this is an embarrassment

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Lowle, sorry you have such bad memories of the 1990's and I am sure that the Coin Bubble of 1989-90 left a very sour taste in your mouth.

But blaming the TPGs for the bubble is like blaming online brokers for the Internet Bubble of 1999-2000.

Ultimately, in each case, it is caveat emptor.

 

We have tons of threads here that are Guess The Grade. And while we have lots of guys get the grade exactly right and very few of us are off by more than 1-2 numerical grades, we do have differences.

If a dealer orders a coin that is MS-65, all he knows is he's going to get a slab that says MS-65. It might be OK for the grade or weak for the grade (I assume it's unlikely to be strong for the grade else it would be CAC'ed ).

We're all different in our grading. With the TPGs, the range has narrowed from when dealers would write the grade on the white 2x2's.

But people see things differently. Someone who sees a Saint with lots of bag marks but great luster may score it high; someone else, lower. Big "dings" on the edge or rim may be discounted by someone more concerned with marks on the devices or fields. The same marks on the obverse may be discounted less than on the reverse, or vice-versa, depending on if someone like the artwork more on the obverse or reverse.

Add in the fact that sometimes a 1 grade differential means a HUGE jump in price and that's why "sight unseen" was NEVER going to be seemless, Doug.

Now a common Saint in MS61 vs. MS62 vs. MS63 ? Probably doesn't matter, right ?

 

The big boys pay $5 a coin. Most can’t get that rate though. Collectors pay $12 a coin for bulk and $16 a coin for normal modern submissions. A lot of bigger submitting dealers probably have bulk rates between the $5 and $12.

The 5oz coins are more expensive from the oversized holders which they charge extra for for normal submissions, not sure about bulk.

 

Considering they sell for bullion prices basically no it doesn’t really currently matter. Large gold is usually really ugly in 61 no matter what anyways

 

Well, it cost $30 just to get it slabbed and graded. So whoever is selling it, is selling it at a loss.

 

That came LONG after ebay started, something like 15 to 17 years.

ANACS and ICG were able to meet the requirements fairly quickly as well. SEGS met the requirements about a year or so later but ebay never let them join the other four so they are still not permitted to be listed with a numerical grade.

 

And they don't need to keep any inventory.........

 

Yes it's a buyers market and a good time to fill some slots true. Think of the supply and demand nightmare this bubble will create when store, collectors etc are out of 60-82 cents in a couple of years. Instead of a trumped up supply and demand problem there will now, a real one. Will happen when mid to late century cents are so scarce there will be none to be had...so then the supply of what will be affected? Supply of TPG Grades? Someone has opened a proverbial can of worms

 

Just my opinion but I don’t think that memorial cents will become the next big thing, at least in the next 100 years.

Mass produced, ugly, poorly made is not a recipe for mass collectibility.

 

I wonder if common date Saint-Gaudens might become the "next best thing" sometime in the future.

I say that because today's generation is so uninformed about history that many millenials and others probably don't even know we had gold coins in general and Saint-Gaudens beautiful coins in particular.

I myself didn't know about them until I was in my 40's even though my uncle was buying them from Blanchard a decade earlier (I thought he was just buying regular issue American Eagles). And I'm very well-informed about history and finances, though I am the farthest thing from a 1970's or 1980's "Gold Bug."

I can see lots of gold investors and others buying low-grade common Saints as a substitute for bullion and/or paying up for small premiums (~20-30%) for special coins in the set and/or higher grades.

 

To give you an idea the three most graded coins by the TPGs are Saints, Morgans and ASEs.

Gold would almost certainly have to crash for the common date common grade ones to gain significant numismatic premiums, they're just to plentiful.

No one looking for a bullion substitute will be willing to pay a 20%+ premium. The high grades will have premiums, so will the hard dates but anything over say 10%ish (may actually be lower to a lot of people) and you're now in the numismatic realm and the bullion crowd loses all interest

 

Counterexample: Morgan dollars.

 

Interesting, thanks for the factoid !

Oh, I'm not concerned with that and I don't think any potential buyer would either....you're buying it for bullion.

Now, a numismatic coin like a common date 1924 MS65....in the past, the premium was anywhere from 50% to 200%. That's a huge premium to pay (though when the price of gold was lower it wasn't alot in absolute terms at certain times). But today you can buy that coin for about a 20% premium to bullion.

I disagree....they might not do it with ALL their bullion purchases, but they would certainly be open to getting 1 or 2 or a few. Or they could go down a bit in grade and eliminate the premium entirely.

Maybe I'm different, but I consider 20% and even 30% the key thresholds. I'm not saying that I paid up but I don't consider it quite the numismatic purchase like my 1923-D where I paid 100% premium to spot...or a 1907 HR (whenever I get one ) that is going to be 500-1000%.

 

Mods not doing well on the bay. Buyer got it for less than grading costs.

I have a few like that have $5 in.

 

But just how low must a person go? I averaged greysheet prices to come up with $5 each and I'm gonna eat the shipping and still no activity. edited

 

@frankjg you are SO correct about almost any coins post 1983. And in 100 years anything per-clad, in my thoughts, should be in substantially or better physical condition as are the US 1700 & 1800's some of us collect today. If for no other reason than their limited circulation time to population mass compared to most early European currencies. As the elements of US 20th century are no Helvetias ,{exception Draped Bust Large Cents} US fiduciary instruments celluloid, paper, metal should always be included in the history of the world. As to cladage, imagine what lies 20 feet below a landfill then think what was a Shield penny and I wonder what one looked like. About the condition I've seen 100's of 2018 and 2019's in today. My fear is one description of the noun "collector"; a person who collects things of a specified type, professionally or as a hobby, is what may be lost in the future

 

Lowell Thomas, and the news........

 

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