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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;GDJMSP, post: 3888796, member: 112&quot;]My opinion, your 1st answer has nothing to do with anything, the 2nd is, to some degree at least, <u>a result</u> of the US market dropping - not <u>a cause</u> of the US market dropping. </p><p><br /></p><p>To really understand the bear market you&#039;ve gotta go back to the beginning of the bull market in US coins and ask yourself how and why did that happen ? Once you&#039;ve figured that part out, understanding the reasons for the bear market becomes a whole lot easier, some might even say obvious.</p><p><br /></p><p>I believe the answer to the question - of why the huge downturn in US prices - can be attributed to one word - knowledge. But that one word covers a whole lot of territory.</p><p><br /></p><p>So, knowledge of what ? Knowledge of how markets work for one, and for the most part that&#039;s fairly simple. Markets are a whole lot like snowballs, they can sit basically static for a long time. But let something come along and give that snowball a nudge - once it gets rolling it&#039;s pretty hard to stop, and the more it rolls the more it just keeps getting bigger and bigger. But eventually it will stop, and then it begins to melt and gets smaller and smaller.</p><p><br /></p><p>Some folks might say that&#039;s way oversimplified, but it really isn&#039;t. The reasons for most things that happen are really simple, it&#039;s just that most folks aren&#039;t aware of them. But add knowledge into the mix, and what you have is more and more folks becoming aware. And that&#039;s the nudge to the snowball. </p><p><br /></p><p>When it comes to coins, supply and demand really doesn&#039;t have much to do with anything. Think about it, the supply, the number of collectible coins out there has been the same for hundreds of years. They&#039;re not new, they weren&#039;t just freshly minted, their numbers did not increase - they were always there. The only that changed is that, through knowledge, more and more people became aware of where that supply was. And once ya know where the supply is well buying it is easy. </p><p><br /></p><p>So, you add knowledge, now you know where the supply is, the snowball has been given a nudge and it&#039;s rolling. And as it rolls it gets bigger and bigger. And one of the things that helps it get bigger and bigger is that for twenty years before it began rolling the TPGs came along and added a feeling of confidence into the mix. And the increase of knowledge allowed more and more people, including all the new collectors, to become aware. And all those new collectors helped the snowball get even bigger and bigger because they thought they could trust the TPGs. </p><p><br /></p><p>Now you add more knowledge, like knowledge of the true underlying force behind the coin market, the thing that makes it go at all - the electronic dealer market. 80% of all coin sales that occur take place on the electronic dealer market - they always have. Clear back to the days of ticker tape. The dealers have always been aware of this, it&#039;s how they make their living, but the vast majority if collectors knew nothing about it. But give that knowledge to collectors and boy, you better get out of the way - because that snowball is about to get a whole lot bigger ! And you&#039;re gonna get all caught up in it.</p><p><br /></p><p>Now add some more knowledge, all those new collectors, and all the collectors who have been around for years and years, they&#039;re beginning to learn things, to find things out. And suddenly they begin to realize that the TPGs they were placing so much trust in, well they made some changes a few years back, changes that only a few were aware of at first. And those few were the most knowledgeable. But that&#039;s the thing about knowledge, it has a way of spreading - sooner or later this happens that happens and it gets out. And more and more collectors and dealers begin to realize that the TPGs, the trust part of the equation, made those changes. And then CAC comes along and confirms that the changes had been made. And that the trust, well it simply doesn&#039;t exist anymore.</p><p><br /></p><p>Once that happens, and it only takes a year, and the knowledge has become widely enough known that the snowball stops and begins to melt in 2008. And the more it melts the faster it melts. </p><p><br /></p><p>That brings us to today, and it was all the result of one thing - knowledge. That&#039;s why the US coin market is where it is.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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