We all know this old collecting maxim, but here's another explicit example closer to home: PCGS XF-40 1883 Hawaii $1 - $640 (~46,000 mintage) PCGS VF-Details 1893-S $1 - $3,605 (100,000 mintage) Even though I completely understand the market dynamics happening here, it still amazes me. FYI, I'd rather have the objectively more scarce Hawaii $1 than the Morgan. Thoughts? Other interesting examples? Clearly, the more direct example would be Seated dollars versus Morgans.
Mintage can be misleading, survival means a lot more. That said yes pretty much all Morgans are overpriced in terms of their availability just like many seated and barbers are underpriced by the same metric. Part of the problem though is that a lot of the harder series like seated and barbers are so expensive for nice examples that keeps people away and thus keeps prices suppressed. In the end though popularity will always win. You could have 1 of something but if no one else wants it it's essentially worthless.
No known mintages, but an Eide Mar silver denarius has over 70 examples known. It will go for $100k unless seriously damaged. I have coins that there are fewer than 5 of, (distinct type), that can be bought for $100. Popularity and promotion has always been the name of the game for pricing. Very few US coins are truly rare, or even scarce. They have been overhyped for decades. Rattle off "rarities" in US coins. Save for real coins like 1873 S half dime, 1822 half eagle, etc, most are either made up concoctions like the 1913 nickel or trial pieces. "Keys" that people talk about, 1877 cent, 09 S VDB, 1916 D dime, etc are so common they would sit untouched in junk bins if they were ancient or world coins.
Yeh, the two most important factors were mentioned by @baseball21. 1. Survival rate 2. Collector interest
There are more slabbed 1893-S Morgans and 1877 Indians than the entire surviving population of the most common half cent, the 1804 Plain 4 Without Stems. Yet you can get the half cent in XF or better for less than you would pay for either of the others in Good.
Very will stated, and, I think, so true! And, this certainly fits me. I'm a collector, because I enjoy it. It's my hobby. I collect what I like, and what helps me complete a date/mm collection of "circulated" coins. I actually don't care how valuable a coin is? Just care about if I like it, if it adds to what I'm collecting, and, most importantly, can I afford it? It's my hobby, not an investment. I'm not expecting to make money on my hobby, just enjoy it. If I played golf (I don't), I would enjoy it while I was able to play, but not make money on it. It would be a hobby. The same goes for my coin collecting. I enjoy history, and think that adds to my being interested in circulated coins. What a story they could tell? Sorry, I just got a "little" to wordy, lol, just to say, "Interest" and "can I afford it" dictates my "hobby". But, I really enjoy seeing the great coins that some of you have, and have learned a lot about my hobby.
I am old enough to have been collecting dollars when the GSA put up the Morgan CC's for sale. Even though hundreds of thousand of CC's hit the market virtually all at once, [increasing the supply ten-fold?; a hundred fold?; maybe even more?], prices went up! Thanks to the government's huge marketing program, where before you had a coin that maybe a few hundred people wanted, you now had a coin that tens of thousands of people [many of them previously non-collectors] now wanted.
I really didn't know that I would like collecting coins until my father left his "coin collection" to my brother and me. It was up to me to come up with the inventory of the coins and then to try to divide the collection equitably between us. The more I looked at my father's collection, the more I liked the coins. In many cases, I had to do research about the coins so that I could be equitable. There were about 30 Morgans, 20 Peace coins, and other coins that I had no clue that they existed. I finally got a list and was able to assign a value to the coin. I divided the collection and let my brother decide which set he wanted. I even told him that if he wanted to change his mine on the selection, he could, if he would make any and all changes within a reasonable time. I kept the coins that were in the set he did not select, apart, until I got his final approval. I don't know how much research he did, but he finally said that he wanted to switch sets with me, which I did, gladly, to settle it. I told him that his selection was final. He agreed. In the mean time, during my research, I found out that coin collection, although being "fun", was hard work, but I liked the details of collection. Since then, I have built up my coin collection. I only collect U.S. Coins, although I have quite a few of coins from Europe. I have learned a lot, but I still like to collection the Mint's coins. I have gotten a real kick out of watching Rick's and Coin Vault shows and the price they put on coins. Almost all my coins I purchased through the Mint is advertised by those to show to be at least double, if not more, than what I paid for them from the Mint. I was a lucky customer of the Mint's Enrollment. I just got the 2021 W American Silver Eagle and am very pleased. I will probably not get the Type 2 ASE W. Too little being produced and too many will sign on to buy them. Anyway, I liked this thread. Thanks for all your input.
I'll take the 1893-S Morgan...and kudos to whoever did the photos of both coin's reverse shots straight up. Shoot the coin for convenience and courtesy, not the label...at least for as long as some TPGs insist on labeling upside-down.
I agree. Just look at the mintages and values in the Red Book if you need proof of that. On the supply end, it's what survived, not what was minted.
Here’s my latest pickup, a certified Newfoundland 20 cent piece with a mintage of 40,000. Survival rate may not be very high as those coins saw a fair amount of circulation. I’m sure it is more rare than a 93s Morgan, but it is only a $30 coin. Demand is everything.
This is true! If demand is high, even if the supply is large value will be up. If demand is very low, even if the supply is tiny the value will be low.
