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What exactly "wakes up" a sleeper coin?
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<p>[QUOTE="cladking, post: 1674180, member: 68"]Yes. It is typically demand that wakes up a sleeper whether the demand is from collectors or speculators. But this demand can build up for quite a long while until it is suddenly reflected in the price guides. Insiders know before the change that they have to pay premiums to the guide to get the coins from other insiders and after the increase insiders are trading them at a discount so the change is much smoother than it appears on paper. Some of this in is intentional on the parts of insiders and publishers to control and profit from the market but in most cases it's just the nature of the beast. We don't so much notice little changes until they've built up to a big change and because the publishers aren't always on the ball. </p><p><br /></p><p>Many of the modern prices are all wrong in the guides and foreign moderns might seem to be exploding exponentially year to year but in reality a few people know what some of these are worth and are collecting or trading them at prices dissimilar to catalog. 1954 Proof Sets from India haven't really increased 100 fold in the last few years because they were being sought before any changes in price occurred and now they also are trading in the collector community. They simply weren't trading hands at $15 a few years back. I have extreme doubt you could find a single Chinese aluminum coin from the mid-'50's at catalog anywhere in the world today. When they (probably) list far higher at some point in the future it won't really mean that they suddenly woke up so much as there is finally enough demand to actually entice a seller to part with an example. </p><p><br /></p><p>Sleeper coins simply don't trade now and when the guide is finally updated they trade again. Insiders know what to pay but the mass market is dependent on the guides. This is why it's so frustrating that Krause is so woefully out of date on many modern issues. This also fosters conditions where the coins flow out of the US back to the country of issue at greatly reduced prices.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="cladking, post: 1674180, member: 68"]Yes. It is typically demand that wakes up a sleeper whether the demand is from collectors or speculators. But this demand can build up for quite a long while until it is suddenly reflected in the price guides. Insiders know before the change that they have to pay premiums to the guide to get the coins from other insiders and after the increase insiders are trading them at a discount so the change is much smoother than it appears on paper. Some of this in is intentional on the parts of insiders and publishers to control and profit from the market but in most cases it's just the nature of the beast. We don't so much notice little changes until they've built up to a big change and because the publishers aren't always on the ball. Many of the modern prices are all wrong in the guides and foreign moderns might seem to be exploding exponentially year to year but in reality a few people know what some of these are worth and are collecting or trading them at prices dissimilar to catalog. 1954 Proof Sets from India haven't really increased 100 fold in the last few years because they were being sought before any changes in price occurred and now they also are trading in the collector community. They simply weren't trading hands at $15 a few years back. I have extreme doubt you could find a single Chinese aluminum coin from the mid-'50's at catalog anywhere in the world today. When they (probably) list far higher at some point in the future it won't really mean that they suddenly woke up so much as there is finally enough demand to actually entice a seller to part with an example. Sleeper coins simply don't trade now and when the guide is finally updated they trade again. Insiders know what to pay but the mass market is dependent on the guides. This is why it's so frustrating that Krause is so woefully out of date on many modern issues. This also fosters conditions where the coins flow out of the US back to the country of issue at greatly reduced prices.[/QUOTE]
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