Should I bid on this coin?

Even if this is true more often than not, it is not fact. There are more than a few non variety infrequently traded coins that the red book is rather low on. It would be much more reasonable to say that “if you use red book prices, especially for more common and readily available material, you are likely to overpay”.

I agree that the red book is generally a poor value reference, but not because it is "outdated"; the problem comes from how the so-called “values” are obtained.

 

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I thought red book prices were considered low. It seems to me coins in coin shops are more often than not above red book prices.

 

I was speaking about the specific coin in this thread. Very similar problem coins had recent sold in the $125-$300 range...not in the $400-$500 range as Red Book lists. As a general rule, I agree with what you are saying.

 

There are premiums that are not reflected in Red Book.

Example: The Red Book guide doesn't list any premium for a Franklin with an FBL designation. It also has no premiums for any VAMs either, just to name a couple.

 

Generally speaking, red book values are usually on the high side, and this is especially true for more common/readily available material, but as mentioned before, there are exceptions. I could list more than a few (non variety) coins that I would happily pay full red book for in no problem conditions, and would still yield a very reasonable return.

As for the shops, all depends on the individual dealer; some may price using the red book, CDN, trends, or another magazine that overvalues most coins, but reprice depending on the buyer, while others will take what they can get. Keep in mind that all shops are not the same, and depending on what you're interested in, may not be the best place to buy, especially if you do not have a relationship with the dealer. In my area, there are a number of shops that are great places to overpay and/or get stuck with raw problems if one does not know what they're doing, and each prices using either the red book or trends. If the red book seems low compared to your dealer's prices, unless you're talking about select scarce to rare material, unless there are considerations not addressed in the book, or unless he reprices for you, it may be a good idea to take your business elsewhere. Depending on what you buy, there very well may be nearby dealers offering better prices and service even though they do not own shops.

 

What sorts of VAM premiums are you referring to?

 

There are many die varieties associated with Morgan and Peace Dollars...they were cataloged by Van Allen and Mallis (hence the designation "VAM"). Much like Overton varieties with capped bust coinage...some VAMs are rare and highly collected and thus carry a premium. Red Book fails to mention this.

 

Red Book is only meant to be an 'elementary' guide. When one tends to specialize in a collecting endeavor one needs to arm oneself with the proper and appropriate reading material........

 

Perhaps anytime you specialize in a particular coin, you discover things the Red Book doesn't cover.

 

Red Book can't cover every single coin ever minted. It still might be a trustworthy guide for average coins.

 

By George, I think he's got it......

 

Of course so.....

 

Any VAM premium.

Most Morgan VAMs, that I've researched the completed sales for, carry premiums above a FMV for a Morgan of the same year and grade that is not a VAM or hasn't had the VAM certified.

Some VAMs have a higher premium than others, depending on the rarity of the VAM.

Red Book does not reflect those premiums, nor does it reflect premiums for FBL Franklins.

Run a search for any Franklin half graded 60-68 any year, completed sales on any of the venues I mentioned in post #40. Then run a completed sale search for the same year and grade but include the FBL designation. You'll see the FBL Franklins sell for a higher amount than the same year and grade without the FBL designation.

Those premiums are not reflected in Red Book's price guide.