Silver is down, and a morgan dollar "melts" for $16.26. Looking at ebay, most morgans are bringing $30, and that's what most dealers are asking. It seems as if the bullion price of silver dollars and the collectible value of silver dollars has split. It seems as if the last silver price increased raised a threshold for them, and now it's not coming back down. If silver drops to $15, a Morgan dollar will have $11.60 worth of silver. Will morgan dollars still be $30?
It's not just eBay. Apmex wants $3087 for a bag of VG-VF Morgan dollars. Even if you bought a 1000 coin bag of 21 morgan in VG-VF, you're still spending at least $27.90 each, close to $28.
If someone bought a Morgan dollar for $30+, it is not likely he will be selling it to you for less regardless of POS unless he really needs the money. Now with that being said, once people desperate for funds start selling their Morgans to dealers for $10, you may then start seeing some pop up on the market for $15-20. If you really want a good deal cut out the middle man and start placing ads to buy Morgans. TC
That is the reason. And it happens all the time with coins. But most folks don't notice that it is happening with coins because while one coin drops in price others may hold, or even rise. And prices for individual coins are not well publicized. They only begin to notice really when the coin market as a whole drops. With the spot price of silver or gold it's different because the spot price applies to all silver and gold, and it is very well publicized. So everybody notices right away when sellers are still offering their gold & silver at prices well above spot long after the price has dropped. And you can't blame them for trying. Think about it. If you bought a 1,000 ounces of silver and paid $30/oz for it, if the spot price suddenly dropped to say $20/oz, are you going to try and sell your silver and take an automatic 30% loss ? Not likely. The most likely scenario is that you are going to offer it at a break even price, hoping to get lucky and get out. Or, you may hold and hope to get lucky and see the spot price rise again. Most people are always reluctant to take the loss when a market turns, so they hold out as long as they can, praying that they can sell and minimize their losses. Usually they end up holding out too long and maximizing their losses. But then that is human nature.
I stopped buying silver dollars when the price hit $12 apiece. But no, I still will not sell them at $20 per. They are a long term buy.
I would think the fact that Morgans have numismatic value above and beyond the silver content is at least part of the reason. If you just want silver, buy silver. If you want a bit of history, buy some Morgans. Yes I have heard (and read) plenty of times that distressed, cleaned, and common Morgans are only "worth melt" but I think there is also some intrinsic value to the history beyond the silver content.
MOrgans have always carried premiums to junk silver. Anyone buying silver dollars at melt has gotten lucky. Heck, I was paying $6-7 per morgan back when the silver in them was only worth $3. They are a different market than bullion. Related, yes, but not 100% correlated. A lot of old men like them since they are so large they can read the dates earlier. For full disclosure, making fun of myself here too, my arms are getting longer every day.
The same goes for Liberty $20s - in EF they are worth a percentage above spot. A few years ago I was buying up Libs for 2% over spot from Heritage, and they were straight of Europe - if they would not holder they sold just above spot. I like the idea of owning something 130-140 years old that I don't have to pay some huge markup for.
I've been holding out on a 1946D walker I paid $280 for in 1983. It spiraled in to around $50 a few years later and has been stuck there ever since. There is no way I'm selling it for $50. I would rather give it away first.
Bullion tends to rise and fall with spot, falling a little slower than it rises. Coin that have a numismatic value only a small amount over their bullion value will rise as spot rises (with the premium over bullion getting smaller and smaller as the price rises), but when spot falls their price comes down much more slowly. But if spot stays down the coin price will eventually fall back down until it is once again just a small amount over the bullion value.
Tim, please answer this question: Did you post this out of genuine curiosity (which shows a complete lack of understanding of human nature, business, and numismatic history), to make a point that no one gets, to complain (this seems the most likely one) that no one is willing to sell you Morgans (that you want to flip onto eBay) for $16, or something else?
Not sure Tim "needs" to respond unless he has something to add (and God knows he NEVER does that). I think a lot of numasmatic items (however loosely you want to use that term) have reached bottom and are not going lower except for possibly some of those "Two Ounces Of 90% Silver Coins" on fee-bay, and those are already ridiculously overpriced in general.
I think they are semi-numismatic, I wish I would of been buying them with silver at $30-$40+ when they were selling for close to melt instead of bullion. If they ever get close to melt again (probably will take $50+ silver) they will probably be the only thing I'll buy since it seems they have protection to the downside in silver prices.
I agree with Conder101. Personally I think we will see premiums come down slowly in Morgan Dollars in the next year or so if silver doesn't bounce back.