 Saint or even a fake 1 oz. gold bullion coin ? That hurts.

 

I am 100% positive that all over-graded coins are over-graded. ~ Chris

 

50%.

The other 50% are undergraded, so it balances out.

 

That's a HUGE discrepancy, I'm sure you believe it though I tend to think you might be exaggerating for effect.

But then again, I know how you feel about grading standards pre- and post-2004.

Also, if the undergrading or overgrading is by 1 grade or less, that's perhaps understandable. We have people here who are all over the map when we have GTG threads, right ?

Being off on a grade by alot and/or missing counterfeits and/or cleaned or altered coins is a bigger issue for me. Sure I want the grades to be accurate. But if I overpay for 1 grade that's not as bad as buying a gold coin and then finding out 15 years later it's tin.

 

Raw coins in dealers cases are quite often overgraded and have numerous problems. You really have to be on your game with those.

However, I think that the percentage of overgraded coins in TPG slabs is being wildly overstated. If you're still grading using standards from the 1950's, then perhaps - but that's not where we are. And you also have to realize, if you sold off your entire collection 15 years ago and stopped collecting coins, grading has continued to evolve. Grading by today's standards, I'd put the overgraded pieces at no more than 10%.

Now, there are plenty of accurately graded coins that I wouldn't buy because I don't like them - but that doesn't mean they aren't graded properly.

 

If you consider human psychology, individuals grading their own coins or perhaps coins to be sold will tend to be generous. In a study, a group of folks were asked where they felt they ranked compared to the others. When asked by the researchers if they thought they were in the 'top 50%', 90% of the group said yes. When asked if they were in the 'top 10%', 80% of the group said yes. Bias, hidden or not, will affect relative rankings. I would suspect that there are fewer, but somewhat different, biases affecting TPGs. I suppose a group like CAC would tend to keep grading dispersion somewhat tighter, but not altogether absent.

 

If you think that 90% are overgraded then you just have different standards which is fine but not adjusting to the standards the TPGs actually use in practice would make this hobby a little frustrating for me. I don't study how coins were graded 20+ years ago I focus on how they're grading today and to me it's very consistent and they do an impossible job incredibly well.

 

None based on my recent submissions, however some will upgrade.

I don’t worry about it. Would be absurdity of exercise in futility. In pricing go by the grade on the holder - A,B,C markup range. PQ A coins marked up (over cost / bid) highest.

Some coins may send in in hope of upgrade marking minimum grade on form but this expensive exercise.

It is what it is all one can do is try come out on top. There are many on bourse fishing pickoff upgrades or coins which willCAC they can markup much higher (higher CAC bid in sheet).

 

It depends on what standards we are using. If we use the “evolving” standards and combine them with market grading, almost no coins are overgraded (or undergraded) by the TPGs.

If I had to base it off my standards, I’d say roughly 1/4 to 1/3 are overgraded (higher percentage for nicely toned coins vs untoned).

 

(Insert Doug saying, "if the standards evolve, then there's no standard at all, ya see !")

 

Ha! I laughed at that.

 

What do PCGS and NGC officials say when confronted about loosening standards ? Do they admit it or say that thet grade the same was today as in 1989 ?

What about the actual veteran graders from the 1980's and 1990's who worked for the TPGs -- I've never see any mea culpa articles or things like that (maybe there have been and I just never saw them).

You would think someone would have talked by now, right ?

 

Between 0 and 100%

Am I selling based on the grade on the slab or 2x2? None of them are over-graded.

Am I buying based on the alleged grade on the slab or 2x2? All of them are over-graded.

 

Interesting discussion - so what about the grading method. Do they use the same scopes/loupes/equipment since the start? Are they using a modern method? Are they the same (i.e., do they correlate well)? Would an MS63 coin graded 30 years ago get an MS63 grade today? Consistency means a lot, of course, but as 'state-of-the-art' equipment is introduced, it's hard to imagine that it doesn't have some impact on the outcomes.

 

I have been following this thread with interest especially because it is a perennial topic that exposes the ever-lasting differences of opinion-always fun. First my guess as to the percentage of over-graded slabs asked in the thread title: 80%. Anyway, here's a PCGS-slabbed MS-63 1869 IHC that I bought for its interesting clash and die crack and also an upgrade from the AG coin in my set.

There is no question in my mind that this coin is at best an AU-58 and more likely a 55. I have found that in the IHC and many other series, the key and semi-key coins are typically graded much more leniently than other coins in the series. I believe that is true even taking into account strike differences between different years' issues. I have seen 1877 IHCs in AU-58 slabs that I didn't consider to be better than VF-35. This is market grading-a more desirable or harder-to-get coin is worth more and its worth even more if we grade it higher than it really is, because, you know, the collector has to have it.

I see it also particularly egregiously in early copper where circulated coins are routinely installed in MS slabs. And I am not just coming from the POV of the more conservative EAC grading. A comparison to the latest ANA Grading Guide (which readily admits in writing that it has made adjustments to the "evolution" in grading standards) is illuminating.

Anyway, that's the way of the world these days and if I want to play, I have to play by these rules. I have just inured myself to buying higher grades for the quality I'm seeking rather than railing against the injustice of it all.

Of course, we could all emulate Lysistrata and just withhold our business until the hobby collapsed or the greed was overcome (Ha! Ha!). Some folks have done that by moving to ancients and world coins.