State of the Market

Discussion in 'Ancient Coins' started by Ken Dorney, May 28, 2019.

  1. Ken Dorney

    Ken Dorney Yea, I'm Cool That Way...

    I am sure many of you got this same e-mail and I have seen it quoted a few times in random posts. I think though that it deserves its own thread. Just what is the 'state of the market'? It entirely depends on who you are. The buyer? The seller? A speculator? Honestly I think the truth is smack dab in the middle of all these things. The market is far more elaborate and delicate than many might consider. I have my opinions as a dealer and as a collector and those will come at some point. But I am more interested in what people have to say. Often reality does not match expectations so I am keen to hear what people might contribute.

    Begin original e-mail:
    ===============================================

    MARKET REPORT:


    Roman Gold a Buying Opportunity?
    By Michael Gasvoda


    Our goal with the CNG Market Report is to review the market on a regular basis and offer observations and recommendations to our clientele based on current trends. We intend to cover all fields within CNG’s purview: Ancient Greek, Roman, and Byzantine coins, Medieval European and Near Eastern coins, and British coins of all eras.

    [​IMG]
    CNG 111, lot 64
    Leontini Tetradrachm Pedigreed to 1882
    Ancient Greek Coins:
    This market continues to be very strong due to the presence of several high-end buyers who have recently entered the field. Coins with solid provenances are bringing record prices. This is even true for coins that are not necessarily the finest known for their respective types. A good VF coin with a provenance going back 100 years to important collections is likely to sell for more than an EF coin of the same type, but without a long history of ownership. Now is truly a great time to consider bringing provenance coins to the market. In fact, many great coins and collections are coming to auction this year.

    [​IMG]
    CNG 111, lot 80
    Carthage Gold Stater


    Interestingly, we see potential buying opportunities here as well. When great collections are brought to market they invariably include some coins of slightly lower quality or rarity than the rest of the group that in any other sale would be headliners, but in comparison seem lackluster. Because of the rush to sell in a strong market, we see plenty of truly impressive coins appearing in numbers not usually seen. With only so much money to be spent at any given time, some of these coins are bound to sell at levels below their true market value. In many cases, CNG is a buyer of this material, even if it is coming to the market via the auction route. We urge our customers to dive in and not sit on the sidelines during this great run on Greek coin prices. Diligently study the coins and bid to levels you are comfortable with. In a nutshell, there are tremendous opportunities for both buyers and sellers!

    [​IMG]
    CNG 111, lot 686
    Trajan Aureus
    Ancient Roman Coins:
    In many ways, the state of Roman gold market is the opposite of the Greek. There are so few high-quality coins on offer and the customer base is always craving something good. For many years, Roman gold was seen as a safe haven among overseas collector/investors, while other markets roiled. This fervor seems to have cooled recently as other financial markets stabilized and foreign governments clamped down on outside exchange and investment. Thus Roman gold continues to be off from the market highs of 2010-2015. This is particularly true for the more common types. It seems the big money buyers are all chasing Greek right now.



    Is this a Roman gold buying opportunity? We believe so. Expect to see prices rebound in this market over the next few years. Whatever the market might suggest at a given point, Roman gold is, on the whole, beautiful, finely crafted, historic, and rare. Roman history remains widely popular and we expect collectors of means to gravitate back to this field once they realize how affordable it has become, relative to five or six years ago.

    Roman silver coins continue to hit record levels. This is the heart of the collector market and attractive coins are always in demand. Buying will be competitive and selling will be enjoyable, particularly for coins of the Republic, truly a collector-dominated market with many true connoisseurs who appreciate the artistry and history these coins offer. We have recently had the privilege of bringing two great Republican collections to market: the Andrew McCabe Collection, which is ongoing, and the Alan Harlan Collection. Both brought strong prices. We expect it will continue to be very easy to move high-quality Republican silver, even at higher prices. As always, the higher the grade the better. But, with Roman silver, one must always consider the style and artistry. Unlike gold, silver coins were issued in large quantities, with artistic renderings ranging from vibrant and masterful to amateurish and flat. Have patience – the artistic coins are out there. Now is an ideal time to consign top-notch Roman silver of either the Republican or Imperial periods.

    Roman bronzes are also a bit soft, particularly for better middle bronzes and sesterii. There are some real bargains in this area and we strongly recommend these coins at current levels. Great bronzes are probably the most difficult of all for Roman coinage. They simply do not show up in high grade as often as silver and gold.

    Medieval Coins:The collector-dominated medieval coin market is truly enjoyable. It’s a pleasure to compete with passionate long-term bidders, versus the investors who flit in and out of the ancient coin market. This area tends to be more of interest to academic collectors. For them, the greatest challenge is always to find coins to add to their collections. Consignments of medieval are always welcome.

    British Coins:This market has been stirred lately by a new influx of relatively young, mostly American collectors with the means to acquire true rarities. Consequently, prices are moving up, in some cases sharply. This applies to hammered, milled, and struck coins from the Anglo-Saxon era up through the House of Hannover. Demand is strong for hammered pennies in exceptional condition, for silver crowns from the reign of Edward VI forward, and for any larger gold denominations in exceptional condition.
     
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  3. Roman Collector

    Roman Collector Well-Known Member

    I posted these comments about the Roman coin market elsewhere, but they belong here, too.

    One thing I have noticed over the past 12 years or so is that the prices of Roman provincials have gone through the roof. They used to be the ugly stepsister of the ancient coin collecting hobby and were largely ignored by condition cranks and those put off by their (often) naive artwork. Not anymore. At the mid-level European auction houses, such as Naumann, Auctiones GmbH, Leu, and such, they bring strong competition, with hammer prices bringing triple what they would have ten years ago.

    For F-VF Roman imperial silver, I haven't seen prices change much, actually, with many common denarii from the Flavian - Severan period going for $60-100 in VF. Similarly, debased antoniniani from the mid-third-century often go for even lower than this. You could amass a rather extensive Philip, Decius, Gallus or Volusian collection for less than $60 a coin and be proud of any of them.

    The supply of high-grade LRB bronze material remains high and there has been an influx of previously "scarce" coins (Vetranio, for example) and some coins have come down in price while others seem to be keeping level with inflation. If you bought Constantinian-era coins in the 1990s and want to sell today, you'll be disappointed.

    The Gallic and British usurpers still have strong interest from specialist collectors, but the hammer prices of common Postumous, Tetricus I & II, and Victorinus coins aren't shocking and most can be had for less than $75, mostly because they aren't "slab material."

    Roman middle bronzes, particularly of the Flavian - Antonine period, are very stagnant and in low demand, particularly if the coins have circulation wear, rough surfaces, are off-center, or weakly struck in spots. Antonine sestertii circulated for decades and are rare in high grades -- these bring astonishingly high prices at auction while F-VF examples bring astonishing low prices. This has led to an unfortunate epidemic of tooling, smoothing and repatination, even of common varieties.

    That's my take on the Roman coin market.
     
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  4. Suarez

    Suarez Well-Known Member

    Ancient Roman Coins:In many ways, the state of Roman gold market is the opposite of the Greek. There are so few high-quality coins on offer...

    You can take this with a cup of salt. Here's the number of aurei offered and prices realized in the last few years. There really isn't a significant change. High end coins are a market all their own, and that market is remarkably stable.

    2010 842 $13,296.00
    2011 929 $16,058.00
    2012 1301 $15,857.00
    2013 1178 $17,791.00
    2014 1388 $17,246.00
    2015 1124 $15,482.00
    2016 913 $15,113.00

    Rasiel
     
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  5. Suarez

    Suarez Well-Known Member

    One thing I have noticed over the past 12 years or so is that the prices of Roman provincials have gone through the roof.

    Nope, sorry. Average price realized, 12 year range 2005-2017 (last reliable year I have data for)

    2005 $329.00
    2006 $371.00
    2007 $413.00
    2008 $474.00
    2009 $370.00
    2010 $379.00
    2011 $402.00
    2012 $480.00
    2013 $423.00
    2014 $420.00
    2015 $393.00
    2016 $280.00
    2017 $307.00
     
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  6. Volodya

    Volodya Junior Member

    Are you able to break out the numbers with Roman Egypt excluded?
     
  7. Theodosius

    Theodosius Fine Style Seeker

    What Roman Provincial has an average price of $300?

    They must be pretty nice ones...
     
  8. Sallent

    Sallent Live long and prosper

    Late Roman coins from Alexandria are still pretty cheap. The 1st and 2nd century ones may be up, but you can find a lot from the 3rd century for cheap, especially the mid-3rd century through the end of the mint.
     
  9. Ken Dorney

    Ken Dorney Yea, I'm Cool That Way...

    Again, numbers say what one wants. I did a very quick search for 'aureus' and deleted out all fourees and all those weird lots which were not actually what we were looking for. I found 69 lots (just the first page, I got bored after that I admit). Average hammer for 2018 was $3,442, quite a bit less than the $15,000 you come up with. What does one make of those numbers? There is the 'artificial' market, and there is the 'real' market.
     
  10. Ken Dorney

    Ken Dorney Yea, I'm Cool That Way...

    None. Most are around $150 (unscientifically but with over 30 years experience that is my opinion). When someone actually buys coins on a regular basis they will know what they sell for.
     
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  11. Theodosius

    Theodosius Fine Style Seeker

    Maybe if all you are counting is Triton sales the prices could be that high...
     
  12. Terence Cheesman

    Terence Cheesman Well-Known Member

    I can only comment on coins that I try to collect.
    Greek. I think the prices of nice coins that command high prices is going up. This is due I think because the number of coins available for sale is rather limited. Thus a handful of wealthy collectors can influence prices much more so than in other areas of ancient coins. Coins that command lower prices or of lesser quality prices are either stagnant or going down.
    Roman. Because this market is much larger, I think the percentage of coins that are increasing in value is smaller than the Greek which means that the numbers of coins which are either stagnant or going down is larger.
     
  13. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    Well, not None really. Depends on how small you define a market, right? What is the average price of a founding of Carthage bronze? I averaged $300 for the two I have. Include higher grade or rare drachms of Alexandria and prices can go crazy high. Exclude such things and Cleo VII, and "average" price I would say around $100.

    Not really disagreeing sir, just saying the average could be higher if truly including stuff like zodiac drachms, Antinuous, etc. that most people do not think of with the generic term of Roman provincial.
     
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  14. pprp

    pprp Well-Known Member

    True, look at their auction which closes in a while today;there is a 3-letter bidder handle which seems to be a calling station.

    While I can confirm that I was several times the underbidder to CNG who then sold in their shop or auctions with a 30-50% profit margin, I fail to see which great collections and impressive Greek coins in masses they mean...Apart from that Athenean hoard which was mixed with coins from aspendos/cyprus/soloi, I haven't noticed any other significant flow of coins...
     
  15. Johnnie Black

    Johnnie Black Neither Gentleman Nor Scholar

    I wish these reports would detail more of the “soft spots” of the market. Those will enable my buying opportunities and my budget will thank them.
     
  16. Milesofwho

    Milesofwho Omnivorous collector

    What about the Byzantine market? It may not serve any practical purpose to me, but the opinions on the other markets were interesting to read about.
     
    Paul M. likes this.
  17. Sallent

    Sallent Live long and prosper

    In the last four years that I've been collecting ancients, I haven't really seen any spike in bronze Byzantine coins, and the common gold coins pretty much go up and down depending on the price of gold.... much like bullion.

    A few of the truly rare coins have gone up in price, such as the coins from the last emperor. But the same holds true for all the other real rarities in the ancients field. To me the common stuff seems stagnant around all categories of the hobby.
     
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  18. ancient coin hunter

    ancient coin hunter 3rd Century Usurper

    It's interesting that the common AR antoniniani have not really gone up in price at auction. I recall a Gordian III being the first coin I ever purchased in 1980 for $30, it was a MARTEM PROPVGNATOREM type. If I bought it today it might be $60 in VF condition, so not really a good investment if you want to look at it that way.

    But at the top of the scale the prices keep going up. Lots of wealthy new collectors getting into the hobby and driving up the prices. Some folks have a lot of cash lying around (or laundered) money and want to invest in alternative assets I guess.
     
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  19. Ken Dorney

    Ken Dorney Yea, I'm Cool That Way...

    I've beaten Clio on coins before and got them cheaply, so its hard to say how big an impact these wealthy collectors really have in any segment of the market. It can just depend on what they choose to collect. There have always been a few billionaires present and active at most points in time the last few decades. They come and go. There will always be someone out there who has the ability to pay more than the rest of us.

    I agree with this. It really depends on what you definitions are and what you choose to include as your data. If one removes top end coins out of the general mix, the numbers go way down.

    My take on the market:

    Greek coins in general are soft, especially so for anything less than EF, but then that can be said for all categories.

    Roman Republican has been hot for quite a while. Average prices seem to have gone up quite a bit even for lesser quality coins, with most starting $75 for F-aVF, $150 for good VF.

    Roman Imperial. Too many sub categories to give a straight answer. 1st Century is always hot and increasing. Prices in general always seem to decrease with the centuries, ending with Byzantine as the cheapest and least desirable.

    Byzantine. Always stagnant overall with the exception of gold being as Oz mentioned as a simple bullion type coin.

    In general, I would say that the ancients market as a whole is strong. Is it growing? Yes, I think it is. For a long time now. And I think it will only grow more as more modern collectors migrate over to our 'dark side'. It is easy to notice that the best quality coins are always the strongest, lesser qualities the weakest.
     
  20. pprp

    pprp Well-Known Member

    Clio= 4 letters....I was talking about bidder "bub". Handle "Clio" was not very active this time. He probably changed into "Larissa" or maybe we got another of the same type...
     
  21. Sallent

    Sallent Live long and prosper

    @Ken Dorney I definitely do not mind the Greek market being soft. Over the last few months I've been able to pick some extremely rare Greek fractional silver for just a few hundred bucks per coin (around $200 a piece). Had these been Roman Republic, I would have probably had to pay around $850 or more a piece because of the rarity factor.

    My favorite is this extremely rare variety from Abacaenum. Overall, only 32 have come up for auction in the last 15 years that I've been able to find (including several instances of the same coin being auctioned twice or more during that period). That's also including all variations, though my specimen seems to be one of the rarer ones of the different varieties, only coming up for auction a handful of times. Vcois only has two on sale right now...real dogs though so I wouldn't bother.

    86584q00 (1).jpg

    AR litra
    Abacaenum (Tripi, Sicily) 430-420 BCE
    weight 0.857g, maximum diameter 12.6mm
    obverse: laureate bearded male head right; reverse: boar or sow standing right, acorn in the lower right field, ABAK/AINI, starting in exergue, ending retrograde above, linear border; very rare
    SNG ANS 897 (same dies); HGC 2 10 corr. (R2, same dies); Weber 1169; SNG Sicily p. 1, 2 var. (ABA/KAIN); SNG Fitz 883 var. (same)

    Now is the time to shop for rarer fractional Greeks, while no one else cares much for them.
     
    Last edited: May 30, 2019
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