State of the ancient coin market

Discussion in 'Ancient Coins' started by dougsmit, Jun 26, 2013.

  1. dougsmit

    dougsmit Member

    I am worried. I have bought more coins this month than my usual degree of cheapness would suggest should be expected. Most notably, the prices realized from yesterday's Frank Robinson sale were posted and I won seven coins including some at considerable price reductions. I only bid on 12 lots and winning 7 is not at all like me.You will be forced to look at them when they arrive. His unsold lot list was larger than usual and included some coins I would buy were it not for the fact that the seven coins bill places me in poverty for a few weeks. Of course there were a few coins in the sale that went for double what I expected (which one of you was that???). I bought three other coin (eBay) this week. Either I went bid crazy or the market softened up a bit in the last few months. Perhaps the hot weather has made people go out and buy boats rather than coins. Has anyone else had similar experiences? Is it the economy, the weather or just a silly old man throwing around cash he should have spent on tacos?

    Not the best example but the only one that has actually arrived is the Pantikapion AE17 won Monday on eBay for $13 postpaid and delivered from California to Virginia on Wednesday. Decent coin; great service.

    Software won't accept photo now so I'll try later.
     
  2. Avatar

    Guest User Guest



    to hide this ad.
  3. maridvnvm

    maridvnvm Well-Known Member

    I have had a different feel recently. I have not been able to spend my whole budget over the past six months and have been regularly outbid on almost everything I have been chasing after even when I have increased my bidding above my usual levels. Perhaps I am just looking at the wrong things in the wrong places.
     
  4. stevex6

    stevex6 Random Mayhem

    Well, in "my" case, I'm pretty sure that a huge CNG-auction kinda depletes everybody's cash, so the following few CNG mini-auctions don't have as much action (everybody is still licking their wounds) ... man, I must try and remember that (avoid the biggees and then dominate on the after-math!!)

    => ummm, but I admit that I am still flopping-around in a pretty small pond ...

    I'm just sayin'
     
  5. Mat

    Mat Ancient Coincoholic

    I won my first ebay coin this past sunday for what I consider a decent price. Its on its way but it was for an emperor I needed. Everything else though still seems to be going high. I havent seen any softness in ancients at all.

    Maybe your just on a hotstreak Doug. Sometimes I get that way. Win alot then go months with nothing.
     
  6. Jwt708

    Jwt708 Well-Known Member

    Oh no! ;)
     
  7. Bing

    Bing Illegitimi non carborundum Supporter

    I have had similar experiences here of late and was going to ask just the opposite of Doug's question. I WAS going to ask if anyone else was experiencing higher than usual prices.
     
  8. Mat

    Mat Ancient Coincoholic

    Overall yes.
     
  9. Ardatirion

    Ardatirion Où est mon poisson

    I get to see the market from a different perspective than most here. From where I stand, it seems that rarities and true high-quality coins are still going strong. But the bottom rung has stalled a bit - common and mid-grade coins just are not doing well.
     
  10. chrsmat71

    chrsmat71 I LIKE TURTLES!

    i just spent a wad of saved up cash on some byzantines, mid range stuff (or in chrsmat71 speak..."showcase pieces")....and paid about what i expected on ebay auctions.

    there was one that did get away and it went for WAY more than i expected, someone with deeper pockets just wanted it ...still haunts me...i'll never forget you 40 mm justinian follis:so-sad:
     
  11. Ripley

    Ripley Senior Member

    I suspect with the current drop in precious metals prices. Folks may be buying silver, gold and plat instead of ancients. That is what I have been doing lately anyway. :rolleyes:
     
  12. dougsmit

    dougsmit Member

    I believe this is the correct answer. I don't buy 'true high-quality' although I see an awful lot of low end coins masquerading as such in high end sales. I still don't see a lot of cash value going to rarities since a common reverse EF seems to beat out a rare F-VF most of the time. Popular types still beat both grade and rarity way too often.
     
  13. randygeki

    randygeki Coin Collector

    I've definitely has missed a few nice deals thinking they'd go for higher prices
     
  14. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    I am both I suppose. Some regular coins as I describe them have gone crazy high. OTOH, I have been able to buy some truly scarce medieval Thai items for less than usual, as well as some ancients. I simply chalk it up to being summer. In the summer people are still licking their wounds from spring auctions, and are on vacation and having their families spending all of their coin money. Quality usually still does well, but middle of the road coins take a hit. High end coins are usually bought with money that a summer vacation is not going to affect, but middle of the road collector coins are by and large purchased by family men, who have other obligations in the summer.

    For the past 15 years I have usually seen kind of squirrelly pricing in the summer.
     
  15. IdesOfMarch01

    IdesOfMarch01 Well-Known Member

    When I first started collecting ancient coins about five years ago, I noted that more than one source warned that rarity does not, in itself, determine prices. The usual economic forces of supply and demand largely determine prices. The obvious question is, "What determines demand?"

    Doug's observation about a coin's condition (e.g., EF rather than VF) being valued more highly than rarity (viz., unusual reverse types vs. common reverse types) seems fairly accurate, across all strata of pricing. Let's face it -- EF coins have more initial eye appeal than F or VF coins. If a collector has a choice between, say, a Caligula bronze with a common reverse in EF vs. a similar bronze in VF with a rarer reverse, that collector will almost always choose the former rather than the latter, unless there is a mitigating factor (such as needing to complete a set of reverses for a certain coin). It's completely understandable that obverse portraits in great condition will increase a coin's price, even if the reverse is fairly common.

    In addition, certain collectors will seek common coins (such as the Tiberius "tribute penny", as discussed in another thread on this site) for reasons that are purely historical rather than condition- or rarity-based. The law of supply and demand explains the prices of these coins despite their ready availability.

    It seems to me that this is a reasonable explanation of why some rarer reverse types can seem undervalued to a knowledgeable collector, especially one whose collection has great breadth of types and styles. For smaller collections with less breadth, condition is likely to be more of a determining factor than rarity of a coin's reverse.
     
  16. mlov43

    mlov43 주화 수집가

    All I know is what I buy: Key-date South Korean coins at auction have been selling for much lower prices in the last five years. Before 2007, there were 13 to 25 bidders for any given one of these coins at Ebay, normally. Now, about 4 to 10 bidders, and they go for below SCWC prices! The economy has even softened the Korean market for South Korean coins, although prices are still much higher there than for the same coins sold in North America.
     
  17. mlov43

    mlov43 주화 수집가

    I will keep in mind the "Summer Effect" when making purchasing decisions. I think you may have something there.
     
  18. Valentinian

    Valentinian Well-Known Member

    In the old days coin firms scaled back operations in the summer. There are so many other things for collectors to do in the summer (mowing the lawn and playing with kids outside come to mind). Coin offerings resumed in the Fall. Now coins are available every day and auctions occur year round, but the diminished collector attention in the summer remains. Result -- somewhat weaker prices in the summer.
     
  19. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    I find the same for Thai coins, and other world coins. I cannot buy them in their source countries for nearly as cheap as they go for in the US. Might as well take advantage of that fact though, huh? I sure try to.

    As for reasons? I guess the US is still dominated with US only collectors. Us here on the world and ancient forum are simply the oddballs.
     
Draft saved Draft deleted

Share This Page