Redbook values and cleaned coins

Discussion in 'Coin Chat' started by Dougmeister, Nov 6, 2013.

  1. mlov43

    mlov43 주화 수집가

    Criminy. I had no idea.

    Thanks for sharing the info.
     
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  3. ck1of2

    ck1of2 Member

    In regards to your comment on Ebay, isn't a coin worth what someone is willing to pay for it, regardless of the knowledge of the buyer? I suppose if you were to purchase coins with the intention to resell them, then you could and would most likely use Ebay as your price guide.

    Otherwise, I can see how your recommended methods apply to the common collector looking to purchase a coin without over paying. But then again, a coin is still always worth what someone is willing to pay.
     
    torontokuba likes this.
  4. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Is it ? If some uneducated buyer on ebay pays $250 for a counterfeit base metal Trade dollar, is that counterfeit actually worth $250 ? Based on your logic it is because somebody paid that for it, but I think you know as well as I do that it is most definitely not worth $250.

    The exact same thing is true of any coin. Just because some idiot, or some uneducated person grossly overpays for a coin on ebay, that does not make the coin actually worth that much.
     
    mammoth29 likes this.
  5. ck1of2

    ck1of2 Member

    I understand your point about a person being duped into purchasing a counterfeit piece, but most cases paying anything for a counterfeit piece is to much in my eyes. Although I do understand there is a small market for certain counterfeits and can demand some serious cash.

    As part of doing your research online and comparing comparable coin sales, you need to determine trends and weed out the outliers of the instances when someone will pay more than what the average trend for what a coins value to the majority of the coin collection community.

    What I guess I am trying to convey is what you may consider grossly overpaid may not be considered by others or even the one person who purchased the item. It all depends on what you can afford and how much you appreciate the item. If the coin in question is the last coin needed to complete a collection, and you pay more than going trend of the value of the coin, it was worth every penny to the collector.

    I have read similar threads were you describe this situation wonderfully and the message that I have received and has been helpful through my beginning learnings of this hobby is that all coins are not sold the same. There is this phenomenon that surrounds this hobby where you can't explain why a coin sold for the price it did and I think it goes back to my original message. I coin is worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it.

    I may be a misguided newbie, but I think this principle applies any situation where anyone is selling and buying.
     
    torontokuba likes this.
  6. torontokuba

    torontokuba Thread Crapper & Hijacker, TP please.

    ck1of2, I can see your point. Ebay is and will continue to be a serious source for coins, for many of us here. The deals on US coins through other auction houses will always have cheaper trends because their popularity will never reach ebay status. Many US sellers on this website confirm, that being closed to international bidders and international shipping equals less interest and less profit. I've seen US coins sell on EU auctions for double over what I can get them for through my US connections or ebay. It comes down to location, location, location...

    I don't know, maybe GDJMSP has never purchased anything with a real passion for the hobby? Maybe it has always been dollars and cents for him and his collections?

    I'm sure it's easier to sit back, not collect any more and write rational explanation to explain situations like bidding, where a new collector, full of passion, youth, energy, etc. overpays for a coin he really wants. I wouldn't dare categorize such an individual as an idiot or uneducated, but, that's just me.:oops:

    Unfortunately, the more I read some opinions here, the more the words passionless and uninspired come to mind.:(
     
    ck1of2 likes this.
  7. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Oh I used to be extremely passionate about some of the coins I'd buy. Anyone who has been around here for more than just a couple of years can attest to that. And yes, I've overpaid for coins myself. Any collector worth his salt has overpaid for a coin now and then.

    But doing it now and then is not what I am talking about. What I am talking about is doing it consistently, time after time. And that's what happens on ebay. And that's why the realized prices on ebay are no good when you are trying to find out what a coin is really worth.

    Think about it for a second. If the realized prices on ebay were good, then wouldn't every dealer be using them ? But ask them, there are several right here on the forum, ask them. I'll bet you won't find even one who does. Why not ? Because they know the same thing I know.

    ck - that is the danger in saying what you are. You just aren't putting a fine enough point on it. Yes, a coin is worth what someone will pay for it, but only when that someone is someone who knows what they are doing ;)

    There is a huge difference between what someone who doesn't know what they are doing will pay, and what someone who does know what they are doing will pay.

    Now anybody who can't understand that, and agree with it, well I'm sorry but I don't know a better way to explain it.
     
    ck1of2 likes this.
  8. torontokuba

    torontokuba Thread Crapper & Hijacker, TP please.

    Yes, each one of us presents some truth in what we are trying to get across. If ebay is your main and easiest source for coins, it is appropriate to use their prices as a guide, within reason and along with all the common sense you can muster.

    For swaps, because the various guides, sources, catalogues, etc. vary so greatly in their value fluctuations, I prefer to use any source, as long as it is applied to both sides of the same swap. This way, I can attempt to keep the value, be it too high or too low, at a fair level for both parties involved in the swap. How does that strike you?
     
    ck1of2 likes this.
  9. ck1of2

    ck1of2 Member

    I think the main problem with this hobby (career for some) and dealing with this topic is that the values of coins can be so subjective.

    I think, not to completely hijack this thread, if I would have to answer the OP, the Red Book is only one source to valuate the coin in question. Unfortunately their will not a a definitive answer to how much a coin is worth. It comes down to using all your resources to make a clear judgment to determine a price that your comfortable paying or selling a coin.

    It is a constant learning process. In fact that is why I chose to read this thread, to learn other individuals point of views on how coins are valued.

    GDJMSP, I appreciate your input and do understand your point, although I think we have different view points on "overpaying" for a coin. The only way to avoid such instances is to educate the misinformed individuals that "overpay" for coins so to make all that is right in the numismatic arena.
     
  10. torontokuba

    torontokuba Thread Crapper & Hijacker, TP please.

    Let us not forget the thrill of an auction, getting caught up in the bidding, all while going after something you really want. We can easily compare it to gambling in Macau, Atlantic City, Vegas, etc. There are plenty of poeple who gamble as a hobby or past time. They part with billions of dollars yearly and make up extremely large portions of a population in a given country. Should we attempt to call them idiots or uneducated? I don't see the correlation.

    Living there would be one thing, imagine what kind of a Homer Simpson you'd have to be in order to plan a vacation in one of these gambling hubs.;)
     
    ck1of2 likes this.
  11. ck1of2

    ck1of2 Member

    That is a very good point about being caught up with auction fever. Another reason why it is so difficult to pinpoint an exact price on a coin.

    As for the idiot statement, I was hoping that this discussion would drive out the fact that education is only part of how a coin is valued. I prefer to use the term - misinformed - for situations as mentioned.

    But yes, there have been times were I felt like an idiot driving home with empty pockets after a night in a casino. But that just drove me to learn, educate myself and practice so that I would not get burned again. I think this is similar to this hobby, and which is why I think I have grown so fond of it.
     
  12. saltysam-1

    saltysam-1 Junior Member

    As a gambler, you consider it an entertainment expense. You have the memory of it and the money you spent, but nothing else. Now if you consider memories as collectable, then it could be considered a hobby. Coins , however, have a physical presence. Different rules for different folks. One major difference is you can resell the coin but you can't resell the memory. If someone gets caught up in auction fever when buying a coin, labeling them an idiot or uneducated isn't the proper term. But they probably will admit to themselves it was irrational behavior. Just as gamblers do when they chase their losses. There needs to be control over your actions, even if it's the coin to complete your set. Perhaps rare coins have their own exception as well. Again, different rules for different folks. If the gambler bets the mortgage money or the collector uses it to buy a coin, then there may be another problem here that has to be addressed.
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2013
    ck1of2 likes this.
  13. JPeace$

    JPeace$ Coinaholic

    Love seeing all the different viewpoints. I was told by a highly respected coin broker, who was a grader at NGC and now works for Heritage, that using the Heritage auction archives is probably the best place to go for a price guide. He was not working at Heritage when he said that to me. Heritage has a wealth of sales data. You can see when coins were purchased as well. This helps with the fluctuations in the market.

    I buy a lot of coins on eBay, but have to agree with GDJMSP that many of the prices realized on the site skew the market data. I am very careful on eBay and simply walk away from a lot of auctions because the price is too high, IMO. I use Heritage, NGC price guide and CoinWorld for pricing guidance. I've heard so many contradictary comments about CDN, that I stopped buying it. I also agree about the coin being worth what the buyer is willing to pay, but only up to a certain point.

    Here's a real example that just happened to me. Stack's and Bower's auction ended last night. Coin I was bidding on had a Pop of 44 at NGC and 12 at PCGS. Only one level graded higher (MS66 PL) and there were less than a handful of those graded. Of the 45K MS65 in the Heritage archives, only 3469 were PL's and only a total of 20 were sold in the same year and mint mark I was bidding on. Their records date back to the 1990's. Earlier this month one sold for $1116, '12 $12,650, '11 $632, '09 a couple sold, '07 only 3 sold, etc... The coin I was looking at had a low POP and did not hit the market very often. So I bid on it and according to the NGC price guide, I paid about a 25% premium when you include BP. But the bottom line for me is that I wanted that coin and I was willing to pay a premium to get it. I won the coin, I'm ecstatic and don't give a rip that I paid over "market".

    If it's a common date and grade though, I know there will be many more to hit the market and I will be more judicious with my bidding.
     
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  14. ck1of2

    ck1of2 Member

    Great examples and well said. That coin was worth what you paid for it on that day according to your satisfaction. Maybe different story on another day. Now that purchase will place another data point for the next person to that will buy your coin or a similar coin. s
     
  15. torontokuba

    torontokuba Thread Crapper & Hijacker, TP please.

    If reading and gardening can be a hobby, so can gambling (as long as you can afford it).:p

    Speaking of memories...

    I know a guy who comes closer to being a real numismatist, than many of us coin collectors ever will. He buys coins for the sheer pleasure and memory of having owned it, he then documents the coin and the memory. He spends larger than normal sums of money at quality auction houses to get a specific coin, photographs it, writes about it, publishes it, then sells it (usually at a loss), only to begin all over again. The memory, photo, having the coin in his hands (not looking at it through some plastic slab, often scratched) and the write up are what keeps him interested in coins and their history. If the coin comes in a slab, he takes it out for the purpose of documenting the memory with a quality photo and a write up. Talk about passion, purpose, deep pockets and most importantly, memories.:)
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2013
    ck1of2 likes this.
  16. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Believe me guys, I understand the concern and/or dislike about my using the word idiots. But consider the following -

    "Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

    The concept that I am trying to get across is so pervasive that there has even been a new word coined - bidiots. That alone should tell you that there is much truth in the idea. But at the same time because I recognize that concern and dislike I also use the term uneducated. But there is a difference, an idiot does something because he is foolish or senseless. And uneducated person may do something due to no fault of his own simply because he is misinformed or doesn't know any better due to his lack of education on the subject. But when it comes to buying coins, both often have the same result - paying more than the coin is worth.

    The point of the entire discussion is to only use to good data and to base your buying decisions on good data. The Red Book does not contain good data when it comes to values. That is acknowledged as a cold, hard fact. And when you look at the facts regarding realized prices on ebay, a reasonable person is pretty much forced to acknowledge that that data is no good either.

    I have merely been trying to explain why that data is no good.
     
  17. ck1of2

    ck1of2 Member

    The fact of the matter is that the term "idiot" is plain and simple offensive and is only used to demoralize or insult an individual. There have been many intelligent people, including Einstein I'm sure, who have done "stupid" things and as a result of doing so that does not make them an idiot, unless your beliefs categorize them as so.

    Again though regards to Ebay, the consumers dictate the data and the prices for that marketplace, no matter who buys they coin. You could use your same logic for Heritage or any other online auction venue. Right?

    What the people pay is what it is worth. A buyes IQ does not dictate the value of the coin. It does not matter who the person is that buys the coin it only matters that they pay for the coin.
     
  18. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    It doesn't have anything to do with an IQ, a person can have a genius level IQ and still do foolish and senseless things. That is the definition of an idiot, a person who does foolish or senseless things. What it has to do with is a lack of knowledge, or the lack of a willingness to pursue needed knowledge before you act.

    If a person buys a coin and pays $150 for it, simply because he does not spend the time to find out that the real world value of that coin is only $100 - would you not say that doing that is foolish or senseless ?

    Yeah, maybe it is offensive, but it is also the truth. And sometimes, the truth hurts.
     
  19. Volante

    Volante Well-Known Member

    The trouble with Heritage is that it often doesn't have enough data points on a given coin to make an accurate valuation (at least with the coins I'm looking for). eBay, on the other hand, tends to provide a significant number of data points for any given low to medium price-level coin. As somebody else said in this thread, the trick is to discard the outliers—ignore the inflated prices and focus on the average price.

    eBay prices tend to be much more stable than people might expect. A little while ago, I tracked several months' worth of completed listings of "standardized coins" (NGC/PCGS G-4 1916-D dimes, MS-65 1945-S dimes, among others) and there actually wasn't a great deal of variability in the final prices.
     
  20. bdunnse

    bdunnse Who dat?

    An idiot is a stupid person. A smart person (e.g. a high IQ) who does a stupid thing is not an idiot. He is being idiotic.
     
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  21. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    In some cases that may well be true.

    Yeah, they may be stable and may not vary, but how do they compare to what you can find on Heritage ?

    Take one of those those two coins you just mentioned. This search of completed auctions on ebay -
    http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_nkw...ct=&LH_SALE_CURRENCY=0&_sop=12&_dmd=1&_ipg=50 - shows the majority of the asking & sold prices for NGC or PCGS coins to be $900-$1000, with a couple around $800. The single cheapest I could find was an NGC at $660.

    But this search on Heritage - http://coins.ha.com/c/search-result...Ne=304&Ntk=SI_Titles-Desc&Nty=1&Ntt=1916-D+G4 - shows the majority of the NGC and PCGS coins selling this year for around $700, with many less than that. The single cheapest being an NGC at $602.

    Any way you want to look at it those are significant differences and illustrate what I am talking about.
     
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