Silver

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by Danr, May 1, 2011.

  1. WingedLiberty

    WingedLiberty Well-Known Member

    Silver finally made it into my target zone of $35 to $40 in this correction!
    It was $39.50 an ounce a little while ago

    Now let's see if it can make it down closer to $35 (not sure it's going to make it down there).
    $35 was my "50% retracement" call made when silver was close to $50
    (1/2 of the explosive move from $20 to $50)

    But at least it did fall into my bottom "zone" call of $35 to $40. I have to pat myself on the back for that as i called it when silver was close to $50 on the morning that i dumped all my paper silver positions and mining stocks.

    If silver falls down under $37, certainly under $36, I will buy more physical ... maybe another 40 ASE's.

    At $35 I will go long paper silver again in my retirement accts.
     
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  3. InfleXion

    InfleXion Wealth Preserver

    Just wanna thank all you guys for the info you share. I would probably be on pins and needles if I didn't know about the Comex situation. I think it's the people who are unaware in that regard that are continuing to drive the price down as fear of loss sets in. The price right now is still more than I would like to pay, but I'm going to buy this dip by the end of the week if it doesn't jump back up before then. Crossing my fingers it declines a bit more, and then rebounds next week.

    I'm not sure how I will apply the 25% rule, because my interest is not so much in a static PM total, but rather a minimal (yet supportable) dollar holding. Probably will just go grab a roll of ASE's unless I can track down a coin show.
     
  4. green18

    green18 Unknown member Sweet on Commemorative Coins Supporter

    If that does happen, good luck in finding a dealer willing to sell at that price.....
     
  5. WingedLiberty

    WingedLiberty Well-Known Member


    Yes, the big problem is the stock is low or out at 2nd tier distributors.

    I do realize that at $36 spot, the gov't sells ASE's to it's 1st tier distibutors for $38, then adding a 6% profit margin for the retailers (adds another $2.28). So at $36 spot, one ounce silver eagles will be retailing for around $40.28 when you buy rolls (or about $805 a roll).

    So at $36 spot, you will find silver eagles selling for a bit over $40.


     
  6. GregBnCoins

    GregBnCoins Member

    I still come out ahead... Avg. cost Per Eagle $ 12.77 tripling my money @ $40. per! With the fear in losing most will cash in dropping the price further! I look for a bottom of $23-28 range!
     
  7. treehugger

    treehugger Well-Known Member

    I hope you are right, Greg. Personally, I buy silver for 2 reasons: I like an alternative to fiat money and I like the beauty and eye appeal of a number of coins. It's nice to see the price increase, but not in the ridiculous way it has been. Maybe this will help clear out the profiteers and put things back in the hands of those of us who collect coins for what they are. I would love to be able to get into a buying mode again, but not at the recent stratospheric levels. Hopefully, the silver "gods" will let us see the $20.00 range again in the not too distant future.
     
  8. Bodie

    Bodie Member

    Yes, silver is pretty, however, after what I've observed this week, is it a precious metal or just a high-quality silver-colored lump of dirt?

    Feel sorry for the newbies who flock to these forums and get sucked into the buy fever. The paid cheerleaders of silver, the ones who show up at the peaks, are so vile.

    "To da moon." Uh huh. Now that it's been proven again that pricing is entirely in the control of the weighty big boys, I'm not sure why anyone would bother taking this moon talk too seriously.

    The next time you see a significant price rise, be aware that it's probably just bait, and buried inside, there is likely a hook waiting to take you down.
     
  9. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    Sometimes maybe I am just naive, but to me I don't see any manipulation or conspiracy, I see a lot of emotions in PM trading. I also believe silver probably got the attention of some hedge funds which we will never know about for a year or more and part of the price could have been their action, and that action may not be over. I guess I do believe in "hot money" affecting this market, but don't buy into banks intentionally keeping this market lower.

    Think about it, if a bank or group of banks is the market maker for a market, what is their motive for keeping prices low? They are the market maker, they make their money by activity in the marketplace. They can protect themselves to the low or high side of the market, they are simply interested in activity. How does that translate into them making money by forcing the PM market lower than it otherwise would be? This is brought up a lot at PM sites, I have just never had them explain to me why a market maker would care about the market level given that they can hedge up or downside risk.

    Is this supposed to be some huge conspiracy to bankrupt PM miners? To "steal" PM from consumers? What?

    Chris
     
  10. desertgem

    desertgem Senior Errer Collecktor Supporter

    I have the opposing view that it is the people who ARE aware of the comex actions ( and the comex reaction should have been over by now) that are selling and driving the price down. Delivery if needed will be accomplished even if principals have to buy it from others over the market price, which may be even lower than now by then. The margin increases will limit any rapid speculation to the positive side.

    I believe it is the small timers , retail , such as forum members that are holding on to most , still hoping for a reversal level which may not come. As far as expectation of fading US dollar, this may decreasing also, so Gold will be affected similarly, but not as risky as silver. If one wishes to get bullion for any central bank problems, I feel Gold based will be saner. As usual, just my opinion.
     
  11. Bodie

    Bodie Member

    Chris, nobody here can educate you on the dynamics behind the silver market (and the stock market, for that matter). I have observed this market since the 1980s; very little has changed since then. And people who bought silver back then and still have it have lost their shirts on that investment.

    I have been studying everything I can get my eyes on to see what drives the silver market. It's a huge learning experience, and can't be conveyed in a thread in a forum like this.

    Suggest you read a variety of sources. I really liked the series of the foul-mouthed "Silver Bears" (6 videos) on YouTube; good starting place...although for me it was an ending place in my quest for info.

    By rigged, I mean what I said in an earlier post somewhere on this forum: When certain actions are done (margin hikes), certain expectations follow (falling prices). Many institutions gamble on falling prices, and they make big money when these prices fall. It's a very simple thing to do (make millions and billions) if you are an insider.

    And on forums like this (not this one so much, thankfully), there are paid shills who act as cheerleaders for silver when prices are going up. They make me sick because I know the temptation is great for new players in silver. And some of them lost a lot of money lately.
     
  12. Bodie

    Bodie Member

    It is unregulated capitalism, pure and simple. Greed.

    It is all about money...magnificent salaries, yachts, dream bonuses, second and third homes. It's not about hurting other people or businesses...those are mere casualties in the quest for riches.

    I'm sure the players don't really care who or what they hurt. It's not personal; it's "business".
     
  13. gbroke

    gbroke Naturally Toned

  14. ahmed ali

    ahmed ali New Member

    fatima can u really tell me .... whts going to happen with silver .i m really worried
     
  15. Morgan1878

    Morgan1878 For A Few Dollars More..

    When I saw this, I immediately thought of YakPoo who correctly predicted on a now closed thread that silver would not hit $50.

    Nice call at the top YakPoo now will you please call the bottom..:thumb:
     
  16. gbroke

    gbroke Naturally Toned

    haha, yeah. When I saw it over $49/oz, I was thinking YakPoo was off his rocker. Color me stupid.
     
  17. Cloudsweeper99

    Cloudsweeper99 Treasure Hunter

    I think the difference is that the so-called market makers in silver also trade for their own account, and to the extent they can manipulate the silver price in either direction, they can magnify their gains. Silver is a small enough market to make this feasible, and until relatively recently, nobody paid much attention to it. I've seen some evidence that they do this, but it might also just be lax regulation. Ted Butler has done a pretty good job of demonstrating how it is done, and has a decent track record of predicting future moves by the market makers.
     
  18. Cloudsweeper99

    Cloudsweeper99 Treasure Hunter

    Oh please!! This isn't a good place to come and assume you know more from your youtube education than the folks here.
     
  19. InfleXion

    InfleXion Wealth Preserver

    A sound viewpoint. I wonder if the margin hikes will slow people from haphazardly throwing money at SLV while simultaneously shorting it. I wouldn't be surprised to see more hikes in the future, keeping prices from getting too out of hand. I also view gold as safer, but still like silver's upside because the average person can't afford gold in today's economy without a high premium. Although, I suppose that would only hold ground in the event that all the major players get out of the way. As Bodie said ...

    ... the weighty big boys will trump common sense and market fundamentals every time. I think if anyone is willing to base their decision on other peoples' opinions they are putting their neck on the line. It's unwise, and yeah I feel sorry for people who lost out, but I wouldn't hold anyone else accountable. There are surely paid cheerleaders on both sides of the fence. Just because we haven't gone to the moon yet doesn't mean the mission is aborted either :p I think we'll see a seesaw pattern of 2 steps forward, 1 step backward for as long as new money is being created at its current rate. Of course that could change, as could just about anything else that may influence things in a way nobody predicted. At the end of the day it's not about making money for me. It's about making sure I will always have some.

    Indeed, Yakpoo and 1970 Silver Art both called it! Although as we have seen things can change in an instant, so I'll add 'for now' as a caveat ;) I've seen differing views on whether volatility indicates bearish or bullish sentiment, but under today's circumstances I don't think you can infer too much with confidence.
     
  20. Bodie

    Bodie Member

    Don't lecture me about how much I know and don't know. I was buying silver in 1980 and beyond. Were you born yet?
     
  21. saltysam-1

    saltysam-1 Junior Member

    In the United States we have freedom. And freedom is offered to all, even those who feel freedom means to do what ever you want to who ever you please. As long as the "me" is satisfied inside that person, business, governing community or society, it will always be tolerated and allowed to continue. After all, who dares to interfere in the well being of me/yourself? IMHO.
     
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