Reliable Coin Pricing sources

Recently I have been told that the CDN Gray Sheet or publications from CDN have lost credibility in its accuracy. I heard this several times at the ANA show in Chicago and other friends in the hobby. According to them, there PCGS prices or some PCGS application reporting the latest key sales has become more reliable. Also, there is some website that reports the latest auction prices for various coins.

This is interesting, particularly with the sales of early commemorative coins. In the Gray Sheet, overall commemorative prices have dropped, some significantly. However, dealers have been generally selling these way above the ask price, and the response I have received is that the Gray Sheet is way off, while also providing some profane adjectives. I am not sure if the prices guides are off or if the dealers are attempting not to take a loss, which I can respect.

Anyway, could someone provide some explanation to this and direct me to some of these sites showing the latest sales prices? Thanks!!!

 

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Graysheet has been going through some turmoil recently. The former manager died, and it is now under new management. There was a press release recently, saying that it is being rebooted, and should improve in the near future. You can read more about it here: http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=8848388#Post8848388

The PCGS price guide has traditionally been very "optimistic," and reflects more the kool-aid drinker's opinion of full retail for PCGS only coins. I don't really trust it.

The NGC price guide is a little bit better, but still represents a full retail price.

Honestly, your best price guide is going to be a search of the Heritage archives. It's a bit more work, but it represents actual realized prices - and you can see what people have *actually* been paying.

 

ebay sold listings is the best barometer for value.

 

On the PCGS site use the Resources tab and you will find the auction prices for all sales including Stacks, Heritage, Ebay, ect.

I like that because you can call up the photos of the coins. In many cases the prices are all over the place. A quick look at the photo usually tells why. The cheaper coins are usually poor quality and the nice ones get the higher bids. Many times the ones that are way up there have a CAC sticker on them.

 

Thanks for your wisdom and feedback. How do I get into the heritage site?

 

Google heritage coins
OR go here
http://coins.ha.com/

 

Any time I am interested in a particular coin I find myself looking at realized prices on both Heritage and EBay. Since I have occasionally sold on EBay, those prices give a good indication of what I could realistically turn around and sell the coin for. Heritage prices are not necessarily "pure auction" because they can enter bids on their own stuff, a practice EBay would refer to as "shill bidding". However, they have less variation and better photos thus more accurately conveying differences in quality in a given grade as was said in an earlier post.

I got burned a couple years ago buying a circulated 32d quarter at greysheet bid and thinking it was a great deal, only to find later that auction prices were much less. Since then I have almost stopped using it because even after looking up a coin I'd still go straight to EBay and Heritage to see it's realistic value.

 

There are no reliable price guides because numismatic values are not based on fixed prices such as spot prices on PMs or bid/ask on the stock markets. Ebay sold listings is a more accurate gauge for pricing than the traditional price lists, however, it's a longer process because you need to look at a range of comparable prices and condition and calculate an average.

 

A coin in my collection is worth what I can sell it for. And if somebody who "doesn't know what they are doing" pays more for my coin on Ebay than they could have through another auction house, then what they paid is what that particular coin is worth at that moment in time.

 

The big problem with Ebay are the large swings in prices. You can't trust it. One day there will be very few bidders and the next there will be so many that they kill each other trying to win a coin that they know nothing about.

 

To get a general idea of what I should pay for a US coin, I usually first look in the Red Book to get a general idea of the range. Then I'll scan auctions, VCoins and maybe magazine ads just for a comparison. If the Red Book says $100 and an Ebay auction lists it for $500, I'm going to furrow my brow a bit. Not to mention the opposite situation, if Red Book says $100 and an Ebay auction lists it for $5 then that's a huge warning and I'll run like a gazelle pursued by a lion (unless I know the dealer and special circumstances aside, of course).

Recently, I looked up 2 slabbed coins on VCoins and their prices matched the 2016 Red Book exactly. Not a spot of variation. I'm guessing that isn't a typical experience... but... maybe so?

 

Ebay reaches a very large market of collectors from all levels of our hobby. Auction houses reach the smaller insider level of more experienced collectors.

 

If people are paying consistently more on one site than another for coins then I really don't care how educated they are. I remember learning about supply and demand curves in my college Econ classes but I must have forgotten about the education curve.

Now I will agree that the higher price variation on EBay would affect the likelihood of getting a certain price. Also, has anyone considered the ease of use of EBay and the nearly unlimited return privileges? I don't think you can send a coin back to Heritage if you just don't like it? That also can influence prices.

 

Red Book is way over price to use as a guideline.

 

The only issue I have with any type of book, is that print can't change and a book price can't tell you the price tomorrow. Hence why I don't buy any Red Books.