Silver shortage?

Hi,

I've just joined, after reading posts about the Gaithersburg Coin Exchange, which is in my community. I have never purchased anything from them, but when I was first researching the coin market, came in and spoke to Marc. He and other staff members were helpful, but I was and still am fairly naive about the nuances of this market.

Their price for silver eagles today is $15.90, which is relatively low, particularly as there seems to be an apparent "shortage of silver (Jason Hommel's reports), and an anomalously low spot price.

Does anyone have a sense of what is really driving this discrepancy, and whether predictions of a massive geopolitical, economic, public health, etc. shift predicted to begin late this month or into October is involved? Apart from the manipulation of the price of gold, particularly, is the availability of silver being controlled to reduce public access to this relatively affordable option to conserving or increasing financial assets once the dollar stops artificially strengthening and begins its eventual descent?

Please forgive if this is not appropriate for discussion here. I'm en route to purchasing the easily obtainable silver at the Gaithersburg shop and appreciate having a forum to discuss these things in the meantime.

Thanks....

 

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I think there is plenty of silver , jusy go to any coinshop or show , you can buy all you want , the reason for the drop in silver prices is that the US dollar gained some value against the other major currencies , thus the dollar will purchase more , just as the week dollar drove the prices up . Also welcome to CT.
rzage

 

First welcome to CT.

$15,90 on silver eagles is a good price right now. I work in a shop and we're selling at $20.

Why? Most dealers have way over current spot invested in them. They don't want to lose $2-4 for every piece they sell.

We are actually one of the few shops selling much silver right now in my area. A few I think ARE precariously low while others are sitting on it.

When silver was high we were buying CONSTANTLY but the boss was also smart enough to move it fast.
Todays silver purchase was a set of Sterling silverware.

Rzage hit it. When the dollar was weaker there was a lot more silver available because people were streaming in to sell. Now the dollar is stronger and people are looking to buy.

The surge in the dollar and the plummeting of precious metals has thrown the industry into an uncertain area. Even a slight boost would help level the sitution out from a seller's point of view.

 

What Clembo said....gold took a hit today, so did silver. Lots of folks bought into the market at higher prices and are reluctant to sell hoping that the market for precious metals goes back up. Very volatile situation right now.

 

Welcome to Cointalk Koantoss! I agree with everything already stated, and there is nothing inappropriate about your question. However, might I suggest you check out another board by the name of GoldisMoney.info if this is a topic you are seriously interested in exploring. While we have many members here that are both knowledgeable and helpful when it comes to the precious metal commodity markets, they live and breath the subject over at GIM.

 

Looks like a good time to buy silver and if you can afford it gold . JMO .
rzage

 

The only shortage I've seen is with the ASE's. Like mentioned above, everyone is buying now because the price is low, so naturally the supply of modern silver bullion will be in short supply. But, on a whole, there is tons of other silver coins out there selling for little more than melt, but with some real numismatic value as well. Why buy an ASE when you could buy a nice Morgan or Barber half for the same price?
Guy~

 

catching a falling knife?

 

Yeah, I don't think there's a shortage of silver. I'm not an expert. But what percentage of the population of just say, America, is actually looking to or willing to buy silver? Whatever it's doing at any time? Even if it dropped to 5 bucks an ounce tomorrow? How many really are paying attention or would even care? I'm betting the percentage is very small. Most people, the vast majority don't even think about it and if you ask them, they say, "why would you want it?"

If at some point the economy had to start dealing in precious metals because the dollar finally fails, then..... who knows? But at that point, it's too late to be trying to get your hands on some. You've missed the boat. You better have food, medicines, ammunition or pelts for sale.

People would certainly re-discover what it means for something to have value.

 

It is important to define what you mean by shortage. There isn't a "shortage" of ASEs or other retail forms of silver in the sense that all of it is gone or used up. There exists the same or a similar amount to last year at this time, and there will be close to the same number of coins in existence next year. However, many of the holders of silver aren't interested in selling near the current spot price, so in that sense much of the silver in existence isn't available for sale right now, making it look and feel like a shortage. Some analysts have hinted that this is because the futures traders have knocked down the price of silver in the paper market below where most of the holders of physical silver think it should be. So the system is temporarily seizing up a bit. Probably a sign that this is a good time to buy if you can get the silver close to the spot price. $15 for ASEs seems like a great deal to me.

 

That's probably why my hands are so scarred up :rolling:
rzage:hatch::hammer:

 

right, but they'll raise the price (if the spot price goes up) fast as anything.

 

But what they can't quite grasp is that there is no loss as long as they sell at a price higher than their replacement cost.

 

Certainly won't argue with you guys considering that I see it every day.

The boss is lowering his price on ASEs pre 2008 actually (except the 96 of course). Problem is that few are coming into sell. If we need more they'll be 2008 and those are still getting a good premium from wholesalers if you can find enough.

Having been at the shop only since April I can tell you all this much. With the huge drop in precious metals I've learned a LOT from a dealers point of view.

 

I'm also disappointed in the lack of drop in prices for "junk" silver or AG/G stuff like Walkers, Franklins and Washies.

I haven't really trolled e-bay, but my normal Internet sites are still showing Walkers at well over $6 and so on. I'm a little disappointed.

 

Well I can tell you that on eBay they are still bidding like there was never a decline in spot silver. For almost every coin there is always some fool who will overpay. Except of course when I try to sell something.

 

if they could grasp that they wouldnt be in the coin business

 

silver seems plentiful from where I am at.

 

Based on the shops, both physical and online, no one's out. I've bought silver eagles, kookaburras, philharmonics, and Maple Leaves in 4 states recently. Every shop had piles of one or more of these. One nearby shop even begged me to buy more. They had heaps of coins. If this is a shortage I'd hate to see an oversupply - we probably couldn't get into the shops.

Gold is another story... many shops seem short on that shiny metal...

 

I find this helpful and use it as a guide to what I will pay for coin go to the website and look for the per dollar face value. If the dealer bought too much too high too bad. Silver will only bring what silver is worth (when I try and sell it) : )

https://online.kitco.com/refining/

Also there is no problem in my area for silver coin or otherwise lots and lots....