Thoughts on value trends in US coins

Yes, GD, we've talked about this before and I have taken note that after being bullish on the world coin sector -- and bearish on U.S. for years -- you recently gave this website a well-timed reversal on both.

You didn't say if that was based on time (18-year bull market bound to end and multi-year U.S. bear market ditto) or if it was based on valuations for each....or a combination of both.

But like a long-time bull on stocks going bearish or a long-time bear turning bullish, I noticed. Good calls !

Let me ask you....

(1) Are you looking for a CORRECTION in world coins...or a multi-year bear market accompanied by big declines, similar to what U.S. Coins just came out of ?

(2) Conversely, are you looking for the start of a bull market in U.S. coins (or even an end to the decline, and just bouncing along the bottom price-wise)... or just a "dead-cat" bounce ?

 

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Pre-1948 Chinese coins are increasing by almost 100% a year right now. Certain dynasties are super popular because of popular TV dramas set in those dynasties. As the majority of collectors get priced out of those Dynasties, they move to the next one and push the prices up, and so on and so forth. I have invested heavily in one dynasty that is probably next to explode in popularity

 

What are these TV dramas -- American shows or Chinese/Asian ones ?

 

No, but that matches up perfectly with Covid-19.....so unless you think that it "awakened" a whole new group of buyers to U.S. coins, it's interesting that you give an 18 month look-back for the move.

That's interesting because in financial markets (stocks), bull markets last much longer than bear markets because bear markets -- feeding on FEAR which is stronger than GREED -- can do their damage in a shorter period of time. Just think back to the start of the Covid-19 pandemic and a 34% drop in stock prices in 1 month. A 34% up-move would take 6-9 months normally, if not longer.

I totally agree.

Agreed.....

 

Let's delve a bit deeper....in the U.S. coin series that got really shellacked from 2010 to 2020 like Barbers and Franklins (among others).....has there been increased activity or higher prices or dealers saying stuff like "Hey, I haven't seen this much interest in American coins in years/decades " ?

Anybody ?

 

Let me be clear: I could care less about the "investment" performance of my coins. I bought them for enjoyment and if they make or lose money when I sell them down the line or when my estate is settled, I could care less.

That said, many people entering the field are doing so for investment reasons so I think it is incumbent upon us to (1) gauge the investment potential in terms of bullion prices and/or numismatic cycles, and (2) remind people that historically since 1980 coins in general have been a lousy investment.

 

I am still not clear. You could care less means you care. Do you mean you could NOT care less, meaning you don't care at all?

I know picky and this should be in the pet peeve thread. The saying is could not care less. Peace.

 

Oh no no. Definitely not the only two. It's a pet peeve of mine too.

 

Confirmed by way of analogous example - Lockdown sales boom puts model railway-maker Hornby back on track | Hornby | The Guardian

 

A lot of people like us will run out and grab anything they can (or can't) afford, figuring the market still has a bit of helium in it yet, or accumulate stacks of silver bars, and find themselves stuck with it, when the folks with all the fat bank accounts have sold off and decide to not support the market (buy) any longer.
In certain other collectible venues besides coins, people who've bought high are already seeing how it's not as easy as they thought it would be to sell higher.

 

I don't see it mentioned here, and it probably relates to other things, but Jan 2020 is about when CD/savings rates started going into the toilet. There is no place to securely put your money (I'm talking FDIC insured) and earn more than about 0.50%. You might as well spend it on coins. Personal experience only - I'm no financial wiz.

 

I've been trying to win some Early Commemoratives on GC and am getting blown out of the water.
Not just higher than Greysheet but also higher than CW and PCGS.
Because of that I'm not buying them.
I've got my EAC coins to keep me busy.
I'll wait until the Early Commemoratives seem to settle down.

 

Trust me, CD rates have SUCKED for 10 years now.

 

I'm very familiar. Our nestegg expired in 2012 and was earning 5.25%. The best we could do then was 1%. Things bounced back up in late 2018 and we locked in some stuff at 3.2-3.4% but it slowly dropped off the cliff after that. Back in early 2020 you could still get a 1 yr CD over 2% but the highest rates were all the shortest terms, which is totally upside-down from the traditional scenario.