Your ideas PLEASE What is creating the interest in the British Coin market? What has really happened over the last decade? We need to understand a few facts and then mix all the facts up to give an individual potted view of the future. Numismatic is ART in a miniature form. Bargains, I have seldom seen any bargains. If you are offered a coin that is substantially below what is considered market price, check it carefully as there is likely to be something wrong with the coin. Numismatic rarities have one main disadvantage in that they are not as liquid as say bullion coins. The internet has changed this to some extent as the audience is much larger than before. The question that is never fully answered is what makes a fair price? Willing buyer, willing seller, the problem is that collectors of British coins fall in love with every piece and are loathed to part. James I Ship Ryal (15/-) the king showing his naval power Quality pieces have always been sought after they can be preserved carefully through many generations of collectors, since auction catalogues are known from the early 1700’s and collections were assembled well before. The relationship of quality to non-quality is not more than 1:200, or possibly even less. The importance of grading is paramount, beware of “loose” grading. Hold the coin and check the quality of the patina and eye appeal. Plastic captivity is only one possible solution but cannot replace the expertise of a long term collector or dealer with knowledge who wishes to see the whole coin, edges and metal. Coins have the added interest, coins are money and people ‘love money’, they are portable and wonderful collections can be built from Ancient Greek to Modern British Coins. Buy books, read learn your subject; this has always been a strong criteria for success. Knowledge of price/grade is essential for the collector with “Coins of England” the British Bible on pricing carefully reflecting the prices paid at auction of grade to price. Blip you say? Yes, as one day there needs to be a correction. Then your collectables will be worth less – sure, but they will have some intrinsic value and anyhow you have had fun collecting. Geoffrey C
I haven't thought about this but as I read your thread I'm thinking. I have seen a sudden flood if you will of British coins mostly on online auctions. Yes like ebay. I personally don't share your enthusiasm with them, although I love history. British exchange is packed with a wonderful & less of, history. But so does most of Europe, the middle east the areas that make up the biggest part of our known history. I have only one British type coin & even that I can't really say it's British because it's a colonial coin that had George III on it a 1700's. Even that was a recent purchase I made sole on chance & the history behind it. I can't really give an opinion on if I think the British coin market will expand or not. Geographically I seem to be in a region were nobody collects coins or paper money. I'm not from here but live here now. For a while I was beginning to think maybe I was a freak because I like old coins. But thanks to CT I've met a few like me in the region. No I don't think the British will take over the market. Other countries are coming out with some really fine coins. The Congo, Armania, China, japan, even Mexico.
I don't know much about the market. Maybe what you say has to do with higher value coins, older ones in top condition. I like 1900s coins. I think the market today shows that prices will remain strong for quality coins, mainly scarcer types. I don't see a market for top pop, modern coins like the one in the US. But I see that problem free crowns of the late 1800s and early 1900s are hard to come by, higher circ and unc grades even scarcer. I think British coins will remain in the top 10-15 countries that world collectors opt for.
The answer to your 1st question can be summed up in one word SwK - popularity. And I think the answer to your 2nd question has been answered by what has happened in the world coin portion of the market over the past 15-20 years. You've been around long enough to have seen all this happen, but given your specialized interest I don't know if you were too close to it to have actually noticed. Maybe you did, maybe you didn't, as I said I don't know. But given your questions, I'm inclined to think you didn't. Around 2000, and maybe even a bit before that, the only world coins in which there was any real interest were British coins. The coins of other European countries and those of Asia languished in the doldrums with few collectors showing any interest in them, while British coins were in high demand and bringing high prices. This interest was reflected in the coin forums of the time as well. But by 2003 interest in the coins of other European countries began to increase. Prices for them began to rise as more and more collectors began to seek them out. And with this increase of interest in the coins of other countries the interest in British coins began to wane a bit, prices began to drop somewhat, and as the years went on the coins of one country or another became, for lack of another description, "the current favorite". The coins of various countries seemed to get their own little "piece of the action" as it were, only to lag behind as time went on and focus shifted to another. Fast forward to a couple of years ago and the market for world coins overall has become a monster compared to what it was 15 years ago. Prices have exploded, reached heights they never dreamed of, seeing record after record achieved. And all because of one thing - popularity. And that brings us to what the future may hold. Now nobody ever "knows" what the future will hold, they can only speculate. But ask yourself one simple question - what eventually happens to all markets ? And that speculation seems to be fairly obvious. For example the US coin market blew up in 2008 and prices fell off a cliff. But no such thing happened to the world coin portion of the market. On the contrary, prices just kept right on climbing. The whys and wherefores of this are debatable, but the fact that it happened is not. Very recently, there has been some softness in the world coin market. And coins that have not been seen in many years are seemingly crawling out of the woodwork, coming to market. It's almost as if everybody knows what the writing on the wall says and they do not want to miss their opportunity.
Typically, what causes a surge in interest in a particular segment of numismatics is a Well Managed Promotion™. I have no idea if one is happening with British coins, which probably means there isn't one. So the best answer to your question regarding interest in British coins I can provide will be a personal one. As a US collector, there is a natural transition from acquiring 18th century colonial issues to buying 18th century and earlier British coins. A quick peek at a price guide shows just how inviting these are, even in higher grades, and the designs are pretty cool. This is what got me buying a couple, so perhaps this US collector spillover phenomenon is legitimate. Figuring out pricing is a bit of a challenge, coming from dealing with more commoditized US issues like Morgan Dollars and Classic Commemoratives. I got my hands on the Spink CoE book, searched auction results, and trusted my gut. The emphasis on quality is very important, and I fully agree that for every 200 coins you look at, there will be one you really want. A year or so ago, a photogenic colorful Elizabeth I sixpence came up in a Heritage auction. I tried to find comparable pricing, but couldn't find much to compare it with, which told me that it was of atypically high quality, so I trusted the auction was fair and bought it. Whoever buys it from me when I go to sell will be faced with the same situation. Being photogenic, as I mentioned the sixpence being above, is also important. Almost everyone's first impression of your coin(s) will be from internet photos. If the coin doesn't permit you to get an accurate picture that's also attractive and flattering, that first impression won't be a good one. Anyway, where's this all going in the future? Two possibilities: (1) the market will get stronger, or (2) the market will not get stronger.
It is apparent that British coins are preferred by US collectors compared to the vast majority of other non-US coins which is why the prices are higher given equivalent quality and scarcity. It's easy enough for "big budget" US collectors to afford them since they are so much cheaper than US coins. I know TPG has little following elsewhere, there are many high grade and expensive British coins in TPG holders sold in the US and I don't see these TPG coins being sold in British auctions except in limited numbers. From this, I conclude that a substantial percentage (as in maybe as high as 50%) of the more expensive British TPG coins are bought by Americans. As to the future, I expect US collectors to continue to prefer them though it will likely decrease somewhat as the demographic composition here changes. I also expect most Americans and Brits to become poorer or a lot poorer over the indefinite future and I consider it likely that this could negatively impact prices or reduce future appreciation versus what it would be otherwise.
