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<p>[QUOTE="Lehigh96, post: 750147, member: 15309"]I should have been more clear. I know you love toned coins, but you have never agreed with the premiums that they drive. You are amongst the group of people that consider toning premiums a fad. I don't want to get into an argument about when the prices for toned coins started to skyrocket, but I think we can both agree that it was the early part of this decade. Prior to that time period, toning only generated small premiums within 1-2X bid price but multiples of bid were rare. My point is that just because you remember how things used to be does not automatically mean they will return to that. </p><p> </p><p>There were permanent changes in the market that have affected the market permanently. The most important aspect is online availability of coins and a phenomenal increase in digital photographic technology. It is rather easy to take an accurate photo of a coin an post it online. This puts toned coins center stage and creates a very competitive atmposhere to acquire these coins which are much more rare than their untoned counterparts. The internet isn't going anywhere, digital photographic technology will continue to improve, and I see no significant drop in the demand for toned coins. Your failure to recognize this permanent change in the market has you stuck in the 80's-90's (or even earlier) expecting the toned coin market to eventually settle back to the prices of those time periods. We have had this discussion before, but I insist that 7+ years is not a fad, it represents a stable market.</p><p> </p><p>In fact, the only real danger to the toned coin market IMO relates to a loss in demand as a result in decreased confidence in the ability of the TPG's to weed out AT coins. As the coin doctors get better, the TPG's must react to preserve consumer confidence. Barring this, I see no reason for the toned coin market to collapse as many (including yourself) predict. The economy will depress prices slightly especially for the more common material but the truly superlative (monster) coins will not lose much value IMO. You know as well as I do that the ratio of the premium is inversely proportional to the bid price of the coin. The lower the bid price, the higher the toning premium will be. These coins will suffer the most. This means that MS63* Morgans will be affected much more than MS65/66* Morgans.</p><p> </p><p>I can tell you Doug that I search the internet for hours every week looking for these coins and I do not see a dramatic reduction in prices. The whole purpose of this thread was to demonstrate that using an example that has sold 4 times in the last two years. It sold twice at auction and twice via private sale. Is it possible that the Heritage price with the substandard photo is the truest indicator of the value of the coin? Maybe, but I doubt it. You would have us believe that both I and another member of both this forum and the TCCS both overpaid for the coin and then the feeding frenzy on E-Bay further inflated value of the coin. It is true that I have overpaid for coins in the past and readily admit that. Buying toned coins that are obviously market graded and paying huge premiums is rather foolish, a lesson I learned the hard way. But this coin is not an MS63 in an MS65 holder, it has solid gem surfaces with a wholly unique toning pattern & color scheme. Isn't it more likely that with accurate photos, the true value of this coin is currently $350-$450.</p><p> </p><p>Furthermore, your characterization of toned coin photos is not accurate no matter how many toned coins you have seen. Most toned proofs must be turned to just the right angle for the color to show. This also happens with many iridescent toned mint state coins which is why you must search for that word when scouring toned coin catalog descriptions. However, bag toned Morgans show the color quite readily from just about every angle except straight on. You would have us believe that there is this very small window of an angle that you must hold the coin just to see the elusive color on the majority of coins. That is just not correct. Almost every coin appears dark straight on, but the moment they are tilted to any angle the colors become very evident.</p><p> </p><p>Now Doug, I know that you don't have an agenda. I also don't take personal offense to your opinion. However, many members of this forum hold your opinion in a higher regard than other opinions. Therefore, when I disagree with your opinion, I will disagree strenuously. Not to mention, this is the first real debate I have seen on this forum in a while and I love a good debate. Now feel free to let me have it.<img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie7" alt=":p" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" />[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Lehigh96, post: 750147, member: 15309"]I should have been more clear. I know you love toned coins, but you have never agreed with the premiums that they drive. You are amongst the group of people that consider toning premiums a fad. I don't want to get into an argument about when the prices for toned coins started to skyrocket, but I think we can both agree that it was the early part of this decade. Prior to that time period, toning only generated small premiums within 1-2X bid price but multiples of bid were rare. My point is that just because you remember how things used to be does not automatically mean they will return to that. There were permanent changes in the market that have affected the market permanently. The most important aspect is online availability of coins and a phenomenal increase in digital photographic technology. It is rather easy to take an accurate photo of a coin an post it online. This puts toned coins center stage and creates a very competitive atmposhere to acquire these coins which are much more rare than their untoned counterparts. The internet isn't going anywhere, digital photographic technology will continue to improve, and I see no significant drop in the demand for toned coins. Your failure to recognize this permanent change in the market has you stuck in the 80's-90's (or even earlier) expecting the toned coin market to eventually settle back to the prices of those time periods. We have had this discussion before, but I insist that 7+ years is not a fad, it represents a stable market. In fact, the only real danger to the toned coin market IMO relates to a loss in demand as a result in decreased confidence in the ability of the TPG's to weed out AT coins. As the coin doctors get better, the TPG's must react to preserve consumer confidence. Barring this, I see no reason for the toned coin market to collapse as many (including yourself) predict. The economy will depress prices slightly especially for the more common material but the truly superlative (monster) coins will not lose much value IMO. You know as well as I do that the ratio of the premium is inversely proportional to the bid price of the coin. The lower the bid price, the higher the toning premium will be. These coins will suffer the most. This means that MS63* Morgans will be affected much more than MS65/66* Morgans. I can tell you Doug that I search the internet for hours every week looking for these coins and I do not see a dramatic reduction in prices. The whole purpose of this thread was to demonstrate that using an example that has sold 4 times in the last two years. It sold twice at auction and twice via private sale. Is it possible that the Heritage price with the substandard photo is the truest indicator of the value of the coin? Maybe, but I doubt it. You would have us believe that both I and another member of both this forum and the TCCS both overpaid for the coin and then the feeding frenzy on E-Bay further inflated value of the coin. It is true that I have overpaid for coins in the past and readily admit that. Buying toned coins that are obviously market graded and paying huge premiums is rather foolish, a lesson I learned the hard way. But this coin is not an MS63 in an MS65 holder, it has solid gem surfaces with a wholly unique toning pattern & color scheme. Isn't it more likely that with accurate photos, the true value of this coin is currently $350-$450. Furthermore, your characterization of toned coin photos is not accurate no matter how many toned coins you have seen. Most toned proofs must be turned to just the right angle for the color to show. This also happens with many iridescent toned mint state coins which is why you must search for that word when scouring toned coin catalog descriptions. However, bag toned Morgans show the color quite readily from just about every angle except straight on. You would have us believe that there is this very small window of an angle that you must hold the coin just to see the elusive color on the majority of coins. That is just not correct. Almost every coin appears dark straight on, but the moment they are tilted to any angle the colors become very evident. Now Doug, I know that you don't have an agenda. I also don't take personal offense to your opinion. However, many members of this forum hold your opinion in a higher regard than other opinions. Therefore, when I disagree with your opinion, I will disagree strenuously. Not to mention, this is the first real debate I have seen on this forum in a while and I love a good debate. Now feel free to let me have it.:p[/QUOTE]
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