TPG Test?

Discussion in 'US Coins Forum' started by Jack D. Young, Apr 26, 2021.

  1. Jack D. Young

    Jack D. Young Well-Known Member

    Question for my Group and I will ask here!

    Is it fair to test the TPG's by submitting one of the documented struck counterfeits for authentication?

    Interested in all opinions pro and con.

    The1st image is of the denominations/ "varieties" we have documented as fakes; the $ figures in red are documented selling prices for examples known sold.

    174106480_2847162625542764_3337337635050753155_n.jpg 3-TPGs.jpg
     
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  3. ddddd

    ddddd Member

    I think it is fine to test them.
    An issue is that one or two coins won't show much. What I'd think would be more informative is if a larger amount were sent in over the course of a few submissions (and the same grouping was sent to every TPG). That might get expensive though.
     
  4. Publius2

    Publius2 Well-Known Member

    Now that is a thought-provoking proposition. Is it fair? I think that may depend upon how it is done and for what purpose. But my general feeling is that while it may be "fair", it may not be wise because it feels like a "gotcha" exercise. My thinking below:

    First, we all know instances where such tests are conducted. The TSA tests of their own screeners at the airports comes to mind. Your test, unlike the TSA's, would be done by a third party (you) not internally by the TPG.

    So, I suspect that if the TPG was not involved and you embarrassed them by publicizing the results, then they would not be appreciative to say the least. I suppose this would qualify as "unfair" and you would also probably be persona non grata.

    If you involved the top management of the TPGs and received their buy-in ahead of time, then they might be willing to go along as an exercise in honing their graders' skills and knowledge. But I think they would be hard-pressed to keep it from their graders and I still think they would fear the embarrassment if the results got to the public.

    So I imagine the TPG reaction would likely be negative regardless of how it was approached.

    Maybe the next question is if your goals would be enhanced or damaged by pursuing this course. Since you haven't stated what your goals are, I can only guess and I would much prefer if you stated them.

    But I don't see much point in it myself since the TPGs and we already know they have slabbed and certified as genuine documented counterfeits.
     
  5. furham

    furham Good Ole Boy

    I'm normally against such things as this, but in this in case I think it's a good idea. Some people here think that one TPG or the other is infallible.
     
  6. thomas mozzillo

    thomas mozzillo Well-Known Member

    Maybe it would be a good idea to alert the top honchos at the 4 major TPGs that you're going to do this, and they should advise their graders of your plan. This should cause the graders to be more alert. Whether you send them in or not is your decision but I believe in all fairness you should go ahead and submit a few to each TPG. (IMO it wouldn't be right to say you're doing this and not follow through).
     
  7. Jack D. Young

    Jack D. Young Well-Known Member

    Great response @Publius2!

    I consider it a test of the Hobby at this point; we have written over 30 articles documenting and detailing these as we know them and published them in over 5 different venues as well as forums such as this and Face Book Groups and made the information available through contacts at all of the 4 top TPGs. In several cases the TPGs shared images of theirs from submission packages as we researched each one.

    TPGs are seen as the paid "experts" and I would hope to be one of the lines of last defense on these; the question becomes are their processes improved to the point these will no longer pass their authentication processes currently or will they continue to pass as good. And 5+ years down the road are the counterfeits better and what chance do they have just becoming authentic along with genuine examples?

    I have shown genuine slabbed examples in small displays at several major coin shows with the general collecting public making statements of "they have to be genuine, XXXX says they are on the slab"...
     
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  8. John Burgess

    John Burgess Well-Known Member

    I think it's fine to test to see if they will catch them or not, I don't think it's fine to publish any results of your tests and put them on blast about it, except between you and them, to make them aware they failed if your true intent is to improve the hobby and their alertness.

    I don't think they should be warned, any schmoe would just submit it and wait and see what happens, so I think that's fine to do, but I think a line gets crossed here if you did put the results out on them to the public of their success or failure based on a total random surprise and a possible off day for a grader who was in over their head.

    I think it could be a pretty valuable learning tool for them to experience, I do not think it should damage or improve their reputations for them to learn though that's a bridge too far in my opinion.

    Now, I do think afterwards you could contact the higher ups about your test and the results, one on one, they might find the data useful for the business and improvement. heck they may even refund the fees in return for doing it, and keeping it between yourselves, who knows.

    Just this one mans opinion on it.
     
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  9. Marshall

    Marshall Junior Member

    It is actually a good idea to inform the collecting world of the threat to the hobby. If they cannot be caught by the Experts at TPGs, then values for both the authentic and fakes that can pass will go down from simple supply and demand. I've noticed the market seems to be down already since about 2009 (The Holmes Sale) which appears to be at or near the peak of the market.

    This might in part be due to better fakes working their way into the market.

    But I can see completely different reactions by different TPGs as they assess their individual exposure verses the exposure to the collecting community at large.

    I wish decisions like this were easier. But somebody will not like whatever choice you make, even if it's for the good of the hobby.
     
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  10. Publius2

    Publius2 Well-Known Member

    The TPGs are not academic enterprises. While I am not privy to their thinking or internal processes, I believe they are primarily interested in counterfeits and altered genuine coins (AGCs) to the extent that they feel their business is negatively impacted by their existence. They are certainly aware of them - NGC has a monthly full-page article in the ANA's The Numismatist documenting their identification of submitted counterfeits and AGCs.

    Your efforts over the last few years has highlighted many of these coins that made it through the TPGs and I am reasonably sure that they pay attention to your scholarship and include it into their database for use by their reviewers. It is only in their best business interest to do so. After all, a 1793 S-5 Wreath Cent that they certified as genuine and which sold for $14,400 is nothing but an embarrassment for them.

    If you pursue this, and I am not saying you shouldn't, then my recommendation would be to gain agreement from the owners of these enterprises beforehand so that you and they can negotiate the goals and terms of the engagement.

    I hope these comment are helpful to you. They are intended to be positive.

    By way of disclosure, I have no financial or other type of entanglement with any of the TPGs. I am just a mid-level collector with limited coin collecting experience but lots of experience with life, business and law.
     
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  11. micbraun

    micbraun coindiccted

    No no... only one of them is infallible ;-)

    Seriously, I’d submit a couple of known good large cents along with a single counterfeit. I’d select a more common variety and certainly not the $14k coin. I’d submit this group of coins to all major TPGs under a regular service level and compare the results without publishing them.
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2021
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  12. Vess1

    Vess1 CT SP VIP Supporter

    I was just going to say, we already know fakes have made it into authentic slabs on occasion without doing this test. I thought they were somehow collectible to some in their own right?
     
    micbraun likes this.
  13. Jack D. Young

    Jack D. Young Well-Known Member

    Obviously I have done this test a few times already with various results.

    1 TPG can take the time to literally put each example "under the microscope" and they do a very good job determining the counterfeits. I have actually developed a friendship with a Sr Grader there over these. They actually only have 2 documented in their slabs from when this started.

    1 TPG literally slabs anything and after several recently passed I have no reason to send them another unless the goal is to have all certified "genuine" in my opinion.

    1 TPG has apparently taken the research and documentation seriously and kicked one out recently to their credit.

    And 1 TPG has certified the last 2 submitted even though one was documented by them early on as counterfeit.

    If I run out of samples to submit this all becomes moot anyway...
     
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  14. masterswimmer

    masterswimmer A Caretaker, can't take it with me

    When we submit a coin for authentication and grading we are paying for a service. The TPG's have every obligation to their clientele to put out the best product/service they can. They are not beyond reproach, although some of them believe they are and do all they can to make the paying customer believe they are.

    @Jack D. Young I think what you propose is great for the hobby. I don't believe the management at any of the TPG's should be forewarned to your test. There's no reason they should have the upper hand being able to alert their authenticators to the pending 'secret shopper'. Why anyone would think the TPG's are above validation puzzles me. We pay them to be the experts. They don't put their product out to us with the caveat that they might be wrong. They are so sure of their authentication process they offer guarantees.

    Not that it matters to you Jack, but I wholeheartedly endorse your endeavor. I also believe it is in the best interest to the numismatic community to make the results, both positive and negative, available to the consumer. Again, they are not beyond reproach. Holding them accountable for the service they provide is what consumerism is all about.

    Kudos to you Jack.
     
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  15. justafarmer

    justafarmer Senior Member

    The answer lies in creation of a neural network - not a microscope.
     
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  16. Jack D. Young

    Jack D. Young Well-Known Member

    A microscope and the time to look through it is better than most!
     
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  17. halfcent1793

    halfcent1793 Well-Known Member

    I'm pretty much with Publius 2 on this. It feels like a "gotcha."

    Does anyone here really think any TPG is infallible? Does anyone here think any TPG considers itself infallible? If they were, or thought they were, there would be no need for them to offer a guarantee of genuineness.

    Everybody makes mistakes. An extremely knowledgeable dealer I know has been fooled once, but he made good on it.

    The best we can hope for is to increase knowledge in the community by remaining alert and exposing the bad coins and their sellers as often as we can.
     
    Jack D. Young likes this.
  18. wxcoin

    wxcoin Getting no respect since I was a baby

    I find the comments so far good. There are good arguments either way. We all know that counterfeits have gotten past the TPGs. However, since the TPGs don't perform their services for free then it's their duty to do their best in detecting fakes from the real thing; we pay for that service. I think sending in these fake coins to the TPGs performs a service to them and us. If they get huffy about someone purposely sending them a fake just to test them, then I question their integrity which affects all of us collectors. Do they really want us to blindly trust them?

    Not all experts work for the TPGs. Many of the fakes aren't highly valuable coins. I'm sure the graders for the lesser valuable coins probably have the least experience in grading and detecting fake coins. By identifying fakes that get past their graders, the TPGs should embrace the coin community for this service. They can add this knowledge to theirs. It benefits them and us!
     
  19. John Skelton

    John Skelton Morgan man!

    I believe we, as coin collectors and, by extension, consumers of a service, should be able to trust the service providers to be trustworthy. I have long had a subscription to Consumer Reports so I can get unbiased information on products. I believe such information should be made public about such tests and their results.
     
  20. AuldFartte

    AuldFartte Well-Known Member

    I'm on the fence where this experiment is concerned. First, I think testing the TPGs is potentially good for the hobby as those who make submissions to TPGs really would hope that all of their coins submitted are in fact genuine. The service TPGs provide usually come with a guarantee (except in the case of one TPG I know of that doesn't guarantee that ancient coins are genuine) and collectors rely on their expertise rather heavily. The same goes for purchasers of slabbed coins.

    But, second, I feel that the potential embarrassment factor for TPGs along with the public's potential negative perception of those TPGs for certifying a counterfeit as genuine could damage their reputation, and thus, their bottom line. People who do submit coins to the TPGs might be hesitant to do so in the future.

    I think if you conduct this experiment, the results should be published, but the TPGs in question should not be publicly identified. And BEFORE you publish the anonymous results, notify the head of each TPG that this experiment has been conducted, give them your reasons for doing so, and make it very clear that their TPG will NOT be identified publicly. They need to know that you had absolutely no malicious intent by conducting the experiment, and it was just for the improvement of the hobby in general, or something like that. I believe this approach will avoid any potential embarrassment, humiliation, anger, or legal action being taken by the TPGs.

    Even submitting one counterfeit to four different TPGs would be an expensive proposition. A larger size submission would be extremely expensive, but that's entirely up to you. That's just my humble opinion, Mr. Young. I hope it is helpful to you.
     
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  21. Mountain Man

    Mountain Man Supporter! Supporter

    Because the large corporations and businesses pay big bucks for Efficiency Experts, Loss Prevention evaluations, Mystery Shoppers, etc. I would think that TPG would welcome a test of their graders.
    If you approached each of the big four owners with a "gentleman's challenge" to test their graders, with the idea that it would help them know if their employee's and the companies reputation were as good as possible, they should take you up on it.
    Outline your conditions, i.e., no advance notice of the submission, publishing the results without specifically naming each, being reimbursed for the submission, etc. then I think it would do the hobby a real service. Just my opinion.
     
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