What is going on with the Roman bronzes?

I've often said that I wish I had a time machine, not to necessarily go back all the way to antiquity, but to even just go back to the 1960s and 70s when coins were more available and less expensive. I'm quite envious of collectors that have assembled their collections then and have kept them: he is most certainly going to realize some incredible profits when he sells if he bought good quality coins.

It's encouraging to see that he's still involved in the hobby after this long, and, of course, admission to this forum is free of charge and welcome to anyone, especially those with great coins

 

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OMG the toning on that piecce is STUNNING! That's one of the nicest coins I've ever seen. I'd probably pay that if I had an extra 11k GBP to just throw at it. Then again, I've probably spent over that in the last few months if you count US stuff, as well. I should really be saving up money ;3

And yeah, the market is fickle. I think everyone has said what I would, plus much, much more. Some very interesting comments. I generlly stick to silver and electrum (the latter only if the numismatic value tumps the bullion, by far) but in all honesty I don't think things have chnged quite that much in a while.

 

When looking at the images of this sale, one might be tempted to start a new thread but this might be unfair to both the auction house and the "good" coins in this sale. Nevertheless, one must have positive commitment to the younger fellow collectors and use this thread, where we discuss about the possible route course of the bronzes' price decline, to express some sense of warning. Besides a large number of heavily tooled bronzes, one can definitely detect counterfeit coins. It might not be a wonder that in the future, the prices not only of the bronzes will tumble if the auction catalogs are created in such a grossly negligent manner.

 

Which of the bronzes on that page do you consider counterfeit? The Caligula sestertius (Lot 628) appears to have casting bubbles, but other than that, I don't know the types well enough to say that the style or fabric of any one of them indicates a forgery. Are any of them a die match to known forgeries?

ALL of the bronzes in that auction look slightly tooled and smoothed, but none of it seems egregious. I suppose it's a matter of taste, but as long as I don't see deep ruts around the devices and legends, and overly-sharp edges, I consider a small amount of tooling and smoothing to be within the acceptable limits of conservation.

 

Dear John,

most of the counterfeits in this sale can be found among the aurei whereas the percentage of fakes among the bronzes is admittedly low. Besides the Galba, Hispania, I do not trust the Caracalla Circus Maximus. Further, I am very curious to know whether or not the Nero, Ostia is counterfeit since a few years ago, a coin of identical die was vended at CNG.

Besides the forgeries, one must mention that a an unacceptable large number of the bronzes is heavily tooled, which I regard as falsified. The reverse of the Caligula, hexastyle temple sestertius is tooled to such an extent that one might consider it to be forged.

Nevertheless, there are some coins that are definitely "good". For sake of fairness, I want to emphasize this and will list here the pictures of five of them. I do not want to leave the impression that one cannot purchase nice coins in such a sale.

 

OK, Marc. Well, when I win the lottery and start playing in your league, I'll be sure to get your advice first!

 

I'm not so sure. It depends on just how we distort statistics. After all, you can prove anything with statistics properly misused. I have a very few coins that I bought in the sixties but they are hardly what you would call high quality. What I bought for $13.50 in 1963 would bring $135 today but that same year a house in high quality parts of town cost 1/10 as much as today and 90% silver dollars were available at the bank for $1. Figuring profits is complicated.

Along the way, there have been a few bumps in the road where coin prices took a hit along with the fortunes of the likes of Bruce McNall and the Hunts but all that just requires that you did not jump off the roller coaster when it was moving.

I'm also not so sure that coins were easier to get back then. A great number of the slabbed pieces of perfection we see today were still underground in the 60's before we had metal detectors and normalized relations with several nations of Eastern Europe. If I had one wish in coins it would not be for a proof EID MAR but for the ability to look at any coin and tell its provenance back to when it emerged from the ground. I'm not in this for the money but would love to know what happened to the coins that I sold for $500 in 1974. I'd pay $10,000 today to get them back but I'm just a sentimental old fool. They were just F-VF then but some may have been improved - who knows?

In the old days we only had a chance of provenance on 'super' coins since nothing else was photographed and many were sold as group lots. Can you convince yourself that you would have made more on that EID MAR bought in 'the day' than on a few square feet of high quality real estate that same year? I have had more fun out of my coins but they are not high grade so they are worth only about as much more as my money is worth less.

When I was a boy, Cokes were a nickel but I didn't have a nickel so I didn't have a Coke. Today, many places give me a free Senior drink so I don't even have to use my nickel to get a Coke. These are the good old days!

 

Very well put, Doug.

 

I am also quite suspicious of the ACR Ostia sestertius and the others as you've pointed out. The selection of Greek coins is also fraught with coins that are either obviously fake or highly questionable, which is a bit frustrating. I was initially extremely excited about the sale when browsing it on my phone's small screen... now my expectations are much more tepid. There are some nice coins which appear genuine but I'll definitely be getting an in-hand expert opinion before committing to them.

 

Time to add a little humor to this thread:

C'mon Doug, seriously? You would turn down an EID MAR denarius worth $1M+ for provenance information?

Hey Ancient Joe, try offering Doug your EID MAR denarius or a crystal ball with provenance info on any ancient coin and let's see which he prefers...

Luckily, this choice is theoretical only.

Ancient proverb: "The spirit is willing but the flesh is weak."

 

Figuring profits is indeed complicated, and the cost of living/inflation are often not straightforward calculations. I would argue that it would be unfair to cherrypick profit calculations (comparing real-estate or equities to coins) - yes, some markets have done quite well historically but it's also very possible to do very badly in them, just as happens with particular coins.

I haven't attempted to do any broad-spectrum price analysis, nor do I think it would be worth the effort, but anecdotally, quality coins from sales 40+ years ago have increased substantially in price, far above inflation or cost of living increases. Perhaps putting money elsewhere would have done better, but I enjoy coins far more than looking at a plot of grass.

As a reference (again, cherrypicking statistics), the Eric P. Newman collection of US coins started to be formed in the 1930s, consisting of 1800 coins which originally cost $7,500 but sold last year for $23M. There may have been some investments that could compare but one would have to be extremely skilled and extremely lucky.

Personally, I consider my enjoyment of coins worth at the very least the cost of inflation. Any profit is always welcome but the pride of ownership is worth the price of entry for me.

That may be true overall, but there are many older catalogs which eclipse almost anything sold recently in my opinion. I could fulfill my entire wantlist many times over with single sales from decades ago. There have definitely been a large number of coins unearthed in the recent past but there were certainly some truly fantastic coins available in many of the auctions from 1900 onward.

 

Thanks It also was on display in a museum for 12 years which I find quite appealing, but that was not mentioned in the sale. (If you're interested in more detail, see my post here)

 

Seriously! Were I able to trace every coin back to the ground, I would be able to spot those which started life in a forger's shop, those that made a side trip to a tool shop and answer some of the pressing questions of our hobby with absolute certainty. I would be able to prove one way or the other whether the gold EID MAR are or are not ancient. Silbannicus would be or not be; there would be no question. The cash value of that information would only be exceeded by its danger since there would be people who would benefit greatly from my termination. Assuming that were not a factor (this is, after all, theoretical) I would be able to sell individual 'readings' for at least, lets say, 2% of a coin's value which would add up to more than the price of an EID MAR just certifying EID MAR coins. Today we have people who will not buy a coin without a certificate (or slab). How many would pay to know? How many would pay to have that information withheld? I suspect I would turn out to be a Numismatic Cassandra, always right but never believed until someone decided that I was definitely more trouble than I was worth.

In truth, I would find that power much more appealing than one coin of a type that some people even doubt in silver (I do not go that far but they do exist). A coin worth $1M would not change my life. For that matter neither would that amount of cash. Times have changed since John Beresford Tipton made the number seem high but inflation made it too little to count on for what many consider a comfortable retirement. If I did get an EID MAR (found on street or as a cereal box premium?) I would sell it and convert it into something I would rather have. It is not enough (by far) to buy a serious coin dealership, not even the better ones of the type that sells coins to me. My collection has a lot less cash value than a proof EID MAR but I could not bear to trade straight up. I might consider trading half of my coins for half of the EID MAR. You cut it and I'll pick my half.

 

That's brilliant, Doug. LOL!

 

Dear Joe,

I do not want to interrupt the ongoing and very interesting discussion, so please, apologize this brief comment.

Marc Aurel - was in the stock of a reputable Italian coin dealer
Hadrian - NAC, auction 52
Commodus medallion - Leo Benz
Commodus sestertius - Gemini
Carinus - I saw exactly the same item in uncleaned condition

Now, the breathtaking news of the morning: The reputable Italian coin dealer sent me an Email where he mentioned that he thinks that the Ostia sestertius, which is of the same die as this item, is genuine! If it is, it is definitely good, i.e. without any repairs. I will do researches to find further examples.

Greetings,

Marc

P.S.: I strongly assume that that also the Pertinax is good.

 

Hindsight can be 20/20. Years ago rarity was relatively more important than it is today, in which the main focus is on condition. So, if many years ago, you collected what was enviable then you would have wanted and collected more moderate grade rarities which have not gone up as much as top grade stuff, even if common.

US coins can *prove* that top grade stuff was not so important back then. There was a time when MS66 and 68 did not even exist because 60, 63, and 65 were deemed sufficient descriptions. Had, long ago, you known to focus on near perfection, you would have done well (if you could have found the coins, which was not easy). But is not fair to look back and say "This type of coin which is popular today has gone up a lot," and deduce that one could have known then what would be popular today.

Do you know how so many investment firms can claim their mutual funds beat the Lipper ten-year averages for funds in their class? It's easy. Dissolve the ones that don't do well before they get to ten years! The ones that still exist to put in the average are the ones that did well. However, if you looked at all the funds available ten years ago (many of which folded for poor performance), the story would be quite different.

If I had to predict the future of coin price rises, I would guess that with the continuing concentration of wealth (which shows no signs of slowing down) the very top coins will experience intense competition and go up the most. The very good and moderate coins exist in vast numbers and will be desired by many, but I don't see the corresponding increase in money/wealth in the collecting population required to push up their prices much beyond inflation.

The low-value coins are so common that dealers can by them for very little and price them for their bother in selling them, not for their raw value. They will not go up at all.

I hope you are not collecting because you think your coins will go up in value. Most who think that will be disappointed. Enjoy the hobby which pays dividends all along.

How can you make a small fortune investing in coins? Start with a large fortune.

 

I, too, would prize this superpower you describe more than an EID MAR. Never mind that the superhero movie that might get spun out of a character with this fantastic ability would be an utter box office failure...

 

Prices for better Augustus denarii are nowadays skyrocketing whereas nice bronzes seem to - cautiously speaking - scarcely make any headway even though they are not only considerably larger, but also more difficult to find in a good shape.

For instance, this very nice Augustus dupondius fetched yesterday only 1'050 EUR, which is of course a respectable amount of money but still far from what you have to pay for a splendid Augustus denarius. If this bronze could be suspected of having been tampered, I would have some understanding but this item is visibly a honest bronze. This becomes very clear when looking at another picture of the identical coin released in the catalog of a previous sale where futile attempts were made to sell it.

 

I would probably watch it as many times as I watched Star Wars when I was a kid.

 

A very recent communication from my dealer on this Nero Port of Ostia sestertius is indicating that a number of dealers are not certain that the coin is genuine.

In addition, my dealer believes that the amount of work on the obverse is excessive and borders on tooling.