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<p>[QUOTE="Alex22, post: 3575970, member: 102942"]From my short experience in this hobby and based on the evidence I have encountered so far, I have come to the following conclusions and reflections. I thought that it would be useful to start this discussion to see the general consensus on CoinTalk, especially given this recent thread (<a href="http://www.cointalk.com/threads/vespasian-dream-coin.340287/" class="internalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://www.cointalk.com/threads/vespasian-dream-coin.340287/">http://www.cointalk.com/threads/vespasian-dream-coin.340287/</a>).</p><p><br /></p><p><b>1.</b> The assumption "<i>established/respected auction house = coin authenticity guaranty</i>" should be dismissed. Maybe it was the case before, but not nowadays.</p><p><br /></p><p>Many auction houses have moved towards the business model of high coin turnover with just basic authenticity checks or, often, with no hands-on checks (<i>some consigned coins</i>). I am sure the coins they realize for 10k+ price would pass through a more detailed investigation, to minimize their own risks, however, the coins accessible to common collectors, pass the same amount of checks that any capable forger would do as a "<i>quality control</i>" of his/her own work.</p><p><br /></p><p>The auction houses are there for a profit, and everything is evolving around that. If detailed checks for each and every coin they move would drain more money from them (<i>i.e. payments to different professionals covering specialized coinage and periods</i>) than the occasionally found fakes being returned to them, then such vigorous checks will not be done (<i>I wonder which part of "occasionally found fakes" comes from "occasional researching", rather than the fakes being rare</i>).</p><p><br /></p><p>Some airlines sell more tickets than there are places on an airplane, since the occasional need to compensate the passengers that have to be left out (<i>in case everyone shows up at boarding</i>) drains less money from the company than the profit gained by not loosing a single seat when some people do not show up. Many big shops do not hire security, because their annual salary would be higher than the cost of products stolen from unguarded shops in a year. The analogies are everywhere. Auction houses are doing business and any other assumption is a wishful thinking.</p><p><br /></p><p>With the advent of auction houses that have large quantities of coins in their monthly turnover, even the older and more "trusted" ones have to switch to the above business model to survive the competition.</p><p><br /></p><p>I have had a few concerns with a few accessible coins (<i>not talking more frequent dynasty, mint city, period misattributions</i>) that I did not bid on, but while contacting the respective houses (<i>to make up my mind</i>), none of them said anything remotely close to "<i>we stand by our coins, those all passed our checks and we guarantee those to be authentic</i>". The replies were mostly variations around "<i>those coins are consigned, not actually ours</i>", "<i>we have not seen those coins in hand</i>", "<i>mistakes always happen and are expected, you can always return if unhappy</i>", "<i>we do some general checks, but if you find something, you are always welcome to let us know</i>".</p><p><br /></p><p>Of course, buying from an auction house or an established dealer is still better as it would allow you to return the coin if proven to be a fake, but one should still do his/her homework as the only party interested in digging up the origin of the coin, and as the only party that can actually spend weeks on researching a single coin.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>2.</b> The assumption "<i>good provenance = coin authenticity guaranty</i>" should be dismissed.</p><p><br /></p><p>All the coins were either recently found/cleaned, or passed through multiple hands. The fact that some of those passing were recorded for some coins, is not a guarantee of authenticity. The fact that some of the owners were rich and famous, does not add to the authenticity. Even the fact that some of the owners were renowned numismats, does not shield us from a fact that you may hold a coin from their black cabinet, or a coin that their numismat owners did not manage to research.</p><p><br /></p><p>This, of course, does not mean that a good provenance would not be a pleasant addition to the coin as a nice extra spice on it. However, it is just an extra information that is great to have, maintain, add and pass on, rather than something authenticating or making the necessity to research the coin any less relevant. We all collect prevalently because of the epoch and people who held the coin at its origin (<i>thanks to [USER=44132]@Bing[/USER], I have a Syracuse coin contemporary to freakin' Archimedes</i>), not because of the people that held it while the coin traveled to us (<i>unless someone more exciting than a Roman villager, a druid or an ancient soldier touched it</i>).</p><p><br /></p><p><b>3.</b> Most of us collect coins as a hobby that co-exists with our family, profession, and other hobbies. I may spend weeks researching a coin from a few of my favorites, but the rest of the coins would not get more than a few days each, certainly not enough for a guaranteed authentication, die link research etc. To this end, if I post a coin, I also appreciate that the "Hive Mind" of CoinTalk will have far superior capabilities and valuable members, who may have spent more time researching the specific types I post about. To this end, if any of the members have concerns or evidence even at a fraction of what [USER=96900]@Lolli[/USER] brought in the recent <a href="http://www.cointalk.com/threads/vespasian-dream-coin.340287/" class="internalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://www.cointalk.com/threads/vespasian-dream-coin.340287/">post</a>, please post those concerns and scream about it as loudly as possible. Any other attitude is what creates the opportunities for fakes to infiltrate, then gather "<i>good provenance</i>" by staying for a while with us. By all means post praises about the coins too. The subject area is too broad for any of us to cover all, and we were lucky in that particular <a href="https://www.cointalk.com/threads/vespasian-dream-coin.340287/" class="internalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="https://www.cointalk.com/threads/vespasian-dream-coin.340287/">case</a> a person appeared who knew it better for that coin type. As in science "<i>No evidence will ever finally prove a hypothesis/model, but one good evidence is enough to destroy it</i>". I would not like people on CoinTalk to feel restricted to bring up their good evidences.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>4.</b> That should be paramount to not simply keep the sure fake coins in a "<i>black cabinet</i>". Mark them in some permanent way, or better, destroy them after documenting them. You never know what will happen a few hundred years downstream, and where that coin will end up sold as an authentic one. Unless there is a harsh clearance process for the fakes, those will just keep accumulating for millennia, and gain lives of their own. This is one of the few hobbies where "<i>time is in the equation</i>", and we need to think for millennia.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>5.</b> With the ever increasing ease of creating convincing fakes that will confuse most collectors, <b>we all need to be alert in this hobby and help each other to identify and reject the fakes</b>. The techniques are ever improving. The improved knowledge of collectors forces the forgers to evolve. There is no reason why a-few-millennia-old techniques cannot be perfectly reproduced now. All the chemical tools are there too for accelerated aging and patina formation. With the influx of more collectors and increasing demand for ancient coins, expect increased influx of struck fakes with ever convincing toning and patination.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>6.</b> In any authentication attempt (<i>i.e. attempts to properly recognize ancient coins - desirable true positives, TP</i>), there can be false positives (<i>FP, coins assumed to be authentic, but fakes in reality</i>) and false negatives (<i>FN, coins assumed to be fakes, but authentic in reality</i>). We shall all aim to identify FPs as precisely as possible, even if that would mean to use harsher criteria which may also cause some FNs to suffer. At present, most of us have "<i>the coin is authentic until proven otherwise</i>" attitude. Unfortunately, it will soon be reasonable to switch to "<i>the coin is fake until proven otherwise</i>", as techniques improve and the identified fakes stay in some sort of cabinets.</p><p><br /></p><p>Happy collecting![/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Alex22, post: 3575970, member: 102942"]From my short experience in this hobby and based on the evidence I have encountered so far, I have come to the following conclusions and reflections. I thought that it would be useful to start this discussion to see the general consensus on CoinTalk, especially given this recent thread ([URL]http://www.cointalk.com/threads/vespasian-dream-coin.340287/[/URL]). [B]1.[/B] The assumption "[I]established/respected auction house = coin authenticity guaranty[/I]" should be dismissed. Maybe it was the case before, but not nowadays. Many auction houses have moved towards the business model of high coin turnover with just basic authenticity checks or, often, with no hands-on checks ([I]some consigned coins[/I]). I am sure the coins they realize for 10k+ price would pass through a more detailed investigation, to minimize their own risks, however, the coins accessible to common collectors, pass the same amount of checks that any capable forger would do as a "[I]quality control[/I]" of his/her own work. The auction houses are there for a profit, and everything is evolving around that. If detailed checks for each and every coin they move would drain more money from them ([I]i.e. payments to different professionals covering specialized coinage and periods[/I]) than the occasionally found fakes being returned to them, then such vigorous checks will not be done ([I]I wonder which part of "occasionally found fakes" comes from "occasional researching", rather than the fakes being rare[/I]). Some airlines sell more tickets than there are places on an airplane, since the occasional need to compensate the passengers that have to be left out ([I]in case everyone shows up at boarding[/I]) drains less money from the company than the profit gained by not loosing a single seat when some people do not show up. Many big shops do not hire security, because their annual salary would be higher than the cost of products stolen from unguarded shops in a year. The analogies are everywhere. Auction houses are doing business and any other assumption is a wishful thinking. With the advent of auction houses that have large quantities of coins in their monthly turnover, even the older and more "trusted" ones have to switch to the above business model to survive the competition. I have had a few concerns with a few accessible coins ([I]not talking more frequent dynasty, mint city, period misattributions[/I]) that I did not bid on, but while contacting the respective houses ([I]to make up my mind[/I]), none of them said anything remotely close to "[I]we stand by our coins, those all passed our checks and we guarantee those to be authentic[/I]". The replies were mostly variations around "[I]those coins are consigned, not actually ours[/I]", "[I]we have not seen those coins in hand[/I]", "[I]mistakes always happen and are expected, you can always return if unhappy[/I]", "[I]we do some general checks, but if you find something, you are always welcome to let us know[/I]". Of course, buying from an auction house or an established dealer is still better as it would allow you to return the coin if proven to be a fake, but one should still do his/her homework as the only party interested in digging up the origin of the coin, and as the only party that can actually spend weeks on researching a single coin. [B]2.[/B] The assumption "[I]good provenance = coin authenticity guaranty[/I]" should be dismissed. All the coins were either recently found/cleaned, or passed through multiple hands. The fact that some of those passing were recorded for some coins, is not a guarantee of authenticity. The fact that some of the owners were rich and famous, does not add to the authenticity. Even the fact that some of the owners were renowned numismats, does not shield us from a fact that you may hold a coin from their black cabinet, or a coin that their numismat owners did not manage to research. This, of course, does not mean that a good provenance would not be a pleasant addition to the coin as a nice extra spice on it. However, it is just an extra information that is great to have, maintain, add and pass on, rather than something authenticating or making the necessity to research the coin any less relevant. We all collect prevalently because of the epoch and people who held the coin at its origin ([I]thanks to [USER=44132]@Bing[/USER], I have a Syracuse coin contemporary to freakin' Archimedes[/I]), not because of the people that held it while the coin traveled to us ([I]unless someone more exciting than a Roman villager, a druid or an ancient soldier touched it[/I]). [B]3.[/B] Most of us collect coins as a hobby that co-exists with our family, profession, and other hobbies. I may spend weeks researching a coin from a few of my favorites, but the rest of the coins would not get more than a few days each, certainly not enough for a guaranteed authentication, die link research etc. To this end, if I post a coin, I also appreciate that the "Hive Mind" of CoinTalk will have far superior capabilities and valuable members, who may have spent more time researching the specific types I post about. To this end, if any of the members have concerns or evidence even at a fraction of what [USER=96900]@Lolli[/USER] brought in the recent [URL='http://www.cointalk.com/threads/vespasian-dream-coin.340287/']post[/URL], please post those concerns and scream about it as loudly as possible. Any other attitude is what creates the opportunities for fakes to infiltrate, then gather "[I]good provenance[/I]" by staying for a while with us. By all means post praises about the coins too. The subject area is too broad for any of us to cover all, and we were lucky in that particular [URL='https://www.cointalk.com/threads/vespasian-dream-coin.340287/']case[/URL] a person appeared who knew it better for that coin type. As in science "[I]No evidence will ever finally prove a hypothesis/model, but one good evidence is enough to destroy it[/I]". I would not like people on CoinTalk to feel restricted to bring up their good evidences. [B]4.[/B] That should be paramount to not simply keep the sure fake coins in a "[I]black cabinet[/I]". Mark them in some permanent way, or better, destroy them after documenting them. You never know what will happen a few hundred years downstream, and where that coin will end up sold as an authentic one. Unless there is a harsh clearance process for the fakes, those will just keep accumulating for millennia, and gain lives of their own. This is one of the few hobbies where "[I]time is in the equation[/I]", and we need to think for millennia. [B]5.[/B] With the ever increasing ease of creating convincing fakes that will confuse most collectors, [B]we all need to be alert in this hobby and help each other to identify and reject the fakes[/B]. The techniques are ever improving. The improved knowledge of collectors forces the forgers to evolve. There is no reason why a-few-millennia-old techniques cannot be perfectly reproduced now. All the chemical tools are there too for accelerated aging and patina formation. With the influx of more collectors and increasing demand for ancient coins, expect increased influx of struck fakes with ever convincing toning and patination. [B]6.[/B] In any authentication attempt ([I]i.e. attempts to properly recognize ancient coins - desirable true positives, TP[/I]), there can be false positives ([I]FP, coins assumed to be authentic, but fakes in reality[/I]) and false negatives ([I]FN, coins assumed to be fakes, but authentic in reality[/I]). We shall all aim to identify FPs as precisely as possible, even if that would mean to use harsher criteria which may also cause some FNs to suffer. At present, most of us have "[I]the coin is authentic until proven otherwise[/I]" attitude. Unfortunately, it will soon be reasonable to switch to "[I]the coin is fake until proven otherwise[/I]", as techniques improve and the identified fakes stay in some sort of cabinets. Happy collecting![/QUOTE]
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Some reflections on ancient coin acquisition and fakes
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