US Coin Market Stagnant

I've found it somewhat confusing as well, other than there's really only two affordable years to pick from. Most stock has been messed with or is just well worn and beat up. I have to believe it just comes down to despite the high population, not enough were saved in MS to satisfy collector demand for them. MS-62s and 63s appear to have doubled in value since 2006. People would get sticker shock if they went shopping for one of these lately in AU to MS.

The internet has revealed realistic supply and demand. Some things may not be rare but you could call the supply scarce enough. Look for problem free mint state barber halves.

 

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At 27 I can tell you I did not take interest, and get into this hobby, with the thought of making money. This is simple economics. If the market is stagnant, price decreases. It could have a negative impact on coin dealers or others who buy to flip but it is a positive thing for me because I can get coins at a lesser price than before. I collect what I like and I do not expect to sell my collection. I will pass it down to my boys should they take interest.

 

Sometimes I feel the coin market is stagnant only for the coins I'm not bidding on.

 

No respect, no respect at all!

 

If you're not bidding on them, then that's demand the coin isn't meeting. Lack of demand for a limited supply=declining prices. The coin market relies on you, buyer!

 

If the coin market relies on me then there's no hope.

 

The problem is that we had 2 major bubbles/spikes on that chart.

We're still "burning off" the excess from the 2nd bubble. We are probably basing/bottoming right now but that doesn't preclude a bit further to fall or a few more years of going sideways.

As I said, we've NEVER in the last 50 years had a few years of normalcy in the coin business.

 

Eh.....the NFL calls their PSL Seat Licenses as "good investments" and the SEC says squat.

Wall Street didn't care about what PCGS was saying. Liquidity was drying up on Wall Street following the blowup of Drexel Burnham Lambert and the high-yield market took a major hit in October 1989 (it had been rocky before that).

But the Merrill Lynch and Kidder Peabody $$$ never materialized for whatever reasons. Folks who bought coins up 50-200% in a few months on exepectations that they would go up another 100-200% got burned badly.

 

There's probably LESS DOWNSIDE now at current levels since we are down so much. I hate saying that because something fell 50% or 75% that significant downside doesn't still exist (stuff sometimes falls 90-95%). But it does appear -- if only for mathematical and time reasons -- that the BULK of the declines in most U.S. coins has already been experienced. Doesn't mean there's a bit more decline, though.

And for those coins tied to bullion -- like generic Saints or Morgans -- should gold or silver get hit bigtime, that could drag them down even though the absolute pricing and the premiums embedded in them now are at historical or multi-decade lows.

But I agree with the posters. This is a hobby, with investment potential as a side benefit if that. Figure that any $$$ you put into coins you will NEVER get back and that way you'll be prepared financially and emotionally.

That's how I look at both numismatics and bullion. Of course, I probably do have residual value in both, but I just don't count on it as I do with my stocks and bonds.

 

I’m in the weird position where I want prices to stop going up. It’s getting to the point where I cannot afford the coins I want. They were extremely affordable 10-15 years ago

 

Can you give us specific coins that ran away from you in price ?

 

US coins, yes. I’m not talking about US coins.

10 years ago, this was a $1000 coin. It is now a $5000 coin and rising. I will eventually find an affordable example...



10 years ago, these could be had for less than $200 a pop. Good luck finding one today for less than $1000. I snatch up deals when they pop up.



10 years ago, this set could be put together for a few thousand dollars. Now you need a minimum $25000. One set sold for over $100K!



These are but a few examples. Maybe someday...

 

It’s the US coins forum and this thread is about the US market ;-)

 

Fair.

 

That just makes the abnormalities the norm, there's just to many things that go into it to expect them to be completely stable for extended periods. But you were spot on and I always just laugh when it's suggested PCGS had the ability to control wallstreet decisions

 

Typecoin, what were those coins you posted above ?

And the first few pics weren't of coins, what were they ?

 

I had friends at KP and MLPF&S....they thought they would be able to charge fat management fees, regardless of what the coins did price-wise.

Liquidity began to dry up in the Spring of 1989....in October 1989, the high-yield ("junk") market collapsed. With gold not doing much, the big brokerage firms couldn't convince people to put serious $$$ into the coin funds.