Thread ATS about "rampant gradeflation"

You may want to read this before it gets poofed. http://forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?catid=26&threadid=937859

The author of this thread on the PCGS forum is (or was) a top notch Franklin half collector, offering his opinion on "gradeflation". Anyone have an opinion on this?

 

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I feel he's dead on for certain series , though I'm not big on the Franklin series . I've noticed it in mostly 20th century coins , a coin in a 65 holder that a few years earlier it would only be in a 64 holder . These might be exceptions rather than the rule but it seems to be happening more and more .

 

good Link !

 

Some interesting discussion and commentary on the other side of the fence. I came away with the feeling that one day the merry go round is going to grind to a halt and that there will be some mightily P/O'd people. Also too.......anybody sense that there was a (certain) preference given to a certain (unnamed) dealer? Now I know the graders aren't supposed to know who is submitting coins to the service but I don't think it would be beyond a reasonable doubt to speculate that a guy who spends tons of money sending stuff in might (just maybe?) get some extra consideration. It's a stupid game, and one that's too rich for my blood.........

 

I opine... in no particular order.. registry sets have a lot to do with this, and the huge jump in price when going up by 1 point or a + in grade.. well heeled collectors who want these top pops put pressure on their dealers to provide them... who in turn submit coins multiple times until the subjectivity of grading gives them what they want...
Also, there are a lot of new graders at the TPG's, as the original group is retiring, with way less experience.. and consistency.. and maybe color has taken on an importance in grading that it didn't used to have.

 

Some very learned collectors are convinced that certain dealers receive preferred treatment in the grading room. I don't think that's the case as it is a blinded setting. BUT I think a clever dealer could salt some nice coins they are hoping to upgrade into a group of medicocre uninspiring coins, which could trigger a more positive response by the graders to the "nice stuff." But that is just theory, too.

 

They give the investor what they want. They want higher grades on the labels, not the coins.

 

I think it would be easier to spot specific dealers than one thinks.

NGC grader "oh we just received 10000 ASEs", "XXX dealer must've arrived (again!)"

Or PCGS grader "hey grader b, did you see those wicked nice groupings of barber quarters? Joe Smith must be at it again"

Or even info sharing. As a business owner I take notice and sometimes give special consideration to big clients, or loyal buyers, or whatever good reason to 'hook' someone up who patronizes me.

There's a million ways graders can be informed of who sent in what.

 

Power and money is what is important.
With that said both are to Blame.
Bottom line too.
Be #1 Also is in the equation.
The End.

 

The grading room isn't a coffee klatch. The graders don't have that much time to chitchat if they want to keep their jobs.

Chris

 

If a coin is sent in in the slab couldn't or wouldn't they be able to tell owned the coin, especially if it had been in a registry set? I don't know a lot about the TPG companies but it seems the majority only think PCGS and NGC are worthy of owning and now those seem to be in doubt. How can a novice purchase a graded coin from any company with confidence when they have only a rudimentary ability to grade coins to an exact number (say a 65 rather than 64 or 66) rather than just knowing it is Gem over Choice. I often read the GTG post and give my HO sometimes I'm right other times I may be off 1 point up or down. I know I'm not near the expert a lot of you are, but I am studying hard and have even bought the same coin in 3 different grades to try and learn more, but it is difficult at least to me to see the one point or the plus that given one coin over another. I admire the ability most on here seem to have.

 

I guess a grader could recognize a coin if they had a photographic memory, but I don't think you will find that to be the case very often. They still wouldn't have time to check any cert # and still do their job.

The top tier grading services are performing their jobs as they should be. The problem is that some people think it is not good enough even though they couldn't do the same job nearly as well.

Since grading is just an opinion, there will always be a difference of opinion, but if you can consistently grade within one point of the actual grade, then you should be okay as long as you aren't talking about high-priced coins or those where the jump from one grade to the next can be 5-6 figures.

Chris

 

This thought crossed my mind as well..........

 

Gradeflation is real. Anyone who doubts it hasn't been paying attention. Just ask the old-timers.

 

It just goes to show how there is money to be made.

 

What is better than having a collector submit a coin? Having that same coin come back through again of course! I do think standards will slowly drop in order to have every coin already graded come back through. Think about it, if ten years from now you have accurately graded coins but are competing against inflated grades, novice collectors are going to buy the higher grade on the slab and force people to play the crack out game.

 

Say you're looking for a Standing Liberty Quarter , a 1917-P FH in 64 , if you look at a lot of 64 coins you'll start to see the difference between the same graded coins . Soon you'll be able to tell the high end 64s that almost make 65 and the low grade 64s that just made the grade and the coins in the middle . So it's the experience of looking at and comparing like coins where you'll learn the differences . Do that before every buy and you'll do fine and have a nicer collection than just trusting the tpgs grade .

 

Has anyone considered that coins were improperly graded way-back-when? We know more now than we did then, IMHO.

I mean, just a few years ago smoking on airplanes was totally fine. Now... maybe that was a dumb idea.

When I was a child, car seats weren't required. Now... seems like we were all pretty stupid back then.

My point is, knowledge and proper understandings grow with time, experience, & practice. Why should we think any differently about our hobby?

 

At this point the PCGS "Old Green Holders" from 15 or more years ago are perceived to be more strictly graded. I wouldn't be surprised if a few years down the road more generations of slabs get added to that mix.