US Coin Market Stagnant

Many setup at recent show around me cited inability to make decent profit selling US Coins reason considering cashing out or going into some other Numismatic area. One fellow said “I can’t even clear my table fee (after expenses) will sell out put it into stocks. These people coming in the door broke or just looking buy cheap like at wholesale.”

A major wholesaler set up next to me selling at bid less 5 pct (demoralizing) coupled with a large national dealer (huge inventory) across the room did not help my sales. To be competitive with him I was willing move material around bid plus 15 pct.

Considering the steady downward direction of PCGS 3000 not surprising many wanting cash out.

currently 3 yr index 54772 now vs 57300 base in 2016.

 

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I guess the old adage, "Buy the coin, not the holder" needs to be changed to "Buy the coin, not the holder and sticker."

I purchase coins to collect. I buy them because they appeal to me. I try to inform myself about a coin I'm interested in buying so I pay a fair price but I really do not think about "How much can I make when I sell it?"

Bullion is a completely different animal. I do try to buy gold or silver "cheap" and hope I'm smart enough to turn a profit.

 

We probably had a huge increase in LCS's and dealers as a result of the boom period of 1972-1992. Deciding to leave takes longer than to enter, and many people probably stayed in the business HOPING things would turn around. I wonder if there's a number for how many coin dealers and LCSs there are over the decades ?

Sadly, like with retail stores and mall closures, we may need an exodus of the weaker dealers/LCS to strengthen it for the rest. Ebay and HA and Stacks-Bowers online don't help.

 

I'm like you AS....I buy what I like in coins and bills. If over decades they appreciate, great. If not, who cares.

At a minimum, whoever handles my estate will have fun assigning values to things they probably are only worth FV.

 

I have to go over the 11 or so subsets of the PCGS 3000 and find out where the carnage has been. And if world coins -- which GD and others say have been strong -- are in that index, it's going to mean that the U.S. coins did even worse.

 

I have decided to reduce total investment by a third thru sales attrition (not replacing that portion of inventory sold). My gut tells me to simply get rid of it all but I like coins too much.

What areas have reached bottom or is there way still to go? I see reduced population of collectors a major factor. Online is here to stay but I don’t see venues with high fees being able to survive against lower priced competitors (like eBay or GC) in the long term.

 

In answer to a prior question:

It’s a mixed bag and can be subject to the CAC bid premium in the sheet. Coins which are PQ tend to trade higher vs their relative bid in the sheet whether CAC or not. Less than (market perceived) PQ material the sticker does not usually help in my experience. It depends on the taste of the buyer and rarity / demand of the piece.

 

Trust me, it's not fun. I just priced a bunch of coins for an estate sale this weekend. About half of the items (mostly state quarters in third party holders, plus circulated SBAs and Ikes) are going back to the deceased man's adult daughter as spending money.

We priced the proof sets and silver proof sets at just over 2x face & melt value respectively. Considering what the buyer probably paid for them from the mint, he'd have been better off buying beer, drinking the beer, and saving the cans for their aluminum value!

 

You mean HA and Stacks ?

Not familiar with GC, but on Ebay some of the prices end up via bidding or the ask price are higher than HA. They have lots of fees to sell there and many are not as experienced in buying/selling and often have higher-bought merchandise they don't want to sell at a loss.

 

Just remember on eBay the prices you see don't tell the whole story just as they don't with the auction houses. You pay for shipping with the auction houses, it's often free on eBay. You also get eBay bucks, discount coupons, other promotions etc with eBay so while the price may look higher it very easily can be cheaper for the buyer if not significantly cheaper.

If I have 500 in eBay bucks I don't really care if the seller is making a profit as it's free to me whereas somewhere else it would be real money.

It also goes both ways. Different things do better on the different venues and for the most expensive fee places the better consignments aren't paying the full fee anyways.

 

Many many years ago I warned people that there would be a general decline in coin prices preceded by a crash in 2008 that would last over a decade and perhaps as long as 20 years. The crash was just a cyclical financial move and the decline would result from demographic forces.

Now with ability to see much of this behind us I believe we may emerge from this much sooner than I had predicted. Even though selling of classic coinage by baby boomers is not yet peaked the buying of it by younger people is somewhat faster than I predicted simply because boomers are retiring sooner than I expected allowing higher wages to the young. The turnaround this time will be marked by stock market woes (from a much higher level) and dramatic metals increases caused by a runaway federal government. The "wealth factor" from increasing metals prices will be plowed into the hottest coins which will continue to be moderns and whatever else young folks are buying at the time. Things like 1/2 OZ platinum could be scorching hot in 10 or 12 years. In the meantime even prices for classics will have begun a good turnaround and will eventually exceed all previous levels. There is no need to worry about these until 10 years after all cash is eliminated. As long as Bitcoin stays low real money is king.

Just remember don't take investment advice from people on the net, don't invest in coins, and advice is never worth more than you pay for it.

 

I don't think you're right, but your arguments certainly make sense. Have a coveted "disagreeing like".

 

I just got back from a local coin show - and saw the same sellers as I did last time - but there was an uptick of buyers compared to last month. Yes the majority of people there were over 50 but I saw a few little kids (with grandparents) and even some teenagers.

I brought my 78yo dad with me - he didn't buy anything but he was interested in looking. I don't think the coin collector fever took him over, even though, when I was a kid, he had several mint sets and a pile of pre-clad silver.

 

Several things can change to make the prediction very wrong. It will be unusual times in ten years for the hobby because so many of the "old timers" and "backbone of the hobby" will be in their 20's, 30's and 40's instead of the typical 50's and 60's.

I always figured the boomers would work further into their '60's and '70's than previous generations but this doesn't seem as pronounced as I expected. I suppose it's due to pensions, inheritances, stock market profits and social security negating the need for income even for those with relatively "easy" jobs" and high pay.

Of course when you get in your '60's nothing is really easy except coins.

 

Nothing is constant in markets. Right now looks like a good time for buyers to buy coins though. And this buying is introducing another generation of coin geeks into the market which is always a good thing. It seems like there are more people my age (mid-late 20's) getting into PM's and Numismatics than 10 years ago.

 

And I just got back from mine, where the crowd was a bit larger than usual, probably because of other events in the area at the same time. A few new sellers, my favorite dealer wasn't there (probably at Baltimore this weekend). Lots of dealers looking to buy gold and slabbed stuff.

Very little enthusiasm among the dealers for buying 90% junk silver, and at least one dealer was trying very hard to move 40% at 10% less than melt -- yeah, it trades at a discount, but this is the first time I've seen dealers willing to sell that low. Most dealers seemed to want 13x or more for junk 90%, and weren't willing to buy it for more than 10x.

 

huh? Moderns?

At least you mentioned that we shouldn’t take advice from people on the Internet

 

I've been collecting coins for 50 years but really started seriously collecting again about 15 years ago. I've been purchasing collections from friends who mostly got them from a deceased loved one. I like to fill holes using eBay, local auctions, or coin shows. Part of the fun of the hobby for me is the history but also the value of my collection over time. I'm constantly revaluing my collection, which is heavily weighted to silver coins. I estimate the value of most of the collection at the silver price minus 10% and use eBay to value coins and sets that may have collector value. Based on my estimates, I'm currently making 1.0902% off my initial investment. As inflation is 2%, I'm losing money each year without counting the tax burden on my earned income. Furthermore, it is most likely that I've overvalued the collection as it should probably be 25-30% less than precious metal costs to cover sales & marketing and shipping. Oh well, it is something for my daughters to eventually deal with. I'm not selling until death do we part.

 

What do you base this on ?