I am not a person who normally rides the market prices or recommends buying fractional gold, but this just might be the time and place. This article in CoinWeek points out the drop in prices of fractional gold coins since 2009 and there might be real opportunity for long term collectors and short term investors. It would appear that gold coins in less than an ounce quantity have taken quite a tumble since 2009, in some cases as much as 50%. So if you want to build a set of let's say Indian Eagles or Liberty Half Eagles this might be the chance. http://www.coinweek.com/us-coins/us...tegies-generic-gold-coins-fall-historic-lows/
It seems to me that this is the same question that we face in any other market -- is it a "dip", or is this the new normal? During the big run-up in silver at the beginning of the decade, premiums for better types and dates shrank. You could often buy Barber dimes, quarters and halves for the same price as 1960s stuff. I tried to take advantage of that, choosing coins that were more likely to retain numismatic value if (or, as it turned out, when) the price of silver came back down. I feel like I came out a bit ahead by doing so. But if I'd tried the same thing with gold, this article makes it look like I really wouldn't have come out ahead very much -- at least not now. Will the premiums rebound? It's hard to say, but one thing seems clear: there isn't that much room for them to go further down. (Well, except on gold dollars and quarter eagles, I guess...)
I read the article. Honestly, it's refreshing to hear a voice in the market be honest about how the market has fallen. I roll my eyes everytime I hear David Hall's rare coin market report where all he says is, "Things are starting to look up." And, "I see signs pointing to the market really starting a big, big upswing!" JUST ADMIT IT'S BEEN IN THE CRAPPER FOR 2+ YEARS, DAVE! Also, one of my favorite go-to David Hall phrases: "PCGS Price Guide is what a knowledgeable dealer would ask a knowledgeable collector to pay for a coin." Yeah right....
While I understand what you're referring to when you say 2+ years, the honest truth is it's a whole lot worse than that ! While the market is currently at levels not seen since 2003, it was actually higher than it is right now in 1999. That's almost 20 years ago. And when you consider that, it puts things into, shall we say, a much clearer perspective. Also, when the market suffered its worst correction in history in 1989 it only took 5 years for it to reach its very bottom. What we are experiencing now, the market has been dropping for 9 years - and it's still going down. Without even a hint of slowing let alone stopping and reversing direction.
I don't regularly collect any gold coin series (or any series at all, really), but lower bullion prices no doubt had an unconscious affect on my recent small gold purchase. There are once again historic gold coins available for less than a hundred bucks - and not just tiny modern twentieth-ounce bullion pieces. I'll still continue to buy what catches my fancy, aesthetically and numismatically - with little regard for bullion prices - but "buyer's markets" can certainly be fun when they provide interesting opportunities. PS- I just read the article, though I'm sometimes a lazy reader and don't always read such analytical articles all the way through. I thought it was good.
Yes, I won't disagree, but I was referring to my own experience, where I had to adjust my buying prices by more than 1/3rd over the past 2.5 or so years. I nearly lost my butt, not adjusting fast enough!
I generally try not to look at the markets other than just a short term curiosity. At my age I am buying for the long haul and try to buy through out the cycles, much like you might average a stock cost over time. I also rarely sell anything because I am much more of a coin collector than coin investor. But, there are times when buying is more advantageous and if you are a collector or investor this seems like a time to ramp up your purchases a little more. Awareness of the markets certainly makes one a little more conscious of internet pricing. I would assume that dealers are in the process of working their inventory down, so there should be some bargains somewhere.
I bought this polished 1865 half sovereign last week for melt. Seemed like a good value and I think it will make a nice pendant for my daughter without destroying anything collectible.
When you see the first " I sold my house and granny's house and am backing the truck to the front door of the bullion shop" this cycle on CT, then wait another 20% down before considering to buy. Although I might buy Granny's house out of repo instead of gold Jim
The premiums on pre-33 are a lot easier to swallow now than they have been. The $2.50 and under are still stiff, but the $5 and $10 seem to be a good buy at this time. When the premium is close the same as sovereigns, it makes the decision on which to buy, being in the US, pretty easy. I have a question about which do you believe is a better buy for common date coins. Would you buy common date Indians or Liberties in the $5 and $10 denomination, with the premium being the same?
It seems that the Indians are a bit more in the $5 and $2.50, usually. I just bought 2 Indians and 1 Liberty $10 for $612 each. None are polished or obviously cleaned according to the friend of mine that just bought them. I think I did ok, the only time I've paid less is when gold was $100 or more less than it is now. While my preference is the Indian, when I go to sell the buy price is the same. Maybe I should get the buy price and then take the Indians out of the deal and see if they'll still make the deal. (when selling to a dealer)
