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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Rono, post: 170438, member: 6492&quot;]Howdy,</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Predicting the future is dicey at best, but thinkg are looking like $15.00 by Christmas and higher next year.&nbsp; Things could settle back a bit in the spring.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Reasoning:</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Seasonality.&nbsp; 4th and 1st quarters are the best season for the precious metals somewhat due to christmas, but also cultural in India (mom&#039;s retirement and sister&#039;s dowry).</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Macro factors:</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>China only legalized owning gold a couple of years back and with their booming economy there is a lot of new money chasing Bling.&nbsp; In India, they also have a booming economy and there are cultural reasons to buy gold.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>China, OPEC and other int&#039;l trading partners of the US that own a lot of dollars are starting to buy gold for diversification.&nbsp; Not really selling dollars as that would drive the price down, but slowly adding gold and other &#039;real stuff&#039;.&nbsp; Hey, how many tents do you need full of dollars before you want something else?&nbsp; Besides with the denial of the purchase of conoco(?) by the chinese oil company AND the dubai port operation denial, our gov&#039;t essentially told the world that we&#039;re not willing to let them buy anything of value with all of our dollars that they hold.&nbsp; er, they&#039;re no longer redeemable for real stuff stateside.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Our twin deficits are starting to trash the dollar as our national fiscal house is in shambles.&nbsp; Normally, the Fed could raise rates to strengthen same, but cannot now due to slowing economy due to all their past rate hikes.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Inflation is being under-reported due to accounting methods (no conspiracy, just coincidence) such as the 20% housing portion of the CPI based upon Rental Rates rather than owned housing and the 50% of the basket subject to hedonic adjustments (if it&#039;s new and improved they can charge more and we won&#039;t count it even if you don&#039;t have a choice of the older unimproved version).&nbsp; However, due again to the slowing economy AND the offical numbers, the Fed cannot raise rates.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>75 million baby boomers starting to retire and the cupboard is bare.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Seems to me some good arguements for a continuing bull market in gold and the other metals (historically commodity rallies normally last 15 years and this one is 5 years old).</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Now how about gold vs. silver.&nbsp; Simply a much greater profit potential in silver than gold.&nbsp; During the Hunt Bros rally, silver went up 10 fold while gold doubled.&nbsp; This historical ratio of gold to silver is 1 to 15-20 and while we were in the high 60&#039;s earlier this year and are now down to 46, there&#039;s still a long way to go.&nbsp; </p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>just the ravings of a silver bug.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>peace,</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>rono[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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