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<p>[QUOTE="Cloudsweeper99, post: 94443, member: 3011"]Mike,</p><p><br /></p><p>What you say about photography is true. But something like 85%-90% of the silver used by photo labs gets recycled anyway, so as photography decreases as a USE for silver, it also decreases as a SOURCE of silver by almost as much. And even if silver use in photography is no longer growing, I'm not sure how much it is actually declining on a worldwide annual basis.</p><p><br /></p><p>All investing involves estimating probabilities. Since nobody is running around counting ounces produced and consumed around the world, everything is an estimate. I've read several Wall St assertions that silver inventories will rise automatically in response to price increases, but this is just stated as a general observation that the writers probably learned in college in their macroeconomics course. It isn't analysis. I haven't read any detailed in depth analysis by any writer that didn't conclude that there is a production deficit that is unlikely to be filled unless and until the price rises high enough to destroy demand. Increasing supplies just don't seem to be available.</p><p><br /></p><p>Anyway, I wouldn't want to be a seller of any kind of silver coins these days unless it is part of a normal, ongoing, profitable business [i.e., a dealer is excused from selling silver coins because it's what they do. A collector is not]. It might turn out to be one of those major regrets in life a few years from now.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Cloudsweeper99, post: 94443, member: 3011"]Mike, What you say about photography is true. But something like 85%-90% of the silver used by photo labs gets recycled anyway, so as photography decreases as a USE for silver, it also decreases as a SOURCE of silver by almost as much. And even if silver use in photography is no longer growing, I'm not sure how much it is actually declining on a worldwide annual basis. All investing involves estimating probabilities. Since nobody is running around counting ounces produced and consumed around the world, everything is an estimate. I've read several Wall St assertions that silver inventories will rise automatically in response to price increases, but this is just stated as a general observation that the writers probably learned in college in their macroeconomics course. It isn't analysis. I haven't read any detailed in depth analysis by any writer that didn't conclude that there is a production deficit that is unlikely to be filled unless and until the price rises high enough to destroy demand. Increasing supplies just don't seem to be available. Anyway, I wouldn't want to be a seller of any kind of silver coins these days unless it is part of a normal, ongoing, profitable business [i.e., a dealer is excused from selling silver coins because it's what they do. A collector is not]. It might turn out to be one of those major regrets in life a few years from now.[/QUOTE]
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