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<p>[QUOTE="World Colonial, post: 2498324, member: 78153"]Absolute rarity is a data point, nothing more. If there at least 250,000 and 10,000 series as I have guesstimated in my prior posts here, there must be thousands which are scarce or (near) rare.</p><p><br /></p><p>Most of them have low survival rates because they were struck centuries ago or if more recent, because they disproportionately originate from obscure countries with low populations and limited to no traditions of collecting.</p><p><br /></p><p>With NCLT, comparing them to circulating coinage is an apples to oranges comparison because practically all of them exist in their original state (or near it), nobody real wants them except as bullion in lower quality and they are more common in equivalent quality than 98% or even 99% of all circulating coins ever struck. Regardless of the coin, most of the time there is almost certainly far more supply than real collectors who will buy it except for speculation. I suspect that MOST buyers of these coins are buying it because of the low mintage which if true, means the price is either going absolutely nowhere or will only increase temporarily.</p><p><br /></p><p>Below is a link to coin from a series I collect, a 1726M (Madrid) Spain one real. Heritage provides an estimate of $1000 to $1500. I'd say a more reasonable value is probably $200 to $300. The NGC census currently lists 16 in 66 and 67 which is most of them. I also don't believe there are any duplicates because I equally don't see anyone other than an uninformed US buyer ever paying a grade premium for this coin. </p><p><br /></p><p>I expect the coin to go unsold but if anyone buys it, they will be "buried" in it. I see this coin ungraded regularly and despite its age, its likely the actual number in "high" grade is much larger then the current population counts.</p><p><br /></p><p><a href="https://coins.ha.com/c/search-results.zx?N=793+794+791+1577+792+2088+51+718&Ntk=SI_Titles&Nty=1&Ntt=1726&ic4=KeywordSearch-A-K-071316" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="https://coins.ha.com/c/search-results.zx?N=793+794+791+1577+792+2088+51+718&Ntk=SI_Titles&Nty=1&Ntt=1726&ic4=KeywordSearch-A-K-071316" rel="nofollow">https://coins.ha.com/c/search-results.zx?N=793+794+791+1577+792+2088+51+718&Ntk=SI_Titles&Nty=1&Ntt=1726&ic4=KeywordSearch-A-K-071316</a>[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="World Colonial, post: 2498324, member: 78153"]Absolute rarity is a data point, nothing more. If there at least 250,000 and 10,000 series as I have guesstimated in my prior posts here, there must be thousands which are scarce or (near) rare. Most of them have low survival rates because they were struck centuries ago or if more recent, because they disproportionately originate from obscure countries with low populations and limited to no traditions of collecting. With NCLT, comparing them to circulating coinage is an apples to oranges comparison because practically all of them exist in their original state (or near it), nobody real wants them except as bullion in lower quality and they are more common in equivalent quality than 98% or even 99% of all circulating coins ever struck. Regardless of the coin, most of the time there is almost certainly far more supply than real collectors who will buy it except for speculation. I suspect that MOST buyers of these coins are buying it because of the low mintage which if true, means the price is either going absolutely nowhere or will only increase temporarily. Below is a link to coin from a series I collect, a 1726M (Madrid) Spain one real. Heritage provides an estimate of $1000 to $1500. I'd say a more reasonable value is probably $200 to $300. The NGC census currently lists 16 in 66 and 67 which is most of them. I also don't believe there are any duplicates because I equally don't see anyone other than an uninformed US buyer ever paying a grade premium for this coin. I expect the coin to go unsold but if anyone buys it, they will be "buried" in it. I see this coin ungraded regularly and despite its age, its likely the actual number in "high" grade is much larger then the current population counts. [url]https://coins.ha.com/c/search-results.zx?N=793+794+791+1577+792+2088+51+718&Ntk=SI_Titles&Nty=1&Ntt=1726&ic4=KeywordSearch-A-K-071316[/url][/QUOTE]
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Rarity: Absolute or Conditional?
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