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<p>[QUOTE="Heliodromus, post: 8064506, member: 120820"]It's hard to imagine that these early epidemics would not have had tremendous societal impact. Not just in the huge percentages of the population killed, but also in demographic shifts and other hard to predict types of disruption.</p><p><br /></p><p>Prior to the Justinian Plague of 541-549 AD, there had been the Antonine Plague (likely Smallpox) of 166-180 AD, followed by the Plague of Cyprian (Smallpox again?) of 251-270 AD. Death estimates for the Antonine Plague vary from 10% to 50% of the population (from 65M before to 40M after), with an estimated 2000/day dead in the city of Rome alone at the peak, with this epidemic lasting for around 15 years. The Plague of Cyprian seems to have lasted even longer, around 20 years, possibly even more severe, killing up to 5000/day in Rome. Finally, the Plague of Justinian (Bubonic plague this time) is recorded by Procopius as killing 10,000/day in Constantinople, although modern historians think a figure of 5000/day is probably closer to the truth. Estimates vary, ranging up to 50% of the population dead all told.</p><p><br /></p><p>There's really nothing in modern experience that remotely compares.</p><p><br /></p><p>It's been suggested that one effect of these epidemics was to at least help accelerate the rise of Christianity as a percentage of the population, due to better survival rates. If I recall correctly, one source for this is Rodney Stark's "The Rise of Christianity". Apparently it's been shown that even basic nursing/care, which was more prevalent in the Christian community, such as keeping the sick warm and well-fed can help survival rates significantly, and over the course of these 10-20 year epidemics, this had a significant impact. One could imagine it may have had a psychological impact too, with the roman gods having failed to protect the empire, but the Christians faring relatively better.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Heliodromus, post: 8064506, member: 120820"]It's hard to imagine that these early epidemics would not have had tremendous societal impact. Not just in the huge percentages of the population killed, but also in demographic shifts and other hard to predict types of disruption. Prior to the Justinian Plague of 541-549 AD, there had been the Antonine Plague (likely Smallpox) of 166-180 AD, followed by the Plague of Cyprian (Smallpox again?) of 251-270 AD. Death estimates for the Antonine Plague vary from 10% to 50% of the population (from 65M before to 40M after), with an estimated 2000/day dead in the city of Rome alone at the peak, with this epidemic lasting for around 15 years. The Plague of Cyprian seems to have lasted even longer, around 20 years, possibly even more severe, killing up to 5000/day in Rome. Finally, the Plague of Justinian (Bubonic plague this time) is recorded by Procopius as killing 10,000/day in Constantinople, although modern historians think a figure of 5000/day is probably closer to the truth. Estimates vary, ranging up to 50% of the population dead all told. There's really nothing in modern experience that remotely compares. It's been suggested that one effect of these epidemics was to at least help accelerate the rise of Christianity as a percentage of the population, due to better survival rates. If I recall correctly, one source for this is Rodney Stark's "The Rise of Christianity". Apparently it's been shown that even basic nursing/care, which was more prevalent in the Christian community, such as keeping the sick warm and well-fed can help survival rates significantly, and over the course of these 10-20 year epidemics, this had a significant impact. One could imagine it may have had a psychological impact too, with the roman gods having failed to protect the empire, but the Christians faring relatively better.[/QUOTE]
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