Message:

<p>[QUOTE=&quot;GoldFinger1969, post: 3888885, member: 73489&quot;]As an economist, I fully understand cause and effect.&nbsp; So debating which came first is probably beyond both of our pay grades. <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie8" alt=":D" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" />&nbsp; But I think SUPPLY from all the stuff coming out of the Mint has to affect demand at least with younger and less-wealthy buyers, right ?</p><p><br /></p><p>How much stuff came out of the Mint annually, Doug, when you were collecting as a kid ?&nbsp; I&#039;ll bet a FRACTION of that comes out today.&nbsp; So whatever $$$ you and others had went into Barbers and Mercury&#039;s and Franklins and Morgans and Saints. <b><span style="color: #ff0000"> Not today !!!</span></b></p><p><br /></p><p>Agreed.....</p><p><br /></p><p>Hmmm....go on....</p><p><br /></p><p>I am writing this before reading the rest of your post but I am guessing you are going to talk about the transformtive effects of the Internet and Web and related dissemination of pricing which is revolutionary compared to the decades before.</p><p><br /></p><p>Microeconomics 101 tells us that perfect markets require perfect information and granted we did not have that before 2000.</p><p><br /></p><p>Anyway, I die grass<img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie8" alt=":D" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" />....back to your stuff....</p><p><br /></p><p>OK....sounds like you are saying price transparency has taken a quantum leap.&nbsp; Like we are all Scott Bakula&#039;s now......<img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie8" alt=":D" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" /></p><p><br /></p><p>OK, I am willing to buy PART of what you are saying in that in the aggregate we might not see huge increases in coinage, just like the supply of gold tends to increase only 2-3% a year.&nbsp; But I think mintage of new stuff from the U.S. Mint has to be calculated in here somehow, Doug.&nbsp; If you ask today&#039;s kids where their Coin $$$ are going vs. where 1965 Kids put their $$$, you get to the nux of the problem.</p><p><br /></p><p>But you are saying that folks were UNAWARE of the huge increase in supply out there, sort of like the hidden hoards of Saints that could hit any particular year or mint mark.&nbsp; Call me skeptical here but not a naysayer.</p><p><br /></p><p>You seem to be saying that The Coin Bubble of 1990 led to such a spike that it suckered in alot of people and killed a generation of coin buyers.&nbsp; In other words, the 1990 Coin Bubble was the 1929 Stock Market Crash (took a generation to forget), not the 1987 Crash (reversed in 2 years).</p><p><br /></p><p>But dealers themselves have been saying how they have NOT been making a killing the last few years or decades...many have left the business...Central States Coin Show down 40% in dealer tables etc.....so are they REALLY setting the market or is Ebay, HA, Stacks, etc.?</p><p><br /></p><p>Dealers set the market years ago when there was NOT price transparency, you think they are the ones setting it today ?&nbsp; If dealers are setting any markets 25% below Ebay or HA or Stacks or GC, then it&#039;s going to show up there quickly if not instantaneously.</p><p><br /></p><p>How long can dealers misprice ?&nbsp; A few days...weeks....as we saw with the 1903-O Morgan in 1962 ?</p><p><br /></p><p>I think you are saying here that prices across the board went too high because the TPGs graded too loosely...a new generation came in and said they would only pay MS63 prices for MS65&#039;s.&nbsp; I don&#039;t think that&#039;s the case in the aggregate, I think it&#039;s an observation (a correct one, granted) by very astute and expert numismatists like yourself, Doug.&nbsp; But I don&#039;t think 99.9% of the coin-collecting public is playing that game.</p><p><br /></p><p>IOTW....I think most people assume the TPG grades are the official umpire calls and only in exceptional circumstances can you disagree.</p><p><br /></p><p>Or maybe many people finally threw in the towel from The 1990 Coin Bubble and the early-2000&#039;s Mini Bubble where premiums to bullion for quasi-bullion coins went parabolic.&nbsp; It takes YEARS to burn off those excesses and it snowballed right around the 2008 Financial Crisis, which accentuated the price drops to the downside.</p><p><br /></p><p>Well, I think I learned alot from you and others here at CT but I still think that supply and demand rule.&nbsp; And I think that 2 or 3 new supply forces are present that weren&#039;t there 20 or 50 years ago....and demand has other forces looking for wallet share (including the ease of stock trading today vs. pre-2000 or even pre-1975).[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

Your name or email address:

Do you already have an account?

• No, create an account now.
• Yes, my password is:
• Forgot your password?

Stay logged in