Roger Burdette's Saint-Gaudens Double Eagle Book

I am amazed the Burdette says that there are only 3.7 million St. Gaudens $20 gold coin accounted for. It seems like the number should higher, especially given the number pieces re-patriated from Europe. The coin certainly does not seem to be that scarce when you go to the major shows.

 

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JM, 3.7 MM seems alot and it's based on the sum total of all the annual years...and those yearly figures are meticulously documented by RWB (he's a stickler for not assuming anything). So yes, his totals might be a bit lower than others.

But that's still alot of Double Eagles even with the disproportionate number skewed to the 1920's commons and the 1908 NM.

It works out to almost 70,000 on average per year. Figure a few hundred die-hard Saint collectors....another 10,000 - 25,000 type investors...that means the rest on average taken up by the investment crowd.

What I find amazing is that the methodology he employs and references towards the end of the book implies or leaves open the POSSIBILITY that a good portion of the coins could still be out there.

 

Here's the table/data from Page 603 for those who don't have the book; I commented on this on Page 1 of this thread:

• 70,290,930 = total number of Saint-Gaudens coins minted, 1907-33.
• 26,951,006 = known melted coins
• 3,707,975 = total known survivors
• 43,339,924 = theoretical survivors not known to have been definitively melted or destroyed

I may have asked Roger why the last category is so high -- unless you think that the actual 1933-37 melting didn't take place to the extent we all assume, that figure (43 MM) SHOULD largely be part of the 27 MM (Known Melted Coins), enlarging that figure. I guess he is saying that the DOCUMENTED destroyed coins only total 26.9 MM so you can't assume the 43 MM are in that category (where 43 MM or large numbers of these coins could be, I have no idea).

Roger commented extensively on his book in a lengthy thread ATS; I'll have to see if he stated why he thinks any significant % of those 43 MM could still be out there.

 

The fact that low grade double eagles can sell for less than when there is a perception that the gold price is about to come down tells me that there are a lot of double eagles out there. The perception is that if it were not for the 1904 Liberty double eagle, that that type would be a lot tougher.

Yes, there are limited number of date and type collectors, but the coin never seems to be in short supply. One more fact is that slightly more than half of the gold coins that Federal Government issued from 1795 to 1933 were double eagles. I did realize that until I crunched the numbers for a FUN Convention exhibit.

 

Anybody know how many TOTAL Liberty Double Eagles survive or have been certified to this day ? Has to be a fraction for that of Saints.

That doesn't surprise me since the DE was mostly used to settle international trade accounts and the smaller denominations, though useful for commerce, would have to compete with paper currency.

 

I believe international trade accounts tended to be settled more with bars than coins because the bars tended to be 999 fine, and there was less abrasion loss in shipping with bars than with coins.

 

Yup, by total gold weight or value you are probably correct, Conder.

I was just going by numbers. Obviously, 1 bar could do the work of 100 Double Eagles or something like that.

In fact, Roger says that the reason they kept making so many DEs each year was not for use in trade (though the bulk were used in that manner) but because by LAW they needed DEs to back Gold Certificates.

For whatever reason, they didn't want bars or bullion to back the GC's -- just DE coins (or other gold coins).

 

Prices At The Superb Gem Level: MS-67's Saints are selling for $12,500 give-or-take for 1924's and about 10% higher, ~$14,000 for 1928's. Both are considered commons and plentiful in MS-65 and not that rare in MS-67, too. 1923-D's, another "common" coin, also in the mid-teens or thereabouts for an MS-67 (all ex-bp ~ 12% on GC).

However...there's a big dropoff for a coin that has lots more in the Superb Gem category and plenty (but not as many as the 1924 or 1927) in the Gem category, the 1908 No Motto. It sells for about half the price of the 1923-D, 1924, 1927, and 1928.

Roger's Estimates for the coins are listed first and then I have both the latest PCGS and NGC Population Census for the year. I have no idea really how to account for double-counting and crackouts by just adding PCGS and NGC totals to one another. Feel free to chime in.

1908 No Motto: MS-67/68 @ 2,001 (both rays) and MS65/66 @ 19,400. PCGS @ 1,027 and 40,745.....NGC @ 1,360 and 21,094.

1923-D: MS-67/68 @ 90 and MS-65/66 @ 5,500. PCGS @ 90 and 4,753........NGC @ 57 and 2,679.

1924: MS-67/68 @ 225....and MS-65/66 @ 79,500. PCGS @ 135 and 64,350....NGC @ 220 and 4,2841.

1927: MS-67/68 @ 60 and 48,000 for 65-66. PCGS @ 36 and 39,601.....NGC @ 62 and 24,830.

1928 MS-67/68 @ 140.......MS-65/66 @ 16,200. PCGS @ 117 and 15,112.....NGC @ 103 and 8,483.

You can clearly see the huge dropoff at the Super Gem (MS67 and up) in the 4 other commons (1923-D, 1924, 1927, and 1928) compared to the 1908. Hundreds available there in total for all 4 but a few thousand of the 1908 NM's. Ironically, the 1924 and 1927 dwarf the 1908 NM at the Gem level (MS65-66) by a huge factor, but the Wells Fargo Hoard really skewed the totals at that 67 level in favor of the 1908 NM.

 

If you believe the "experts" who are selling newly certified Double Eagle coins on television, the coins were shipped "over-seas". They are now being returned from auctions, certified, and sold on TV.

JMHO

 

Well, technically they're not wrong. The coins WERE shipped overseas for trade settlements. But they've been coming over for decades, not just in the last few years (though some recent hoards have increased from Europe I have read).

The stories told on those infomercials aren't bad in stimulating interest in the coins...the problem is the coins are marked-up so I am afraid folks might get a bad taste in their mouths if they keep buying at 25-35% markups above full retail price.

 

I can't determine what "full retail" is today, or what coin justifies purchasing same. The grading system that I believe would justify a fair resolution in a legal action isn't generally used.

It's believed that a fair outcome would be realized upon utilization/presentation of same in a judicial action.

There are existing partial precedents, but grading/pricing aren't believed utilizing same, so I'm still bewildered by prices, and hoping to locate the average of my desired Numismatic interests at only "full retail" pricing.

Where do I obtain that pricing schedule? I'm just searching for the coins I believe meet past published standards. It appears that quantity/quality/pricing/availability maybe generally unavailable/backwards.

JMHO

 

I go by the sales price plus bp on HA or GC. Shows like Rick Tomaska's were still 20% higher than the total price.

While no 2 coins are truly identical.....I do see many Saints (and other coins, too) with the same grade selling for within 1% of each other, sometimes exactly the same.

A few there now I believe on GC.

Good pricing data recent and historical is at Heritage and Great Collections.

Maybe dealers have electronic trading sites that are even better for intra-day activity but auctions are the real deal.

 

I would think his figures are quite accurate. We must understand that these are bullion in today's market. And sadly, those investors who buy them as such, not all of them are coin collectors. They simply see dollar signs. So every time gold spikes to near record highs a few more disappear forever.

 

1926-D vs. 1927-D: Re-read the Commentary sections in the book regarding how these 2 coins "flipped" in the rarity rankings in the late-1950's. It's an interesting story, and RWB does a great job of primary research to give readers the nitty-gritty.

The 1946 FCC Boyd Catalog by Kosoff & Kreisberg noted that at the time the 1926-D was #2 in the Saint series based on "....contacts with some of our finest cabinets." Not a bad source of information at the time, but largely anectdotal and based on memories, albeit from experts presumably with no incentive to lie or give inaccurate information. But no TPGs...no tabulated data on the internet....etc. Just "informed opinion."

A 1949 sale of a 1926-D hit $2,500 -- if there are higher-priced sales of Saints up to that time, even the high-end expected for a 1933 Saint that never got off the ground -- I can't find it. I'll keep looking in the book as it is voluminous.

But a few years later, once a few tiny hoards came back to the States from Europe, the price had fallen to about $500 for a top-quality 1926-D (The "Lima" Coin, MS-66+ CAC today).

Meanwhile, no more 1927-D's came back from Europe...other rarities kept seeing a few more here-and-there hoards from Europe or S/Central America....and then by the end of the decade more-or-less the 1927-D had moved to the top of the rarity rankings and the 1926-D and 1926-S (among others) had fallen a few rungs each.