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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;GDJMSP, post: 660358, member: 112&quot;]It&#039;s kind of hard to miss. Do you ever read any of the coin magazines ? Apparently not, or you would see all of the articles, auction reports, even the ads, with lower prices. Even the guys who write the <i>Coin Values</i> column in <i>Coin World</i> and the <i>Coin Market</i> column in <i>Numismatic News</i>, have been talking about how weak the market is and how much prices are dropping for 6 months now. And these 2 guys are the biggest bulls there are in the coin market. It has to get really bad before either of them even starts talking about prices dropping.</p><p><br /></p><p>Then of course you can read all the reports from CT members who have been going to the shows, both large and small, where they talk about how slow it has been, how few people have been attending the shows and how prices have been dropping.</p><p><br /></p><p>Then you could access all of the coin news and market reports found on-line like those written by Laura Sperber of Legend Coins. She&#039;s been talking about the market downturn as long as I have - over a year now. And there are plenty of other similar reports.</p><p><br /></p><p>You can also check the coin indexes. What does this look like to you - sure doesn&#039;t look like an upwards trend, or even a stable trend to me. This is the market as a whole.</p><p><br /></p><p><img src="http://www.pcgs.com/images/graphs/index2graph.gif" class="bbCodeImage wysiwygImage" alt="" unselectable="on" /></p><p><br /></p><p>This is the market for MS gold - </p><p><br /></p><p><img src="http://www.pcgs.com/images/graphs/msgold2graph.gif" class="bbCodeImage wysiwygImage" alt="" unselectable="on" /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>This is the Mint State type coin index - </p><p><br /></p><p><img src="http://www.pcgs.com/images/graphs/mstype2graph.gif" class="bbCodeImage wysiwygImage" alt="" unselectable="on" /></p><p><br /></p><p>This is the Morgan and Peace dollar index - </p><p><br /></p><p><img src="http://www.pcgs.com/images/graphs/mpeace2graph.gif" class="bbCodeImage wysiwygImage" alt="" unselectable="on" /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>This is the Key Dates and Rarities index - </p><p><br /></p><p><img src="http://www.pcgs.com/images/graphs/keys2graph.gif" class="bbCodeImage wysiwygImage" alt="" unselectable="on" /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Now with all due respect, do any of those look to have an upward trend to you ? And if you don&#039;t call that prices dropping - what would you call it ?</p><p><br /></p><p>The only thing I can tell you guys who say they don&#039;t see the downturn is that you either need to get out more, start reading more, or find differnt places to buy.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp; </p><p>&nbsp; </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>I sure have. Back in 2000 I started about the market showing signs of moving upwards. By 2001 I was writing about and telling everyone to start buying pretty much everything, in particular gold. I bought gold at $250. Now you haven&#039;t knowm me for that long, but there are plenty here who have. And I&#039;ll bet they can remember quite well when I was bullish on the market.</p><p><br /></p><p>They can also probably remember when I said that the Morgan and Peace dollar market was peaking back in 2004 and dropped like a hot rock until 2007. You cna find those predictions right here on this forum if you care to take the time to look. Here&#039;s a picture of what happened - </p><p><br /></p><p><img src="http://www.pcgs.com/images/graphs/mpeace10graph.gif" class="bbCodeImage wysiwygImage" alt="" unselectable="on" /></p><p><br /></p><p>A good time to buy in my opinion is when things start to settle down. We will probably have what is known is a &quot;dead cat bounce&quot; this fall and winter. The market will turn upwards a little, but it won&#039;t last long and it will continue its donward slide is my prediction. Things will probably stabalize in a year, maybe 2, and it might even last 10 years but I doubt it. Those indexes I posted will show the when, the buy time. So will reports in the coin mags and auction results. Buying in a dropping market is as they say - like trying to catch a falling knife. You may catch the knife, but you are almost certainly going to get cut in the process. Wait for stability, that&#039;s when to buy and not before.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>That is all very true. But don&#039;t forget that history shows us that the Great Depression was a boom time for time for the coin collecting hobby. Prices started moving upwards - not down. Don&#039;t ask me why, I can&#039;t explain it. All I know is that what the record shows.</p><p><br /></p><p>Now I get requests from various people all the time asking my advice on a particular coin or if they should buy or wait. The requests can range from common every day stuff to the very expensive stuff. There are even several people who will rarely buy any coin without asking my opinion first. You can ask them what my track record is - if they wish to volunteer the info that is. I keep who they are and what they buy private myself.</p><p><br /></p><p>But not long ago a member here on Coin Talk asked me about buying a somewhat expensive coin. It was the beginninmg of June this year. Here is portion of my response to him - </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Now granted, those are high dollar coins. But if that isn&#039;t a 50% drop then I&#039;d like to know what is. I used those examples because they were readily available in <i>Coin World</i> in one of their auction reports. Even inexpensive stuff is doing the same thing if you care to take the time to look it up for yourself.</p><p><br /></p><p>Do you think I just make this stuff up or something ? The market is dropping folks, and dropping big time. It&#039;s all there to see, all ya have to do is look.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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