wall st update 9/14 post ecb, boe, fed and nfp a look back on the past few weeks

Last week Silver cleared 34.00 by
> just a hair and as of current writing we sit at 34.50ish.
>
> Gold closed 1740ish, and is now 1770ish
>
> Much was made of yesterdays fed actions at the MBS buying
> will hopefully stimulate the housing market so people can
> start using there homes as ATM's again.
>
> Land is one of the "hardest assets" on earth, been around
> since the beginning of time, yet has been greatly
> overlooked. My wife is a Realtor, for those of you who
> did not know. She had here BEST MONTH EVER, in August
> of 2012.
>
> Back to metals. There were numerous take downs of the
> metals during the week, but they scratched and clawed there
> way back to positive territory yesterday.
>
> Option vols hit a low in mid AUG with near dated Silver
> breaching 20% and Gold briefly breaching 10%. Short
> dated Gold eclipsed 20% yesteday, and the call skew move was
> parabolic in both metals. I always find this strange,
> as it is clear from the price action that traders, algos,
> and investors are long as we are at 5 month highs.
>
> My calculation suggest that between the "Spain Bad Bank," UK
> QE, ECB open ended bond purchase, and the MBS purchases to
> come out of the States. There should be another 2-2.5
> TRILLION US dollar equivalents htting the markets in the
> forseeable future. My thoughts are that Europe is from
> from over, the States still have this 16 TRILLION dollars
> debt issue, the UK continues QE, as well as Japan, which I
> have not even mentioned.
>
> Silver must close above 34.13 on the SI pit close, and GC
> above 1743. These gains this week in the metals are
> pitiful to say the least. Gold is up a mere 2%, and
> Silver only about 1%.
>
> Despite way more money being printed in the EU and UK, the
> Euro and Pound, (I refuse to call it the Pound Sterling, as
> it has not been backed my Sterling since 1946,) have gained
> in excess of 3% this week.
>
> Due to this, European Gold is well off its high, about 20
> euros, and will most likely close down on the week.
>
> Much as I believe in a long term uptrend in Gold and Silver,
> Europeans were the leaders in the Gold buying
> recently. To make an all time high and close down on
> the week, does not bode well. I can not predict the
> future, but Euro Gold having a key reversal, and the
> parabloic rise in call skew may have spelled the range top
> for the metals. Earlier this year Gold got up into the
> 1790's and well at 1360's in Euros, it then got a major
> haircut. Silver has outpaced Gold on the recent run,
> as the SI:GC ratio has narrowed from 58:1 to 51:1.
> Platinum has also had an incredible run. It will
> depend on the Europena close 11:00am CST and the US close
> 12:25-12:30. But I exited long positions late
> yesterday, and will be looking for another dip and vol
> compression to re enter a structured call strategy.
>
> Gold has had two 50.00 plus range days in the past week, and
> Silver two 6% range days as well. As us option guys
> know tops an bottoms are usually marked by three things,
> trend reversals, excessive volatility, and parabolic moves
> in the call or put skew.
>
> All three of these happened this week. I have and
> think taking profits in the yellow and white metals are a
> worthy choice at this point. The risk reward in the
> long side is no longer there. Volatility is no longer
> "cheap." If I had to take an educated guess the powere
> that be will try to take the metals down today, or on Sunday
> nite's Globex open.
>
> If one needs to be long, i would suggest fencing off the
> risk, as you can sell calls for a decent premium relative to
> puts.
>