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Message:: [QUOTE="Valentinian, post: 4169740, member: 44316"]The CDC site says today:[ATTACH=full]1074317[/ATTACH] So, the death rate is about 1 in a thousand for what we call "flu".  The death rate for covid-19 is uncertain, but the numbers quoted from China, etc. suggest more like 20 in a thousand. If it turns out to be as contagious as the flu, numbers like that suggest 20 times the deaths. Another thing not mentioned in the news so far is that the virus might mutate. The Black Death had more than one form. Wikipedia notes: "It is said that the plague takes three forms. In the first people suffer an infection of the lungs, which leads to breathing difficulties. Whoever has this corruption or contamination to any extent cannot escape but will die within two days. Another form ... in which boils erupt under the armpits, ... a third form in which people of both sexes are attacked in the groin." Any disease that is only a few months old is still evolving to find its own best way to propagate. Even if we understood the current form of the virus perfectly, it might not be the same in another few months. Here is a coin of Trebonianus Gallus, 251-253, that has been said to invoke APOLL[O] SALVTARI because of the plague. Foss, Roman Historical Coins, page 214, #7. [ATTACH=full]1074321[/ATTACH][/QUOTE]