Value of the unknown?

Discussion in 'US Coins Forum' started by Marshall, Jan 2, 2018.

  1. Marshall

    Marshall Junior Member

    I'm looking at a coin which is either a distinctly new variety on both obverse and reverse or a fake.

    How much would you gamble on such a coin knowing that either a fake or alteration is far more likely than a new variety?
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  3. CamaroDMD

    CamaroDMD [Insert Clever Title]

    I probably wouldn't gamble at all. The truth is...if it seems to good to be true it probably is. I would do my homework and ask around before I paid anything for it.
  4. CoinCorgi

    CoinCorgi Derp, derp, derp!

  5. BostonCoins

    BostonCoins Well-Known Member

    I suppose it really depends on what kind of coin it is in the first place. I mean, each coin type typically comes with a normal "range" of expected prices depending on grade or rarity.

    But with that said... I'd bid:
    Kentucky and Marshall like this.
  6. Marshall

    Marshall Junior Member

    My expectation is that it is a Chinese counterfeit which has been artificially weathered and beaten up to look old. But it has many elements which are correct individually, but not collectively.

    I have no idea how to prove it to be authentic anyway without any history for either die, even on the off chance it were authentic.
  7. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    How much I’d gamble all depends on my expectations. If I think it’s fake or expect it to be I’d pass or just a little but would be more aggressive if I thought it was real
  8. Kentucky

    Kentucky Supporter! Supporter

    Send it for grading.
  9. TypeCoin971793

    TypeCoin971793 Just a random guy on the internet

    I would initially post pictures of the coin to get opinions from others since all you would be getting is blind advice. But since it seems you are bidding on a live eBay auction, that is not an option. Check the return policy and bid it up if you can return it if fake/altered.
  10. TypeCoin971793

    TypeCoin971793 Just a random guy on the internet

    That won't work. Folks in the EAC community know that the TPGs can slab a good fake without confirming the die variety. That won't satisfactory in determining the validity of a new variety. What is needed is long study by EAC experts to validate the discovery.
  11. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    Morelike it won’t work because the TPGs won’t do the research to do a new variety without substantial documentation/research and letters accompanying the piece
    TypeCoin971793 likes this.
  12. TypeCoin971793

    TypeCoin971793 Just a random guy on the internet

    There's always the option that you can pick a couple members here who you can trust to not bid against you and show them pictures to get other opinions. I'd be willing to do that for you.
  13. TypeCoin971793

    TypeCoin971793 Just a random guy on the internet

    That too
  14. Marshall

    Marshall Junior Member

    I trust my own abilities far more than third party graders. They get it wrong far too often to trust them for authentication.

    Perhaps they are "OK" with grading and preservation, but that's as far as I go trusting them.
  15. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    No they don’t get it wrong far to often for authentication.
  16. Marshall

    Marshall Junior Member

    If you trust them, then it's your risk. I trusted them before I gained some expertise in a specific area and found them incompetent.

    It's not surprising though since they are given such a small amount of time to do actual research on each submission. It does not lend itself to individual attribution and authentication, but it's great for grading of the masses.
  17. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    They don’t have issues with authentication. Suggesting otherwise is just wrong. Their authentication error rate is minuscule assuming you’re talking about the reputable ones.

    Varieties some services are better than others, I don’t put much weight into NGC varieties since they aren’t guaranteed.

    They have as much time as they need with each coin. When it’s your job to look at coins all day the majority can be done quickly but if they need longer they take longer
  18. Eduard

    Eduard Supporter**

    Assuming the coin in question is a 1793-1857 copper, the overwhelming odds are it is a fake.
    Given the degree and depth to which these coins have been studied by EAC and many others over so many years, the probability of a new variety being discovered are extremely low in my opinion. I would not gamble any significant amount.
    Stevearino and mark_h like this.
  19. Marshall

    Marshall Junior Member

    There's nothing to be gained arguing about why you trust them and I do not. My experience and yours are different which leads is to the disagreement.

    Let's just get back to the original question about how far you'd go to get a coin which might be great, but is far more likely a fake/counterfeit.
  20. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    I’m just correcting you for people that are new or don’t know better. It is a fact that they do not struggle with authentication and their miss rate is minsicule for that. You don’t have to trust them but false information leads to rumors that people start beliving
    Stevearino likes this.
  21. Oldhoopster

    Oldhoopster Member of the ANA since 1982

    This is not meant to be a smart answer, but you’re basically betting on your own skill and knowledge of early copper. The amount of that bet depends on your confidence in your abilities and what you perceive as the probability of finding something new.
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