Reverse proof Roosevelt dime most significant coin of century.

There are by far more reverse roosies in high grade than 1916-D. When you have a grand majority of very high grade like that, it makes the lower availabiltity of lower grades a moot factor.

 

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That's what drives me nuts about these "estimates" of survival rates. They're all too low in my opinion. They're based on the ridiculous idea that most of the good pieces have been slabbed. Bull! There are so many raw pieces out there in the wild that haven't been in a dealer's inventory in decades that most people have no bloody idea. The percentage of stuff that's slabbed is TINY - I don't care what older coin you're talking about.

 

I'm speculating there's a higher availability of lower grade 1916-d's that sell for about $1,000 and up, not a lower availability of low grade 1916-d's. Given the same demand for 1916-d's and 2015 RP's and many more high grade 2015's, true, the high grade 2015's won't sell for near as much as a high grade 1916-d, yet the 2015's would sell for at least the price of a low grade 1916-d. Of course the demand I speak of is not there as of today, but who knows what the future holds.

I'm still waiting for a link that says there's only 10k 1916-d's in all grades.

 

I find it hard to believe that 75,000 (35% of 216,000 minted) of 1916-D dimes are in high grade. In the 99 years since think of how many got damaged, corroded, worn from circulation, melted (90% silver), etc. This coin went through the Great Depression. Probably lots of them lost uncirculated status during that period alone.

 

I didn't say there were 75,000 high grade 1916-d's, my analysis compares total numbers regardless of grade. I stated clearly there are fewer high grade 1916-d's, but speculated there are fewer 2015's than 1916-d's in all grades, which given the same demand would mean that a 2015 could not sell for less than the lowest grade 1916-d.

One large advantage the 1916-d has over the 2015's is it has been hyped for almost 100 years.

Just for the record there were 264,000 1916-d's made, not 216,000.

 

There are several things in play here that make it very difficult to compare these two dimes (1916-D and 2015)...

1) We know 99.9% of 2015's are gem condition

2) We don't know how many 1916-D mint state exist, but can logically presume it is less than 35% of the total minted and absolutely nowhere near 99.9%

 

No argument there, I'll never say a gem 2015 will sell anywhere near what a gem 1916-d will sell for. However, given equal demand and speculating there are more 1916-d's in all grades available than 2015's, the 2015's should sell for no less than the lowest grade 1916-d. Of course the demand is not equal now, but the potential is there.

 

Unfortunately, with all the old-school dealers denigrating high end moderns, the 2015 Roosys may never have a chance.

 

Like you (or someone said), the old-schoolers are headed for ..... The Morgan only colletors that come into the shop all have walkers.

 

Yeah, it was me. I direct them the correct way to the funeral planners.

 

There's a flaw in this logic. The reason low grade 1916-D's sell for so much is cause there are not many in high grade and the high grade ones are very, very sought after. So essentially, owning one of these in poor grade still gets you into a prestigious club (say Augusta National) even though you may be a baggage handler.

In the case of the 2015's, just about all are in top conditon. So in this club all members are Platinum level (75,000 mind you). Just like your typical rinky dink public golf courses. Where's the prestige in that?

 

Do you have a subscription to PCGS Coin Facts? If so, they list the 1916-D Mercury dime to have an estimated survival of 10,000 without full bands (across all grades) and an additional 600 survival with full bands (across all grades) for a percentage survivorship of just over 4% of the original mintage.

This seems low to me, simply based upon reckoning and also the fact that PCGS has certified somewhat over 6,500 non-full bands examples and over 350 full bands examples. Of course, a fair number of these are re-grades, but we also are not counting ANACS or NGC certified coins as well as the large pool of never certified examples.

Regardless, I think a better comparable for this coin would be the special finish, metal and mintmark pieces produced by the US Mint over the last two decades or so.

 

Also, the bullion stackers have apparently forgotten their barber's name, and how to brush their teeth (if they have any), right?

 

Morgans and their collectors aren't going away anytime soon. Those coins get passed down. Some of the inheritors may sell the coins and not collect but they are replaced by new incoming collectors. Chances are you will be in the grave before ole Morgan goes out of style.

 

Funny, everyone else is complaining precisely about how today's and yesterday's collectors are not being replaced. Please do share how you have beaten the trend, or is it just whistling past the graveyard? By the way, ole Morgan went out of style while they were still being made. It's why you can't swing a dead cat without hitting a BU Morgan today. They melted a gazillion of them under the Pittman Act and still had gazillions more for Nixon to sell off. Nobody cared about them.

 

I'm not a Morgan collector but all this talk about them dying out is ridiculous. Not because it can't happen within our lifetimes (although I don't think it will), but cause there's more that indicates they won't than will.

With that said, their popularity was very high so you could make the case they will lose some ground, but completely fade away is not likely.

Haaa @ "went out of style while being made" comment. That is irrelevant at this point cause it eventually made its way to the top of the hill.

 

My general commentary is that so much of current series popularity makes absolutely no sense to me. It's almost as if the entirety of the coin hobby does stuff just to make me scratch my head and mutter to myself in disbelief. But then, 60 years hasn't changed much. My motto is "Eople-pay are umb-day".

The line between talking highly of a series and "pumping to dump" can be a very thin one occasionally, and I smell a whole lotta "pump and dump" among Morgans ever since the silver rise started in 2000-01. I was buying CC GSA Morgans for $50 a pop in the mid to late 1990's.

 

The prestige is in owning a coin with very limited mintage, so the 2015 may be even more prestigious than a 1916-d. The flaw in your analysis is believing there has to be only a few high grades to raise the value of lower grades. Tell that theory to those who bought the 1995-w ASE. The fact that they are all high grade, simply means there won’t be a huge premium for high grade. The fact that they are low mintage will cause a high premium for all grades.

The bottom line is no one on this blog (or anywhere), knows what the value of these 2015 dimes will be in one, two, three or 50 years. The only thing that's clear is they are a heck of a good deal at the mint's price.

 

Like I said, the Morgan date/mint mark collectors that come into the shop are all in their 70's. The younger collectors only collect them as a type coin, so they're looking for a high grade common date.

 

I really think you guys are giving todays kids too much credit for being different , I think they're not that much different than we were that were born in the '50's . When I was in grade school I thought WWII was ancient yet it was what 20 years ago , heck we had TV and transister radios , they were putting things in orbit . The only difference I see id todays kids don't play outside like we did it's all organized . Kids are kids and it will always be that each generation seems older or faster or just different till the next generation comes . Then it starts all over again . As for these Dime I did order a set for my Grandson who was born in 2015 . Also with over 50,000 already sold they will never be scarce let alone rare unless they start spending them and 40,000 get lost or they get as popular as Lincolns or Morgans which I don't see happening .