The FUN Show in Orlando. Jan. 5th-8th

Which coins are 3x ? Lower-priced stuff, right ?

 

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I think there are lots of differences.

In 1979-80, you still had the shocks of earlier in the decade playing out: oil shocks....free-floating (falling !) currencies....inflation....etc. PM's skyrocketed 10-fold during the decade and then DOUBLED again in 6 months into the bubble peak of early-1980. Everything got dragged up with PM's. After the bubble burst, only commemoratives soared during the 1980's.

Today, you are coming off a decade of falling prices as indicated by the PCGS 300 Index...we "burned off" alot of the bubble excess in that time so alot of the "fluff" was out of the coins that were pricey from previous rises/bubbles....you also had a demographic imbalance with lots of older collectors selling and not being replaced by young buyers.

As GDJMSP has noted, it looks like U.S. coins bottomed with the pandemic (see, PCGS 3000 Index). Time will tell if it is the beginning of a new bull market or a very powerful countertrend rally. We know that with people at home...and with lots of stimulus and pandemic $$$...lots of stuff rose bigtime. The stuff that went up was the AFFORDABLE stuff: Morgan SDs under $500 and especially under $200....Small Denomination coins costing under $100....medium-grade currency like Large Denomination Bills ($500, $1,000, etc.).

 

The really expensive stuff has gone up too. PCGS Coin Facts says my 1796 No Stars Quarter Eagle is worth $1.5 million. Yea right. But it is higher than it was when I bought it. The same is true for the other expensive items I have.

 

Well, it depends on your definition of what "lower-priced" stuff is. Yes, I mainly collect lower-priced stuff, inferred by the way I'm usually treated by coin dealers.

Last year CNG sent out a letter to people stating that prices on Ancient coins were in a word, astonishing. And trying to buy pieces at auction was an exercise in futility.

In fact last year I bid on a silver cistophorus of Augustus. Normally these pieces sell for a couple K but the specimen I attempted to buy went for an "astonishing" 78 or $80,000.

I just posted a comment on CoinTalk, showing my photo of a nice unc 1859 Peruvian transitional 50 cents I acquired at $65. Barberian replied that at a recent Stack's sale a similar (and possibly less nice specimen) sold for $900!
Post your SEATED coins.

One interesting piece I've always been looking at is a nice 1921 Peace dollar. I've bought many Peace dollars over the years and even got 3 in circulation at a bank in Philly but never had a '21 higher relief. Not even looking for the well-struck up fully high relief, but just the typical 1921 strike. All of a sudden they've shot up greatly in price.
As I've said, wonderful news for dealers as they can now flip $3,000 coins rather than $600 coins, but it makes it tougher on collectors hoping to build collections.

I think there is a general feeling that currently, it's a strong market. In non-US and Ancients tho, it's insane. I don't even want to get into trying to buy mint-state Polish talers...

 

Clearly the wrong dealer if he didn't know if he had a $10k to $20k coin in his inventory. I saw an extremely nice AU 39 ND half a couple of FUN shows back and the dealer wanted $4500 for it. I now regret not buying it since it was so nice it was worth every penny. But I just wasn't prepared for the price range at that time.

At a big show, it's important to target the dealers who are likely to have what you're after. After exhausting those likely sources, the remainder of your time (and energy) can be spent scouring less likely sources.

 

I'll be there all three days. Probably going to attend the LSCC dinner Thursday night. Will also be spending time attending the Central Florida Coin Club table when not scouring the bourse and attending some of the talks.

The weather is likely to be better than that in Idaho.

 

It had to be better than this one.



I bought this one raw years ago from JJ Teaparty. We called it EF-45, which is accurate. NGC called it AU-58!

 

It was! I don't remember the exact grade but it was probably 58. But it was really PQ. Looking back on it I don't know why it wasn't a slider up to 62.

OTOH, I know a lot more now than I did then so I may be thinking of it like I think of my high school girlfriends - rosier in memory than actuality.

 

At least it's not... "both were born in 1839".


Actually my comments on the dealer not knowing if he had an unc 1839 ND half were somewhat exaggerated. At the time I wasn't asking specifically for that coin but for other nice coinage. I really can't bring a wanted list to a show as I collect stuff from Ancients, early Independent era Latin American (1810-1860), Polish, and will even be lured-in by a taler with the correct bait.

On the 1839 ND halves, it appears that these have at least doubled in price since the beginning of covid when an attractive nice AU-58 {maybe as nice as Publius2's gf?} sold for ~$2,800. In early 2022, a very unimpressive NGC-55 sold for nearly $5,800.

In fact looking thru Heritage's PR, it seems that all the seated half-dollars are
1) selling for a lot more $ these days
2) being a lot more loosely graded by the slabbing companies

 

I plan to be there. A friend group has rented a condo about 25 minutes away from the convention center and we share a rental car. Cheaper that way.

 

I had originally planned to be at the Show. However, My wife and I had to return to Germany from South West Florida after getting our home fixed up after hurricane Ian (no major issues, thank God).
It would have been great to finally get to meet some of you.

 

The price range for the stuff that flew up during Covid -- U.S. coinage -- was anything from $50 - $500, give-or-take, pre-Covid prices. That's why aside from the price of gold I didn't see gold coins like Saints move. It was lower-priced stuff that folks could spend their stimulus and working checks on. Coins costing $2,000 and up wasn't the target.

The same folks buying 7 or 12 or 30 shares of Gamestop were the ones buying lower-priced coins and currency and driving up the prices.

Think RobinHood types.

 

The 1839 No Drapery half dollar is a specialized coin. I would say that most type collectors ignore it.

Among the No Drapery type coins, the half dollar is the least distinctive. The additional piece of cloth, that is the most distinctive aspect of the With Drapery type, is very small in the half dollar design. Still the coin was also issued for only a part of a year, with a small mintage. Therefore it doesn’t take much demand to drive up the price.

 

TC, let me ask you: an MS-65 common Saint probably cost about $500 in 1999/2000 when gold was about $325. About a 50% premium.

Today, the same coin costs a retail buyer about $2,200 when gold is about $1,800 or about a 20-25% premium.

Is the ABSOLUTE level above gold (2022) better for a dealer than the higher PERCENTAGE level above gold (1999-2000) ? Yes new coins cost you more...but you charge more and while the % is not as high the total $$$ are more.

Maybe you can't hold as much inventory but what you do hold I would think is more profitable, no ?

 

Fantastic response, TC, learned alot.

 

Probably correct but it has a number of other things going for it which is why I like the piece.

I am simply more attracted to the early Liberty Seateds, Although not successful my bidding has generally been trying to acquire one of these as well as a No Stars Seated Dime or half Dime. Also a type-1 Seated dollar.

I've never even focused on the type 3 or 5 (Arrows at date) 1854-55, 1873-74 halves. Many years ago (ca, 1999 or 2000) I did buy on approval (not auction) a ms-63 Arrows and Rays (1853) half from Heritage but returned it as I didn't like it's looks. These coins are much cheaper than the 1839 No Drapery.

Early on I did have the opportunity to buy many high end pieces from a nearly complete date set of seated halves. I think a more prominent customer got 1st pick as there were no Arrows coins or super rarities. I did get a beautiful 1839 With Drapery tho and have always wanted the matching piece.

Checking recent PR on Heritage I see that AU 1839 ND halves have roughly doubled in price since Covid. Prices for more common Seated halves in ms seem to be extremely high right now.

Were I at a coin show and a dealer was to offer me an attractive 1853 Half, I might bite. Same with the 37 No Stars (dimes and half-dimes).

Not sure you missed much. Not too long ago these were worth half of this amount. Granted inflation but the market has to be limited for circulated Seated Coins at the $5,000 level. MS I can understand tho.

 

For those who are not familiar with the No Drapery and Drapery type coins, here is why I say that the half dollar No Drapery type is not that distinctive from the With Drapery type.

The drapery is a piece of cloth that hangs from Ms. Liberty's arm which is holding the staff. The 1839 is the No Drapery coin, and the 1846 is the With Drapery piece.



The Drapery is a bit more noticeable on the quarter.



And it is much more noticeable on the dime.

 

Thank you @johnmilton that was incredibly helpful. And your assessment of the $.50 being least noticeable and the $.25 a bit easier to notice and the $.10 being virtually obvious was spot on. Your side by side was elementary my dear Watson and that's just what I needed. A+ on that lesson, Teach.