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<p>[QUOTE="IdesOfMarch01, post: 7515631, member: 39084"]A few years ago I collected 90 years of (yearly) raw data on the S&P, starting in 1927 before the Great Depression. I have since updated the data to include every year up to the end of 2020. The raw data I collected is simply the starting value of the S&P at the beginning of the year, plus the dividends paid that year. With this data you can calculate the yearly total return as well as the compounded annual return for any period.</p><p><br /></p><p>I also collected yearly inflation data as well, although this information varies slightly depending on the source you choose for the data.</p><p><br /></p><p>There is a wealth of information in the spreadsheet I created to analyze this data, and one of the more interesting bits is that there is no 20-year period (including the Great Depression and our recent Great Recession) during which the S&P's compounded annual return was not at least 2.37%. Further, for any 20-year period starting after 1932, the minimum 20-year compounded annual return is 5.47%; this minimum would be for the period 1999 - 2018.</p><p><br /></p><p>If you had invested $10K in the S&P index in the beginning of 2001 (and reinvested dividends), that $10K was worth almost $41,000 at the end of 2020 -- and much more in 2021. Inflation during that period was 49.4% so you would need $14,940 at the end of 2020 to purchase what you could buy for $10,000 in 2001 [corrected from 1999].</p><p><br /></p><p>My conclusion is that if you want a long term investment, buy the S&P index fund. Collecting high-end ancient coins is an enjoyable hobby, not an investment.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="IdesOfMarch01, post: 7515631, member: 39084"]A few years ago I collected 90 years of (yearly) raw data on the S&P, starting in 1927 before the Great Depression. I have since updated the data to include every year up to the end of 2020. The raw data I collected is simply the starting value of the S&P at the beginning of the year, plus the dividends paid that year. With this data you can calculate the yearly total return as well as the compounded annual return for any period. I also collected yearly inflation data as well, although this information varies slightly depending on the source you choose for the data. There is a wealth of information in the spreadsheet I created to analyze this data, and one of the more interesting bits is that there is no 20-year period (including the Great Depression and our recent Great Recession) during which the S&P's compounded annual return was not at least 2.37%. Further, for any 20-year period starting after 1932, the minimum 20-year compounded annual return is 5.47%; this minimum would be for the period 1999 - 2018. If you had invested $10K in the S&P index in the beginning of 2001 (and reinvested dividends), that $10K was worth almost $41,000 at the end of 2020 -- and much more in 2021. Inflation during that period was 49.4% so you would need $14,940 at the end of 2020 to purchase what you could buy for $10,000 in 2001 [corrected from 1999]. My conclusion is that if you want a long term investment, buy the S&P index fund. Collecting high-end ancient coins is an enjoyable hobby, not an investment.[/QUOTE]
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